re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Our news sources are pure propaganda. How does anyone really know the truth about what is going on? Lies are part of everything.

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Especially during wartime. What you need to be able to discern is what is news and what is opinion and what is just propaganda. It’s usually not that difficult. And for the news, you keep following it with a critical eye to look for consistency and rationality. If you read a story one day that Ukraine or Russia has done something dramatic, by the fourth or fifth day thereafter it will have usually become clear whether the original reporting was accurate. In other words, you have to be a thinking person.

Another important element is not to put any strong stock in random dudes on YouTube or twitter. The ones who claim they know “the real truth” are probably attention seeking fakes.

The last US presidential election should have been a master class in sifting through BS conspiracy theories. Those that were critical of news reports at the time and didn’t fall into YouTube rabbit holes were probably able to spot the bullshite as it was spewed. Anyone who read about the military raid for servers in Germany, and then followed the actual news for a couple days, should have been able to see that it was all bull.

War news has bull too. But if you pay attention and be critical, you can figure out what’s happening.

Sup baw

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Labs have been built in Ukraine. Whether it's to that extent. Who knows. Our government funded shite that led to COVID.

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Twentyseven biowarfare labs were built in Ukraine by the USSR. They were either converted to or in the process of being converted to civilian use. This requires secure destruction of organisms, and secure decontamination of equipment and entire facilities.

FWIW, either you didn't take biology in high school with dissection of critters or you have no idea what qualifies as a biolab. HUGE difference from biowarfare labs like the Stupid Phuckers (as in Russian media and Tucker) believe.

It is being reported that they are headed there.

Random tweets

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#BREAKING
On Friday an L410 TURBOLET belonging to the Polish Border Police which was carrying out routine patrol missions under the auspices of Frontex above the Black Sea, in international airspace, was intercepted at 60 km East of #Romania's airspace, by a Russian Sukhoi Su-35

The aggressive and dangerous maneuvers repeatedly performed by the Russian fighter aircraft near the Polish aircraft generated a high level of turbulence and major difficulties in controlling it

As a result of the incident, two combat aircraft of the Romanian Air Force and two of the Spanish Air Force in the Air Police Combat Service were pre-alert by the #NATO Combined Air Operations Center in Torrejon, being prepared to intervene at any moment

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LINK

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Kadyrov signed a letter addressed to Putin with a request to instruct him to redeploy the "Akhmat" units to Bakhmut.

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LINK

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Pervomayskoye, Sverdlovsk oblast, #Russia, 2 gunpowder warehouses are on fire, 18 more are under fire threat. Evacuation of 400 local residents announced

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LINK

Isw update

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Key Takeaways

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov stated their intent on May 6 for Chechen “Akhmat” troops to replace Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut on May 10.

Prigozhin and Kadyrov likely aim to frame the Russian MoD and regular Russian troops as ineffective and set conditions to blame the MoD for any Russian setbacks in the Bakhmut area.

While the potential deployment of Akhmat troops to Bakhmut could increase Russian combat power to some degree, the claims made by Prigozhin and Kadyrov are greatly exaggerated.

The Russian MoD has yet to respond to Prigozhin and Kadyrov’s coordinated posturing about Bakhmut and may have been caught flatfooted by Prigozhin and Kadyrov’s statements.

At least one individual with claimed but unconfirmed affiliation to the Ukrainian government attempted to assassinate Russian “A Just Russia” State Duma party co-leader and prominent nationalist voice Zakhar Prilepin on May 6.

CNN reported that Russian electronic warfare (EW) jamming has limited the effectiveness of Ukrainian HIMARS strikes in recent months.

Russian forces continued limited offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk and in the Kreminna area.

Russian forces continued to make marginal gains within Bakhmut and Ukrainian forces likely conducted a successful limited counterattack southwest of Avdiivka.

Russian occupation officials claimed that Ukrainian forces targeted Crimea with Hrim-2 short-range ballistic missiles.

Ukrainian sources reported that Russian authorities are continuing various measures to forcibly mobilize residents of occupied areas of Ukraine.

Russian occupation officials continue to plan for mass forced evacuations in Zaporizhia Oblast.

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Replace some of Russia's most effective units with some of its least effective? It's just too dumb. Not even Russia is dumb enough to do this.

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I’m inclined to agree. There has been no artillery ammo shortage around Bakhmut. It’s been constant shelling. It’s hard to accept any of these statements as true.

However, if the casualty claims are accurate, Wagner is combat destroyed. It’s defeated. It’s done.

And there aren’t 30,000 Chechens just standing around waiting for orders.

I guess we will have to watch this develop to see what’s true.

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 07 May 2023

Russia is almost certainly facing its worst labour shortage in decades. The Russian Central Bank surveyed 14,000 employers and found that the number of available employees was at its lowest level since 1998.

Over the last three years, Russia's population has reportedly decreased by two million more people than expected due to the impacts of COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine. Russia saw up to 1.3 million people leave the country in 2022, including many younger and well-educated people in high-value industries. The Russian Ministry of Communications said that about 10% (100,000) of the IT workforce left the country in 2022 and did not return.

Mobilisation, historically high emigration, and an ageing and shrinking population is limiting the labour supply.

This will likely lead to a reduction in the potential growth of the Russian economy and risks stoking inflation.

The whole drama was so bizarre. And then what will happen the next time that Prigozhin doesn't get the ammo that he thinks he deserves? Will everyone rehearse their parts in the show for another performance?

Is this true?