re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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that were true, then you'd think that we would be making more ATACMS, right? But we told Lockheed to shut down that production line to spend the money on PrSM, which is the replacement for ATACMS.

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Well the I imagine we don’t want to lose the ATACMS we do have while we wait on them to be replaced by the PrSM.

Or you’re right and the powers that be have determined that ATACMS is an unacceptable escalation. Either way it doesn’t look like they’re getting them anytime soon.

Maxar for starters. Then there is a British company which can and has intercepted cell phone calls and text messages. Being on Ukraine's own cell system makes that even easier.

Yet the claim that we are running out of artillery shells is preposterous. Several weeks, maybe months, Perun showed the line items in DoD where 10's of millions of unexpired rounds are set to be destroyed due an Obama edict. These are cluster munitions. When Obama couldn't get the ban on cluster munitions treaty approved, he did this. Meanwhile Russian hasn't signed it either and has used cluster munitions quite a bit when pounding Ukraine's trenchs.

In the industrial world, a maintenance manager isn't worth a crap unless he is hoarding spares not on the books. Is this a practice in the military?

ISW

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ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, March 12. This report establishes a comprehensive timeline of the rivalry between Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), which likely reached a boiling point over Bakhmut. The report also analyzes the Russian MoD’s likely intent to expend Wagner forces in Bakhmut and explores Russian President Vladimir Putin’s manipulation of this conflict to maintain the stability of his regime.

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Key inflections in ongoing military operations on March 12:

Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on March 12 that ISW’s March 11 report about her comments acknowledging Kremlin infighting is false and an “informational attack.”[50] ISW used accounts from Russian media sources as well as a Russian milblogger (who claimed to be in attendance) to report on Zakharova’s comments in an altercation with information space entrepreneur Igor Ashmanov during a panel discussion in Moscow.[51] A milblogger who attended the event quoted Zakharova as saying that Kremlin cannot replicate the Stalinist approach of establishing a modern equivalent to the Soviet Information Bureau to centrally control Russia’s internal information space due to infighting among unspecified Kremlin “elites.”[52] The milblogger did not comment on Zakharova’s denial on March 12 but amplified a social media post from another milblogger who claimed that the West (presumably ISW) misrepresented Zakharova’s statements.[53] The social media post, however, also blamed Zakharova and the Kremlin for failing to adopt stronger information space policies. Several other milbloggers confirmed that Ashmanov accused Kremlin organs of failing to create a trusted centralized information campaign but argued about how other attendees attempted to downplay his statements.[54] This milblogger discourse not only confirms that the incident occurred, but also that ultranationalist figures reiterated variants of ISW’s assessment that the Kremlin’s ability to control the Russian information space is diminishing.

Iranian State Media announced on March 11 that Iran has finalized a deal to buy Sukhoi-35 fighter jets from Russia.[55]

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.[56]

Russian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut but have not completed a turning movement, envelopment, or encirclement around the city.[57] Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner Group fighters captured parts or all of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut), although Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin stated that Wagner fighters do not control the settlement.[58]

Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Avdiivka and along the western outskirts of Donetsk City.[59] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces entered Krasnohorivka (9km north of Aviivka), although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims.[60]

A Russian milblogger claimed on March 12 that there is a high desertion rate among SPETSNAZ forces.[61] The Russian milblogger claimed that no SPETSNAZ units are at their full complement and that some SPETSNAZ commanders have fled their units despite having received generous salaries for the past ten years.[62] ISW has no independent confirmation of these assertions. It appears unlikely that most commanders have fled these elite units.

The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on March 12 that Russian military personnel from eastern regions of Russia die in Ukraine at per capita rates up to fortyfold of those of Russian personnel from Moscow City.[63] The UK MoD reported that Kazakh and Tartar minorities make up 75 percent of casualties among Russian military personnel from Astrakhan Oblast.[64]

Deputy Ukrainian Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk stated on March 12 that Russian officials have illegally deported 2,161 Ukrainian orphans to Russia.[65] Vereshchuk also stated that the total number of children deported to Russia may be approximately 150,000.[66]

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I did not know that. That’s good. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 13 March 2023

In recent weeks, Wagner Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin has likely lost access to recruiting in Russian prisons due to his ongoing disputes with the Russian MoD leadership. Prigozhin is highly likely pivoting recruitment efforts towards free Russian citizens.

Since the start of March 2023, Wagner has set up outreach teams based in sports centres in at least 40 locations across Russia. In recent days, masked Wagner recruiters also gave career talks in Moscow high schools, distributing
questionnaires entitled 'application of a young warrior' to collect the contact details of interested pupils.

About half of the prisoners Wagner has already deployed in Ukraine have likely become casualties and the new initiatives are unlikely to make up for the loss of the convict recruit pipeline. If the ban endures, Prigozhin will likely be forced to reduce the scale or intensity of Wagner operations in Ukraine.

Amid continued skepticism that holding Bakhmut is beneficial to Ukraine, Zelensky continues to insist that it is.

LINK /

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his forces are continuing to inflict heavy losses on attacking Russian fighters in the besieged front-line city of Bakhmut, where Kremlin-backed mercenaries concede the fight is growing more difficult as they approach the city center, bombarded by artillery and tank fire.

Ukraine killed “more than 1,100” Russian fighters in Bakhmut in the past week, Zelensky said in his nightly address, while 1,500 others were out of action because of the severity of their injuries. Russian equipment and ammunition depots were also destroyed, he said. The Washington Post could not independently verify his claims. Analysts have said the months of bloody fighting in Bakhmut have been costly for both sides.

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As I said, if Nord Stream was a Russian false flag operation, then it's a really bad one. Cuz the whole point of a false flag is to blame someone else.

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That it was at the deepest point of its length is quite telling. Much easier to repair in place.

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Kadryov is back in Moscow, meeting with Putin for the first time in a while. Watch the video and tell me if you think either man looks healthy.

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None of them ever look "healthy," but they don't seem to die either.