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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/29/23 at 4:59 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 5/29/23 at 4:59 pm to GOP_Tiger
LINK
Perhaps psyops, but in the past, Ukraine has always said that final decisions have not been made, that the plan was still in flux, etc.
quote:
"We have approved the terms for the start of the movement of our troops, the decisions have been made" , — Zelenskyi in the evening address.
Perhaps psyops, but in the past, Ukraine has always said that final decisions have not been made, that the plan was still in flux, etc.
1
Posted on 5/29/23 at 5:22 pm to GOP_Tiger
Yeah. Ukraine will do their own “maskirovka” with the counter. I look for assymetrical type attacks, along with pinpoint attacks on logistical areas.
Ukraine will have to be highly mobile and not overcommit to an attack if it gets bogged down.
As an aside, any strikes in to Russia proper with NATO equipment will probably open another can of worms politically.
Ukraine will have to be highly mobile and not overcommit to an attack if it gets bogged down.
As an aside, any strikes in to Russia proper with NATO equipment will probably open another can of worms politically.
Posted on 5/29/23 at 5:30 pm to SirWinston
quote:
my Eames office chair during the height of the "Mad Men" craze
Basic af lmao
Posted on 5/29/23 at 5:45 pm to SirWinston
void
This post was edited on 5/30/23 at 9:24 am
Posted on 5/29/23 at 6:54 pm to TexasTiger33
Isw update
quote:
Key Takeaways
Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine with cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones overnight on May 28 to 29 and during the day on May 29.
Russia deployed more S-400 air defense systems (probably at least a battery) to Belarus on May 28.
Former Russian Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev confirmed that he is now operating as deputy commander of the Wagner Group.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin denied former Russian officer Igor Girkin’s May 27 accusation that Prigozhin could stage a military coup against the Kremlin by arguing that Wagner lacks the personnel needed to start a coup.
Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning denied a Wall Street Journal report that Chinese Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui urged European officials to end the conflict in Ukraine before it escalates.
Russian authorities continue to forcefully integrate dioceses of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC MP) in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast into the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) demonstrating the integral connection of the ROC with the Russian state.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
The tempo of Russian offensive operations in and around Bakhmut remains notably low.
Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front, particularly focusing on Marinka.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast and are expanding fortifications in Mariupol.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled limited Ukrainian reconnaissance in force operations in Zaporizhia Oblast.
The Russian military command appears to be introducing doctrinal organization to some of its irregular formations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on May 29 that will further strengthen the martial law regime in occupied areas of Ukraine.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely not hospitalized as of May 29.
Posted on 5/29/23 at 7:25 pm to StormyMcMan
Another busy night for Ukranian AD, this will be the third night in a row and appears to be much like the first night with drones only.
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1663315085689798656
Edit: Fixed link
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1663315085689798656
quote:
Shahed drones launched towards southern and northern Ukraine, reportedly flying in the direction of Kyiv
quote:
UPDATE: "Pechersk district. Also explosions. Massive attack! Do not leave shelters!" - Mayor of Kyiv
Edit: Fixed link
This post was edited on 5/29/23 at 7:26 pm
Posted on 5/29/23 at 7:57 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
The Ukrainian Capital City of Kyiv is being Attacked by Drones and Missiles launched by the Russian Military for the 3rd Time in the last 24 Hours, over 100 “Projectiles” have been launched towards the City within that time.
LINK
quote:
The amount required for the reconstruction of Ukraine will surpass 1 Trillion USD, four times the amount of Ukraine's annual GDP. Deputy Minister for Strategic Industries of Ukraine Sergiy Boyev said at #GLOBSEC2023 that so many men get drafted in the country that more than 50% of workforce is female. Women are equally essential at the moment. @GLOBSEC
LINK
quote:
A High-Rise Residential Building in the Holosiivskyi District of Kyiv is currently on Fire after it was reportedly hit by Debris from a Shahed-136 Drone which was Shot Down by Air Defenses; Fire and Rescue Crews are On-Scene and attempting to Control the Situation.
LINK
Posted on 5/29/23 at 8:19 pm to StormyMcMan
I’m a little concerned about our ability to keep Ukraine supplied with air defense missiles, but maybe I’m just ignorant.
Posted on 5/29/23 at 9:49 pm to TigersSEC2010
It’s OK. Russia is almost out of missiles.
Posted on 5/29/23 at 10:28 pm to XenScott
quote:
As an aside, any strikes in to Russia proper with NATO equipment will probably open another can of worms politically.
Meh, NATO in particular the US make up the vast majority of all arms sold with Russia at a solid #2, there is no real #3 so most near all equipment is either NATO or Russian, it would be inevitable even without our help that US equipment would be involved.
Posted on 5/30/23 at 12:21 am to BrainKellyRespecter
quote:
It’s OK. Russia is almost out of missiles.
You may be more correct than you think.
There had been a significant drop off in long range missile strikes this year until this week and a greater reliance on drones. Even the last 3 days had a drone heavy ratio evidencing this, along with how such warfare is changing because of them.
Debris gathered from the more recent strikes shows that missiles currently being used were produced in Q4 of 2022.
https://breakingdefense.com/2023/05/weapons-tracing-shows-russia-firing-new-cruise-missiles-at-ukraine-just-weeks-after-production/
It will be interesting to see what debris from the most recent strikes shows.
While Russia has the capacity to significantly increase production given adequate parts and resources such data means it is quite likely that they are not getting access to these.
I also don't blindly believe the Ukrainian data about what they have managed to shoot down but there has been little to show damage wise from the most recent strikes, which suggests the Ukrainian AD stocks were not as depleted as advertised.
Whether either side can maintain the recent intensity in the coming weeks will be telling.
Edit: Clarity
This post was edited on 5/30/23 at 2:22 am
Posted on 5/30/23 at 4:17 am to OutsideObserver
Reports of drone attacks on Moscow again, seems to be quite a few.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1663401260538638336 Multiple Videos
Definitively building on the shaping attacks to pull Russians away from the Ukrainian front line it seems, though these attacks appear to have not met with much success.
This is reportedly the Russian MoD's response to the attack.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1663455692156542976
Also Prigozhin doesn't sound very impressed by the above response.
https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1663467706236936193 - Video
Edit: Fixed quote
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1663401260538638336 Multiple Videos
Definitively building on the shaping attacks to pull Russians away from the Ukrainian front line it seems, though these attacks appear to have not met with much success.
This is reportedly the Russian MoD's response to the attack.
quote:
Andrey Kartapolov, head of the State Duma Defense Committee, commented on the drone attack on Moscow.
"We have a very large country and there is always a loophole where a drone can fly by bypassing the areas where air defense systems are located"
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1663455692156542976
Also Prigozhin doesn't sound very impressed by the above response.
quote:
“Smelly creatures, what are you doing? You are cattle! Get your shite out of the offices you've been put in to defend this country."
The head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, harshly commented on the morning drone attack on Moscow.
“You are the Ministry of Defense. You didn't do a damn thing to step on. Why the f*ck are you allowing these drones to fly to Moscow? The fact that they are flying to Rublyovka to your home, and to hell with it! Let your houses burn. And what do ordinary people do when drones with explosives crash into their windows?”
https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1663467706236936193 - Video
Edit: Fixed quote
This post was edited on 5/30/23 at 4:21 am
Posted on 5/30/23 at 5:37 am to OutsideObserver
?British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 30 May 2023
On 25 May 2023, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reported that Russian military spending grew by 9.2 per cent in 2022 to USD $86.4 billion. SIPRI assesses this equates to 4.1 per cent of Russia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Russia's true military spending is highly uncertain due to the increased use of classified budget lines, especially since February 2022, and the lack of transparency.
Russia has only recently resumed publishing headline expenditure breakdowns after suspending this in May 2022. It is almost certain that military spending remains elevated, and this is putting pressure on Russian government finances.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 30 May 2023
On 25 May 2023, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reported that Russian military spending grew by 9.2 per cent in 2022 to USD $86.4 billion. SIPRI assesses this equates to 4.1 per cent of Russia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Russia's true military spending is highly uncertain due to the increased use of classified budget lines, especially since February 2022, and the lack of transparency.
Russia has only recently resumed publishing headline expenditure breakdowns after suspending this in May 2022. It is almost certain that military spending remains elevated, and this is putting pressure on Russian government finances.
Posted on 5/30/23 at 5:40 am to OutsideObserver
quote:
though these attacks appear to have not met with much success.
quote:
NOELREPORTS ???? ????
@NOELreports
The number is growing by the minute, what started this morning with 10 drones has now grown to 32 drones of which 11 were shot down and the rest crashed on their own on the ground or into buildings without exploding, based on Russian information.
It doesn't look like the drones were intended to do damage to targets. Maybe warheads were sacrificed in order to allow more fuel and a longer range. So maybe this was to pull some Russian air defenses from the front lines. And maybe force Russia to use expensive missiles to shoot down relatively cheap drones (tit for tat). And maybe for a morale boost for the citizens of Kiev. It could also be a test to look for holes in the defense with a serious attack to follow. Last possibility - a false flag by Russia in advance of another round of mobilization or other unpopular societal changes.
Posted on 5/30/23 at 5:41 am to cypher
Update: 29 drones shot down overnight
The Kyiv Independent May 30, 2023 10:14 AM
According to the information published by Ukraine’s Air Force, Russia launched 31 Shahed kamikaze drones over the last night.
Ukraine’s air defenses managed to destroy 29 of the total number.
Drones were launched from the southern and northern directions and almost all of them were shot down on approach to Kyiv or over the capital.
Russia launched yet another drone attack against Kyiv overnight on May 30, targeting Ukraine for the 17th time this month, the Kyiv City Military Administration said at around 5 a.m. local time.
The Kyiv Independent May 30, 2023 10:14 AM
According to the information published by Ukraine’s Air Force, Russia launched 31 Shahed kamikaze drones over the last night.
Ukraine’s air defenses managed to destroy 29 of the total number.
Drones were launched from the southern and northern directions and almost all of them were shot down on approach to Kyiv or over the capital.
Russia launched yet another drone attack against Kyiv overnight on May 30, targeting Ukraine for the 17th time this month, the Kyiv City Military Administration said at around 5 a.m. local time.
Posted on 5/30/23 at 6:04 am to WhereisAtlanta
quote:
the US make up the vast majority of all arms sold with Russia at a solid #2, there is no real #3 so most near all equipment is either NATO or Russian
Not really true, France is solidly #3 (Russia $3.2 billion in 2020, France $2.0 billion). Germany and Spain are #4 and #5 at $1.2 billion. So France and Germany combined roughly equal Russia for arms exports. The combined EU is more than double Russia's arms exports.
Posted on 5/30/23 at 6:10 am to Tigris
The Putinists are saying the Patriot is down again.
Posted on 5/30/23 at 6:45 am to Tigris
quote:
It doesn't look like the drones were intended to do damage to targets. Maybe warheads were sacrificed in order to allow more fuel and a longer range. So maybe this was to pull some Russian air defenses from the front lines
This is the most likely reason.
Posted on 5/30/23 at 7:11 am to CitizenK
Prigozhin real mad about today's drone attacks on Moscow:
Rob Lee has a comprehensive thread on the drone attacks.
Y'all, something like this has a huge impact on the civilian population. When ordinary people in Moscow no longer feel safe, they can't pretend that they are in a special military operation any more. They know that they are in a war. And that Ukraine will learn from this and send further attacks towards Moscow.
EDIT: Girkin agrees:
quote:
Smelly scumbags! What are you doing? Get your asses up from the cabinets you've been put into to protect this country! You've done frick all in order to advance! Why the frick are you allowing the arrival of these UAVs to Moscow? The fact that they fly to your home in Rubylovka, the frick with that, let your houses burn. What are regular people meant to do when UAVs with explosives crash into their houses?
As a citizen, I'm deeply outraged that these scumbags calmly sit on their fat asses smeared with expensive creams. Hence, I believe that people have the full right to ask them these questions, to these morons. However, I warned about it many times, but no one wants to listen. Because I'm mad, and I frustrate the bureaucrats who have wonderful lives.
Rob Lee has a comprehensive thread on the drone attacks.
Y'all, something like this has a huge impact on the civilian population. When ordinary people in Moscow no longer feel safe, they can't pretend that they are in a special military operation any more. They know that they are in a war. And that Ukraine will learn from this and send further attacks towards Moscow.
EDIT: Girkin agrees:
This post was edited on 5/30/23 at 7:18 am
Posted on 5/30/23 at 8:35 am to TigersSEC2010
quote:
I’m a little concerned about our ability to keep Ukraine supplied with air defense missiles, but maybe I’m just ignorant.
Feels like this is highlighting an urgent need to adjust air defense systems to be much lower cost and easier to sustain much high volumes of projectiles to last. Cheap drones are being launched to be shot down by AD missiles that cost upwards of $100k each depending on system.
Hypothetically you could launch thousands upon thousands of these cheaper drones at once across a large area of a country just to completely deplete the air defense and then have your way in the skies aside from air to air combat. You’ve eliminated air defense at a much lower cost than the enemy spent to have it quickly, probably easily because you don’t expect the drone to return anyway, efficiently from a cost perspective, and nobody died.
This post was edited on 5/30/23 at 8:52 am
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