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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 2/15/23 at 11:48 am to
Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
5896 posts
Posted on 2/15/23 at 11:48 am to
quote:

The big Russian offensive that we've been hearing about is "likely more aspirational than realistic,"


I believe this as well. Russia had everything in their favor last February - a divided and distracted west, unproven Ukrainian central government, elements of surprise, internal Ukrainian turncoats - and nonetheless their invasion culminated in one month. Since mid March 2022 the map has largely been stagnant for periods of time with Ukraine rolling back Russian gains.

To believe Russia has learned and adopted to a point that they can achieve major offensive success a year later with conscripted troops against a better armed Ukrainian military and with the eyes and ears of the entire world on them seems silly.

I do think Russia will gain ground this winter and spring, but it will be exclusively on the Donbas or immediately adjacent territory. I also think additional Russian conscripts dug in will make the dramatic counter offensives by Ukraine less likely.

I think the Russian plan for 2023 will be a continuation of their current strategy:

1. Take territory in the Donbas
2. Terrorize Ukraine’s civilians with attacks on critical infrastructure
3. Withstand a Ukrainian counter offensive with western vehicles and weapons
4. Wait out Western/Ukrainian resolve and get an ceasefire that preserves Russian control of Crimea and its current landbridge through the donbas and kherson.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20970 posts
Posted on 2/15/23 at 11:55 am to
Remember a couple of months ago, when lots of people in this thread were worried about a big Russian push from Belarus to again try to take Kyiv?

Now, the question is whether this big offensive can complete the capture of Bakhmut and take another couple of towns in the Donbas.
Posted by molsusports
Member since Jul 2004
37520 posts
Posted on 2/15/23 at 12:34 pm to
quote:

Russia has upwards of 95% of their military in the Ukraine conflict.


got a link to this please



Discussed earlier in the thread in a post by GOP tiger.

quote:

“We now estimate 97% of the whole Russian army is in Ukraine,” U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told the British Broadcasting Corp.’s “Today” show on Wednesday.
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
150130 posts
Posted on 2/15/23 at 12:37 pm to
quote:

Roughly 700,000 Russian troops in three zones are getting ready to roll across the border and unleash hell on Ukraine. Putin is expected to give a major speech soon, detailing how the Washington deep state has been controlling Ukraine for its own nefarious purposes.

Potentially 3.5 billion people will hear the speech, rumored to touch on Joe and Hunter's corrupt activities, NATO malice, evidence of bioweapons research, possibly even a clandestine Pentagon nuclear weapons program in Ukraine.

We've already witnessed just how far the U.S. is willing to go with its anti-Russia, anti-EU agenda, when it brazenly sabotaged a $12bn joint Russian-German pipeline, so a clandestine Pentagon nuke program is within the realm of possibility.

The US/UK/NATO thought it was great sport to exploit Ukraine and turn it into a threat against Russia, with the objective of regime change and dismemberment, but they are only achieving the destruction of Ukraine, and by extension the destruction of NATO.

NATO's reputation and credibility are forever shot, and its capabilities exposed as a paper tiger.

Ukraine is Darwinism on the state level... I dub it FAFO Darwinism.
Posted by lsu777
Lake Charles
Member since Jan 2004
38026 posts
Posted on 2/15/23 at 12:46 pm to
poliboard lapping it up too
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
150130 posts
Posted on 2/15/23 at 12:48 pm to
The part about the clandestine nuclear weapon program is AMAZING
Posted by TBoy
Kalamazoo
Member since Dec 2007
28569 posts
Posted on 2/15/23 at 1:01 pm to
quote:

Potentially 3.5 billion people will hear the speech, rumored to touch on Joe and Hunter's corrupt activities, NATO malice, evidence of bioweapons research, possibly even a clandestine Pentagon nuclear weapons program in Ukraine.

We've already witnessed just how far the U.S. is willing to go with its anti-Russia, anti-EU agenda, when it brazenly sabotaged a $12bn joint Russian-German pipeline, so a clandestine Pentagon nuke program is within the realm of possibility.

Sounds like the target audience is the American right wing. I wonder when (if ever) the right wing will perceive that it is being used by Russia to aid Russia's empire building aspirations.
Posted by Burhead
Member since Dec 2014
2100 posts
Posted on 2/15/23 at 1:03 pm to
I've been thinking about something if he announces a second round of mobilization will he risk calling up the sons of European Russians? How many more bodies can he squeeze out of the Chechens and other minorities? When the privileged sons from Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other cities start coming home in body bags how much will the people stay silent?
Posted by Camp Randall
The Shadow of the Valley of Death
Member since Nov 2005
17572 posts
Posted on 2/15/23 at 1:38 pm to
Any semi-literate person should recognize much of the tinfoil hat type of story often comes from Russian styled misinformation if not Russian troll farms themselves.
Posted by lsu777
Lake Charles
Member since Jan 2004
38026 posts
Posted on 2/15/23 at 1:45 pm to
quote:

Sounds like the target audience is the American right wing. I wonder when (if ever) the right wing will perceive that it is being used by Russia to aid Russia's empire building aspirations.


no not right wing....trump only guys. in other words those that have an IQ under 100
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20970 posts
Posted on 2/15/23 at 1:53 pm to
The news on Leopard 2 tanks is not good:

quote:

Western allies will not be able to supply Ukraine with two full battalions of Leopard 2 tanks as they previously promised, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on Feb. 15, according to Bloomberg.

Only Germany and Portugal promised to send the A6 version of Leopard 2 battle tanks, with 14 pledged by Berlin and three by the Portuguese government, Pistorius told reporters after a meeting of NATO ministers in Brussels. "We will not reach the size of a battalion," he said.

A standard Ukrainian battalion consists of 31 tanks.

Meanwhile, Poland, along with Norway, Canada, Spain, and Finland, managed to put together a battalion of the older A4 model of Leopards, Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said, cited by Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.

However, according to Pistorius, many of these tanks are in poor condition and need repairs before they can be sent.

The battalion of Leopard 2A4 tanks will only arrive in Ukraine at the end of April, the minister added.


So, all in all, 48 Leopard 2 tanks are going to Ukraine. The article doesn't mention it, but the incomplete battalion is made a complete 31 tanks if the 14 British Challenger 2 tanks are added to the 17 Leopard 2A6s from Germany and Portugal.

In Ukraine, a tank battalion is three tank companies of 10 tanks each, plus one tank for the battalion commander. This is why the US promised 31 Abrams tanks. So, the battalion of 17 Leopard 2A6 tanks and 14 Challenger 2 tanks doesn't really divide into proper tank companies, but I guess they'll deal with that.

LINK
This post was edited on 2/15/23 at 1:55 pm
Posted by Burhead
Member since Dec 2014
2100 posts
Posted on 2/15/23 at 1:59 pm to
quote:

The news on Leopard 2 tanks is not good:

quote:
Western allies will not be able to supply Ukraine with two full battalions of Leopard 2 tanks as they previously promised, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on Feb. 15, according to Bloomberg.

Only Germany and Portugal promised to send the A6 version of Leopard 2 battle tanks, with 14 pledged by Berlin and three by the Portuguese government, Pistorius told reporters after a meeting of NATO ministers in Brussels. "We will not reach the size of a battalion," he said.

A standard Ukrainian battalion consists of 31 tanks.

Meanwhile, Poland, along with Norway, Canada, Spain, and Finland, managed to put together a battalion of the older A4 model of Leopards, Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said, cited by Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.

However, according to Pistorius, many of these tanks are in poor condition and need repairs before they can be sent.

The battalion of Leopard 2A4 tanks will only arrive in Ukraine at the end of April, the minister added.



So, all in all, 48 Leopard 2 tanks are going to Ukraine. The article doesn't mention it, but the incomplete battalion is made a complete 31 tanks if the 14 British Challenger 2 tanks are added to the 17 Leopard 2A6s from Germany and Portugal.

In Ukraine, a tank battalion is three tank companies of 10 tanks each, plus one tank for the battalion commander. This is why the US promised 31 Abrams tanks. So, the battalion of 17 Leopard 2A6 tanks and 14 Challenger 2 tanks doesn't really divide into proper tank companies, but I guess they'll deal with that.



Witnessing first hand what the peace dividend has brought upon Europe.
Posted by Burhead
Member since Dec 2014
2100 posts
Posted on 2/15/23 at 2:00 pm to
Not sure why the West hasn't approached Jordan to buy up their old stock of Challenger 1s.
Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
26257 posts
Posted on 2/15/23 at 2:35 pm to
quote:

Witnessing first hand what the peace dividend has brought upon Europe.


100%. What would those socialist loving welchers do without the US?

Been waiting on two faced Macron to back up his words of the last month. What do we get: Crickets.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 2/15/23 at 2:55 pm to
quote:

So, if we want to get picky, Ben Wallace said that 97% of Russia's army is in Ukraine (and he probably as also including Russian border regions), but the WSJ used the word military instead, and while the Russian navy and air force do indeed forces in Ukraine, those numbers are much lower than 95%.


Oh I would definitely agree that 97% would be a huge number to swallow as truth, seeing as that would mean that Russia has contributed north of 1.1M men which just doesn't even seem ballpark right.

Now, on the other hand, they are pulling troops from all over as seen in yesterday's ISW Update

quote:

The Kremlin continues to withdraw forces and military equipment from its northwesternmost borders with NATO to support the Russian war in Ukraine. The Head of the Norwegian Intelligence Service Nils Andreas Stensønes told The Barents Observer that Russian ground forces on the Kola Peninsula in northwestern Russia have been reduced to one-fifth of their initial strength numbers before the invasion of Ukraine.[55] Stensønes assessed that approximately three Russian battalion tactical groups (approximately 3,000 servicemen) stationed on the Kola Peninsula participated in the Russian invasion, of which up to half of their assigned personnel died in combat. Stensønes assessed that the Russian Northern Fleet has lost up to 100 tanks and armored personnel vehicles.[56] The Kremlin’s decision to deploy troops away from Russia’s borders closest to NATO supports ISW’s longtime assessment that the Kremlin is not concerned about a NATO conventional military threat against Russia.
Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
5896 posts
Posted on 2/15/23 at 2:56 pm to
quote:

Been waiting on two faced Macron to back up his words of the last month. What do we get: Crickets.


An article below on the dithering French and their tepid support. I think this conflict has exposed just how disarmed continental Europe is in 2022. There just isn’t a functionally military on the continent.

And quotes like this make me somewhat hope the Russians roll right into Berlin and Paris and take what they please:

“As for France’s tepid contribution to the war effort, officials argue that, as continental Europe’s premier military power, Paris has other security responsibilities, namely defending Europe’s southern flank, and must retain some capacity.”


LINK

My apologies to any Ukrainians who have to read this article.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 2/15/23 at 2:57 pm to
quote:

Roughly 700,000 Russian troops in three zones are getting ready to roll across the border and unleash hell on Ukraine. Putin is expected to give a major speech soon, detailing how the Washington deep state has been controlling Ukraine for its own nefarious purposes.

Potentially 3.5 billion people will hear the speech, rumored to touch on Joe and Hunter's corrupt activities, NATO malice, evidence of bioweapons research, possibly even a clandestine Pentagon nuclear weapons program in Ukraine.



But I thought the Russians were out there fighting Nazis
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 2/15/23 at 3:07 pm to
quote:

#Switzerland initiated the confiscation of $140 million worth of assets frozen in 2014 of people close to Viktor Yanukovych.

It is noted that "any assets that are confiscated will be returned to the Ukrainian people under an international agreement"


LINK

quote:

Conspiracy theorists, numerologists & schizoposters, take note: February 21st, the date when allegedly something big may happen, coincides with the 410th anniversary of Mikhail Fedorovich being elected Tsar by the Zemsky Sobor in 1613, marking the beginning of the Romanov dynasty


LINK
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 2/15/23 at 5:58 pm to
quote:


“As for France’s tepid contribution to the war effort, officials argue that, as continental Europe’s premier military power, Paris has other security responsibilities, namely defending Europe’s southern flank, and must retain some capacity.”


The French must have done some serious upgrades to their Leopard 2's to be able to use them to defend in the Mediterranean Sea, as the Leopard I's were not so waterborne...



Joking aside, claiming to be the premier military power on continental Europe and then providing token assistance to a nation defanging your biggest threat is pathetic, especially from a nation with France's touted history of liberty and freedom.

Both France and Germany seem to be doing everything right to seriously degraded their position in coming decades when countries like Poland are standing up far more readily, even if they have more reason to due to location.

Assuming Ukraine succeeds they will have a leader in prime position to parlay that into serious clout as well, though the loss of so many working age people and a lengthy/costly rebuilding of the country will be a huge task while still under the spectre of continuing Russian aggression.
Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
26257 posts
Posted on 2/15/23 at 6:23 pm to
Not only that, but there are quite a few members of the French government/parliament that are open supporters of Russia.

IMO the only ones in Europe that are willing to fight to defend their freedom are the East Europeans and the Brits.

Macron is a two faced fraud just like that socialist Trudeau in Canada.
This post was edited on 2/15/23 at 6:29 pm
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