re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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This up coming offensive is going to be very closely watched as it’s the first real test of NATO war fighting doctrine.

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Ukrainian-backed Russian fighters remain in the Russian town of Novaya Tavolzhanka and have taken POWs. The psychological impact of that is hard to overestimate. The governor has offered to meet them to take back the POWs, Prigozhin has also offered to send an aide.

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The Russian governor hinted that Russian prisoners would most likely be killed by the Russian FSB, now shelling Russian partisans, and said that he hoped they would destroy everyone, but agreed to a meeting.

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Winston, instead of just shite posting, why don't you EXPLAIN why he's delusional.

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The upcoming Ukraine operation will be challenging & tough. UAF will be on a large offensive w/ new equipment going against RU defensive positions that have been reinforced for 6 months.

But without trained & well-led soldiers overwatching obstacles, RU defenses are useless.

Any attacking force is either “force” or “terrain” oriented.

That is, they are either given a mission to 1. attack an enemy force to destroy/defeat it, or 2. To seize ground (capture areas, interfere w/ enemy movement/resupply, regain desired terrain for future operations)

The upcoming UKR offensive, IMHO, will have elements of both.

What will be interesting is to see how the UAF have “task organized” (that is, places different equipment & types of units) in which areas of the front.

This is a hedge, but there is potential for several approaches:
-multiple efficient & effective combined arms “heavy” units conducting breaches & bypasses of RU defenses in key areas, regaining a lot of ground w/ SOF & territorials striking in the rear areas.

-a more methodical breach operations, massing heavy (armored) forces in fewer areas, with the idea of breaking through the front & breaking supply lines & encircling RU forces, while other “lighter” (infantry in “battlefield taxis”) break through & seize key terrain.

-multiple axis of advance across the front with smaller armor & light forces threatening several areas, with a large reserve ready to exploit success.

Those - and perhaps a few others I could provide but won’t - are all potential courses of action (COA’s)

But now, I’ll repeat what I’ve said so many times before:
-any of these COAs require extensive preparation of routes, synchronization of units, and intelligence/reconnaissance
-MOST IMPORTANTLY, all require extensive resupply & logistics planning and execution.

None of us - NONE - know how this will occur, or when, or with what forces, or which branches & sequels follow, or the results.

At the beginning of this war, in Feb 22, I found it easy to predict UAF would persevere.

I don’t have a clue what will happen next.

But I do believe Ukraine will retake ground and will continue to persevere.

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The governor didn’t show up. In a new video, the Russian anti-Putin fighters showed 12 POWs taken in Belgorod, some of them injured, and said they will be transferred to Ukraine for future exchanges. And they also praised Prigozhin

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Never seen this account before so take with a heavy grain of salt

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BELGOROD PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC IS EXPANDING!

“Already at least 4 towns have come under the control of the RDK and the Legion of Free Russia.

The Kremlin does NOT control these territories.

There are battles for Moore, Nekhotevka, Zibrovka, Arkhangelsk, Novaya Tavolzhanka, Shchebekino, Rzhevka, Nezhgolsk and Voznesenovka.”

Long live the free Belgorod People’s Republic!

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Most informative account on Twitter:
@ChuckPfarrer

There has not been a single day of the war that I have not learned something new thanks to Chuck’s hard work.

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Shebekino (and surrounding settlements) were absolutely pounded today. Hard to imagine what the game plan here is for authorities in #Belgorod.

Crackdown and pull troops from Donbas or leave things as they are and have border towns turned to ruble? No easy answer.

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PMC Wagner detained and interrogated no other but the commander of the 72nd Brigade, Roman Venevitin. Wagner and the 72nd Brigade shared positions in Bakhmut.

They detained the man, beat him, broke his nose, and forced to record a video admitting to firing at a car of PMC Wagner due to "personal animosity" towards them.

They accuse him of being drunk while doing so, speaking to him as if he is a subordinate. This is a complete demoralisation of the Russian Armed Forces who should not be any close to tolerating such behaviour of a PMC.

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