re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Oh, there are PTers who still think that Russia is going to capture Bakhmut? Bless their hearts! That's so precious.

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While I'm not convinced it still won't fall, there is a whole thread about how it has actually already fallen

The poliboard is simultaneously calling the US warmongers for supporting Ukraine and calling the US pussies for not getting into a war with Russia in Syria.

I am choosing not to believe those are going to end up in Ukraine. I hope they are going to use them to free up more modern tanks to send to Ukraine.

They can't be that desperate yet.

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Russia used Belarus to help train soldiers after the big mobilization last fall. Now, guys are as trained as they are going to get. Lukashenko has kept Belarus out of direct conflict with Ukraine, so there's no more reason for any Russian equipment in Belarus.

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Aw, hell. I gotcha.

Apparently I just skipped right over the word "training" in the post I responded to. I was thinking they had built up some more units on the border to launch some sort of offensive and I just missed it. Thanks for clearing up my horrible reading comprehension.

Uh oh

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“Unidentified aircraft targeted an ammunition depot belonging to Iranian Revolutionary Guard militia near the former Nasr Center building, in addition to targeting another site in the vicinity of Port Said Street in Deir Ez Zor centre, and ambulances were heading to the place”

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LINK

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urgent | #Naher_Media Reporter : An air strike targeted sites of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard militia in the desert of #AlBukamal city, near the Syrian-Iraqi border now.

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Would be the same town that got struck a few months back when Iran was moving weapons through it
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I'm not convinced it still won't fall,

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I am. I was pretty sure four days ago, but it's even clearer now.

Wagner is all but dead, for the time being. Prigozhin has known for a week that it's over. It's been blindingly obvious in his statements. Did y'all watch today's video, saying that Ukraine has 200,000 soldiers prepared for their imminent counteroffensive, and that 80,000 of those men are near Bakhmut?

That's just not the kind of thing that you say if you are about to capture Bakhmut; it's what you say when you want to publicly present an excuse as to why you did not take Bakhmut.

Today, we get this from Bloomberg:

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Yevgeny Prigozhin, the powerful founder of mercenary group Wagner, is preparing to scale back his private army’s operations in Ukraine after Russian military chiefs succeeded in cutting key supplies of men and munitions, people familiar with the matter said.

Seen as an increasing threat by the security and political establishment, Prigozhin is struggling with a manpower and ammunition shortage in Ukraine after he was barred from recruiting from prisons, his primary source of recruits, and deprived of supplies. Wagner troops so far have failed to take their main target - the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut - despite months of trying and staggering losses. Now, Prigozhin is planning to shift focus back to Africa, the people said.

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After weeks of complaining publicly that the military wasn’t delivering vital shells and other supplies, Prigozhin admitted ealier this month that Wagner would have to “reset and cut down its size” after the battle for Bakhmut is over. He recently touted Wagner’s capture of a village in the area, but didn’t mention that its population was only two people according to the last census.

There’s no sign at present that Prigozhin will redeploy troops to Africa, but the people familiar with the situation said operations there are likely to get more of his attention in the future as the situation in Ukraine has become more difficult for his forces.

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If you look at the last four days in Bakhmut, Ukraine has recaptured as much territory as Russia has taken, and Russia has almost quit attacking. Here's @NOELreports today:

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To the front. In the central part of Bakhmut, little has changed. Russian troops tried to reach O0506 last night, made small gains but were thrown back hundreds of meters a few hours later. In the north around AZOM it is quiet, in the south no changes either.

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@War_Mapper also has no changes for today, as does ISW. Russia has made no progress for the last four days, is barely attacking anymore, and Ukraine has spent the last four days opening up wider access to its two roads in and out of Bakhmut. Both of those roads are open now, and there were times a few weeks ago when neither one was open.

So, yeah, I think Ukraine has won the Battle of Bakhmut, at least for now.

Russia's bigger concern right now is for what it calls its Kuril Islands and Japan calls its Northern Territories.

Shoigu made a big speech yesterday warning Japan not to try anything.

Most of the troops went to Ukraine along with the equipment. Russia's military presence in the far east is much reduced. Which is not much of an immediate risk since Russia and China have relatively good relations. China's territorial ambitions are currently on the South China Sea. Any move on Siberia would be decades away, if ever.

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Normally one of Russia’s strongest areas military is their far East but they have absolutely scavenged that part of the country of men and material in order to keep the appearance that all is well to the higher society types in Moscow and St. Petersburg. They have their only operational Su-57 Felon squadron in the far East as far away from Ukraine as they can get them. That says something to me about their confidence in their prize fighter.