re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Interesting! Anybody on this board do this?

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Notable Russian sources, including those close to Wagner, report that the armed forces of Ukraine have a large strike group made up of up to 10 brigades currently in Chasiv Yar, preparing to conduct a wide counterattack in the Bakhmut direction.

They claim that Ukraine will probably be using new Leopard tanks and strike drones during this attack.

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LINK

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??Soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine says his unit attempted to enter Bakhmut yesterday (March 11), but their position got hit with an airstrike.

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LINK

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If anyone knows what’s going on Inside of Bakhmut it would be Rob, especially considering he was literally in the City with @KofmanMichael about a week ago talking with Ukrainian Soldiers and Commanders and from what he is saying the Bakhmut Front is in Trouble.

1: Bakhmut is no longer a good place to attrit Russian forces
2: The attrition ratio became worse once Russia seized the northern flank in mid/late-Feb
3: The attrition ratio in Bakhmut is worse than elsewhere
4: The % of Russian casualties from elite units is higher elsewhere

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LINK

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Interesting! Anybody on this board do this?

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Might be a little pricey because those are for profit companies which own such satellite surveillance. There are a number of commercial as well as R&D uses for it. Modern technology is that they can be a little larger than an open laptop and do the job. They might not have enough resolution to see whether a person is holding a spoon or fork in the hand but good enough.

LINK

Oh please. The White House and the NSC are full of whiny toddlers.

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There has also been, at times, frustration about Washington’s delivery of weapons to Ukraine. The United States has, by far, sent the most weapons and equipment to the front, but Kyiv has always looked ahead for the next set of supplies. Though most in the administration have been understanding about Kyiv’s desperation to defend itself, there have been grumblings about the constant requests and, at times, Zelenskyy not showing appropriate gratitude, according to two White House officials not authorized to speak publicly about private conversations.

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Meanwhile, our military actually wants Ukraine to win:

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“I do think the administration is split, the National Security Council split” on what weapons to send to Ukraine, said McCaul, who’s in constant touch with senior Biden officials. “I talk to a lot of top military brass and they are, in large part, supportive of giving them the ATACMS.”

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Few things I picked up on twitter

An expansion on Tartargami's previous thread about the Russian assault groups.

Twitter - @TartarigamiUA

Ukrainian MoD with an obvious but slick propaganda video, it ticks all the boxes to stir the heart and promises a "part two" in weeks to come, if this is them setting up the information sphere I would expect preparative moves to start happening on some side of their stated timeline.

Twitter - DefenceU

Update from Kyianyn on Bahkmut - sounds more optimistic than previous ones last week.

Twitter - @wartranslated

A report/video on the training of Ukrainian units in the UK

Twitter - @wartranslated

Rob Lee on Bahkmut - he was there a week or so ago so would have some insight into the situations realities. I find the mention of Russia only having a division in reserve in the shared screenshot interesting considering some claims (Scott Ritter, so huge grain of rock salt) that Russia has as many as 300k in reserve to push still.

Twitter - @RALee85


Edit: Clarity

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We don’t have a huge surplus of ATACMS. Pretty sure that’s why Ukraine isn’t getting them. We’re saving them for China

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We can make more. In fact, we even have a fair number of expired missiles that we can restore.

The reason that they haven't been restored is that we are spending that money on PrSM instead.

This past summer, the Senate Armed Services Committee allocated $100 million to restore ATACMS missiles, so that we would have even more to send to Ukraine if we wanted to, and the Pentagon/White House got that money taken back out of the budget.

So, no, the stock of our ATACMS is not the real issue. That's just a convenient excuse.

Not if the British give them Storm Shadow, which they have all but stated that they are doing.

Storm Shadow is better in that it carries more ordinance. It's slower and might be slightly more likely for Russia to shoot it down, but most will probably reach their targets.

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It's interesting to think about the fact that detailed satellite imagery is available to anyone who wants to pay for it can lead to lots of "random teenage students" discovering critical movements of enemy personnel and materiel.

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I think it's also interesting that Ukraine seems to have a working mechanism to integrate external random information into their operational plans effectively. Somebody over there is very smart, and others are willing to trust him (them).

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It really is man, we just dont have that many.

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But the reason that we don't have more is that the White House specifically took the money out of the budget for us to have more.

That's a choice. And the reason that the White House/NSC likely made that choice is precisely so that they could say that we don't have enough, because the NSC idiots are scared that giving ATACMS is too escalatory.