re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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You really think a large scale European-Russian war is a possibility?

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Yes, but not immediately. Normalizing economic relationships provides resources, in funding, for Russia to rebuild in a few years. Take Nordstream 1&2 which can be repaired, though not a cheap fix. Other than a few months last year, the price of oil has been in the doldrums since early 2020. Russia lost money on every barrel of crude oil it sold, either internally, or exported for 10 months that year. Jed Clampett is not reality. It costs real money to get oil out of the ground. In Russia it costs more.

I'm trying out a subscription to the Ukraine Conflict Monitor by Konrad Muzyka. Some notes from today's update:

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We assess that if Ukraine plans to conduct a counteroffensive during a period of good weather, then 5-20May will present such an opportunity.

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According to Ukrainian sources, the Wagner numbered about 40,000 men at its peak after its recruitment push among prisoners. Currently, according to various estimates, this force amounts to between 10,000 and 20,000. If the lower estimate is accurate, then Wagner will find it increasingly difficult to push further. Indeed, DPR’s forces were sent into the city to reinforce the group. This deployment could indicate a manpower problem on the Wagner side or a Russian sense of urgency to capture Bakhmut. Indeed, Russian forces in Bakhmut now include the 51st and 137th Airborne Regiments of the 106th Airborne Division, elements of the 98th Airborne Division, and the 57th Motor Rifle Brigade. The source stated that the reason behind the redeployment of the 98th Airborne Division from Luhansk to Bakhmut was that the frontline there was oversaturated with Russian units.

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This is in line with other reports. Wagner is not going to be able to complete the capture of Bakhmut on its own. It has run out of gas. Russia will only complete the capture of Bakhmut if significant MoD resources are put into Bakhmut to assist Wagner.

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Ivan Fedorov, the Ukrainian head of Melitopol, claimed on Thursday that a heavy explosion occurred in the centre of Melilopol, but it remains unclear what caused it. The city is beyond the range of known, fielded artillery systems. If there indeed was a missile strike, then it may have been conducted by the Hrim-2 system, which Ukrainians started deploying in 2021. So far, the system has been used sparingly, probably due to a lack of missiles. But given that we recently heard of explosions in Melitopol or Byrdiansk, it is likely that as Ukrainians increased the ammunition stockpile, we will see an increased tempo of such attacks, especially as we get closer to the upcoming counteroffensive. On 30MAR, the Russian MoD claimed they shot down an HRIM-2-fired missile in the Donetsk Oblast.

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If Ukraine is able to increase production of Hrim missiles, that could have a significant impact on their ability to attack longer-range targets.

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[In the Kherson region] Ukrainians’ attempts to push Russians 20-30 km from the river through artillery strikes continued. On Tuesday, Natalia Humeniuk, Ukraine’s Southern Command spokesperson, claimed that Russian troops had been withdrawing from the line of contact to remain out of the range of Ukrainian artillery. However, the reality is that we do not know how successful Ukrainians have been in attaining this objective. Russians can also undertake masking activities simulating a withdrawal, but in reality, their presence may be strengthened. Indeed, on Thursday, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that newly-mobilised Russian units had recently arrived in Skadovsk, where they are housed in various educational institutions across the city.

A Ukrainian journalist posted an image of a reported Russian notice to civilians living in Kakhovka, urging them to be prepared for urgent evacuation. Russians may attempt to forcefully remove locals from their homes soon. At the same time, assuming that the notice is real, it shows a genuine Russian concern about Ukrainian cross-river operations in the area.

The journalist claimed that there were explosions near an area where the Russian military personnel were stationed at a training range in Crimea. On the other hand, a Russian source stated that a Russian strike destroyed a Ukrainian base near the Dnipro River. We could not confirm either occurrence as no visual evidence exists to support these claims.

Nevertheless, we continue to assess that Ukrainian artillery strikes are battle-shaping activities. On the one hand, a river-crossing operation in the Kherson Oblast would be challenging to conduct. At the same time, we could not notice that a lot of equipment Kyiv recently obtained had amphibious capability (BMP-1s and Rosomak vehicles from Poland).

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You say that, but I saw his fast Finland and Sweden, two rather independent nations, reacted to Russia’s invasion. The sss as Nd with Poland who has always hated Russia.

Their reaction says it all

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Russia knows they can't stand up to a unifies NATO response. A large scale invasion into Europe is a suicide mission with no real positive outcomes for them.

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So, you don't believe what Putin stated in 2007 and what Russian news media states over and over again. It is a matter of economy more than anything else. That being said, Russia has a 5 or as long as 10 years before its aging demographics won't provide enough manpower to do. The more Russia's military is degraded, the more likely it can never happen. The sooner that Russia wins (if it can win) the more likely it can happen.

Your thinking is what pure fantasy is, considering Russia's actions the last 15 years.

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Ok, then tell me what a full scale European invasion looks like and what the Russians' goals would be. There's no situation that ends well for Russia nor are there any real attainable goals, especially in the medium to long term. Again, this is fantasy.

I’m with upgrayedd here. There is next to zero possibility that Putin launches a continental invasion, and if he were stupid enough to do so, an actual zero percent chance it succeeds.

Putin knows this too. Until Ukraine last year, all his imperial military endeavors have been chipping away breakaway sectors of places like Abkhazia and Transnistria. He knows Russia doesn’t have the capabilities to retake all the former Soviet republics in full with large scale military actions.

He gambled on Ukraine in two respects: 1) that Biden would roll over like Obama did with Crimea (another example of chiselin away at desired territories albeit more substantial) and 2) that a blitz decapitation attack on Kiev would work and Ukraine would fall as a whole quickly so as to avoid a prolonged invasion, knowing it would be a slog. Both bets failed miserably. The current conflict shows how limited russias military means are relative to whatever delusions of grandeur Putin once had. They may very well gain more ground in Ukraine by the time this is over but they’ve almost tapped out the potential to move the borders further any meaningful distance d.

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I’m with upgrayedd here. There is next to zero possibility that Putin launches a continental invasion, and if he were stupid enough to do so, an actual zero percent chance it succeeds.

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He waged cyber warfare on the Baltic States several years ago and shut everything down for a period of time, as a test case. Those would be easy to overrun at least to Poland but being part of NATO is an issue. The US dumping NATO would be a Russia coup for certain. Germany would have and likely still would sue for peace

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The goals laid out by Putin, included all of former Soviet influenced Eastern Europe, in the West and restoration of Soviet borders to its South in the East.

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That's so far beyond realistic and he 100% knows that.

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Russia knows they can't stand up to a unifies NATO response. A large scale invasion into Europe is a suicide mission with no real positive outcomes for them.

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That’s why Sweden and Finland ran to NATO. That’s why Ukraine wanted in.

Folks keep saying Russia is no threat, but obviously they are.

Part of their threat us their nukes. They push and push thinking the response from the West will be weak because no one wants an all out war. That strategy had worked before, but this time it did not.

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That's so far beyond realistic and he 100% knows that.

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We believe this to be unrealistic, but solely as a result of the armed resistance to Russia's armed invasion of Ukraine. If there is no more resistance, than the possibility of Russia continuing is not extinguished.

It is paradoxical and illogical to conclude that since the resistance to Russia's invasion has caused us to believe that Russia cannot continue with its stated plan to militarily conquer independent countries beyond Ukraine, then we must end the resistance and allow Russia to conquer Ukraine now. In fact, that is an insane position.

The end goal of pretty much all of the right wing so-called "anti-war" messaging is not to end war or conflict. The goal is to pressure the west to stop aiding Ukraine in its resistance to Russia's armed invasion. The only result of that would be to assist Russia in its military conquest. None of the right wing messaging is aimed at pressuring Russia to do anything.

So how can one interpret the messaging as anything other than as supporting Russia's armed invasion?