re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

You or no one else will believe it but this DAT got a 99. No fricking shite.

But many brain cells dince have been sacrificed to alcohol, white powder and green herb.

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im willing to bet hes wrong on this one as well

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I agree.
I just don't think calling him a pro-Putin shill is remotely accurate

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He was for the Iraq War

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Ok?

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He was for the Iraq War Ok?

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He’s been pro US policy and anti US policy

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I think this is a lazy take. He's been wrong, but to say that he's pro-Russia or on the take is a lazy assessment. He's critical of failed US foreign policy and there's plenty of ammo.

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Wrong isn't strong enough. How about, the charge on Kyiv was just a feint. Also, Russian tanks are going to roll across Ukraine from the east because it is very flat terrain. Then after Ukraine made bridges over the Dnipro unusable that Russia was going to take Odessa in a week.

Finally, all of Europe is going to freeze, his sources in Germany confirmed.

For his book which was required reading by all army officers and his brilliance in tactics and strategy, he is way too smart to think all those things he said were true.

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He’s been pro US policy and anti US policyOk?

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His opinions aren’t for one side or another, are you dense???

He's also spoken at conferences in Russia and appeared on RT. He's at least a Russian sympathizer if not something more than that.

ISW Update

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The introduction of Russian conventional forces to the Bakhmut frontline has offset the culmination of the Wagner Group’s offensive and retained the initiative for Russian operations around the city. The ISW December 27 forecast that the Russian offensive against Bakhmut was culminating was inaccurate. The Wagner Group offensive culminated, as ISW assessed on January 28, but the Russian command has committed sufficient conventional Russian forces to the effort to reinvigorate it, thus forestalling the overall culmination of the offensive on Bakhmut, which continues.[2] The commander of a Ukrainian unit operating in Bakhmut, Denys Yarolavskyi, confirmed that "super qualified" Russian conventional military troops are now reinforcing Wagner Group private military company (PMC) assault units in an ongoing effort to encircle Bakhmut

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ISW does not forecast the imminent fall of Bakhmut to Russian forces, although the Ukrainian command may choose to withdraw rather than risk unacceptable losses. It is extraordinarily unlikely that Russian forces will be able to conduct a surprise encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut. Yaroslavskyi noted that the Ukrainian military command would conduct a controlled withdrawal of forces from Bakhmut to save Ukrainian soldiers’ lives, likely if the Ukrainian command assesses that the risk of an encirclement of the city is imminent.[6] Ukrainian Eastern Grouping of Forces Spokesperson Serhiy Cherevaty stated on January 31 that Ukrainian forces are still able to effectively supply units in Bakhmut and noted that the Ukrainian military command has developed several contingency plans to respond to Russian operations around Bakhmut.

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Russian officials are again overestimating Russian military capabilities to advance in Donetsk Oblast and in the theater in a short period of time. Head of the Donetsk People’s Republic Denis Pushilin stated on January 31 that the Russian capture of Bakhmut will allow Russia to advance to Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, both approximately 40km northwest of Bakhmut.[8] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin previously claimed that the average pace of Russian advance around Bakhmut was about 100 meters per day, and it took Russian forces eight months to advance from occupied Popasna in Luhansk Oblast and Svitlodarsk to their current positions in the vicinity of Bakhmut (distances of 25km and 22km respectively)

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Russian conventional forces may be replacing expended Wagner PMC forces by relocating them from Bakhmut to the frontlines in southern Ukraine.[12] The Head of the Ukrainian Press Center of the Defense Forces of the Tavrisk Direction, Colonel Yevhen Yerin, stated that Russian forces are conducting unspecified force rotations out of Kherson Oblast and that Ukrainian authorities are clarifying reports about Wagner Group forces arriving in the Zaporizhia operational direction.[13] Ukrainian officials first reported on Wagner forces arriving in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast on January 15, coinciding with the culmination of the Wagner offensive in Donbas with the capture of Soledar on January 12.

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The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) may be attempting to fully supplant Wagner forces near Bakhmut and frame the traditional Russian military command structure as the sole victor around Bakhmut, assuming Russian forces eventually take the city. The Russian MoD and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin have made competing claims over recent Russian gains around Soledar and Bakhmut following the capture of Soledar.[16] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces captured Blahodatne just west of Soledar on January 31 after Prigozhin claimed that Wagner forces seized the settlement on January 28

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Ukrainian officials continue to support ISW’s assessment that an imminent Russian offensive in the coming months is the most likely course of action (MLCOA) and further suggested that Ukrainian forces plan to launch a larger counteroffensive. Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov stated in a January 31 interview with Sky News that Russian forces are preparing for a "maximum escalation" in Ukraine within the next two to three months and may do so as soon as the next two to three weeks to coincide with the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

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Prominent Russian milbloggers continue to expose Russian military failures in Ukraine through increasingly public and elevated platforms. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed on live Russian state TV that Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) lost 40-50% of their personnel between the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and September of 2022, although ISW cannot independently confirm the accuracy of the milblogger’s assessment.[26] The public reporting of this significant figure, regardless of its accuracy, notably undermines efforts from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to minimize Russian causalities reported in the Russian information space

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Russia continues to weaponize counterterrorism laws to justify domestic repressions. Russian sources reported on January 31 that the Central Military District Court found Vladislav Borisenko guilty of a terrorist act and sentenced him to 12 years in prison for his role in a May 2022 Molotov cocktail attack on the Nizhnevartovsk military registration office in Khanty-Mansi Okrug.[29] This is notably the first instance of the perpetrator of an attack on a military registration office being officially charged with committing a terrorist act.[30] The apparent elevation of charges for such incidents from destruction of property and hooliganism indicate that the Russian judicial system is increasingly seeking to impose harsher punishments on acts of domestic dissent as the war in Ukraine continues, as ISW has previously assessed.[31] Russian President Vladimir Putin additionally signed a decree on January 31 that simplifies the process of implementing terror threat alerts in Russia.[32] The decree allows Russian regions to introduce an elevated "terrorist level" for an indefinite period, thus negating the previous 15-day limit.[33] The January 31 decree is an expansion of Putin’s October 19 martial law decree, which introduced varying levels of "martial law readiness" in occupied regions of Ukraine and Russian border regions.

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British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 1 February 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

In recent days, some of the most intense shelling in the conflict has likely taken place along the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine. This has included continued Russian shelling of Kherson city with artillery firing from the east of the river.

On 29 January 2023, local authorities reported another three civilians killed in Kherson, while two foreign-owned ships moored on the river were damaged, causing an oil spill.

Kherson remains the most consistently shelled large Ukrainian city outside of the Donbas. Russia's precise rationale for expending its strained ammunition stocks here is unclear. However, commanders are likely partially aiming to degrade civilian morale and to deter any Ukrainian counter-attacks across the Dnipro River.

This sums up folks like Tucker, MacGregor, Ritter, etc...

Operation "N" was the Polish Home Army sucker-punching the German Reich right in the gut. For three years. Several times over. Just beautiful.
? Imagine you’re a staff officer based way behind the frontline, a planner, and a good one. One day, you receive a letter from your neighbour, writing that she’s seen your wife regularly visited by another officer. Your Frau is innocent, and the neighbour never sent that letter, but you don’t know that; in rage, you rough the officer up, getting both of you demoted and transferred to the Eastern front. Ouch.
The Home Army did it to you.
? Or – you manage a plant in the heart of Germany, that manufactures, among others, artillery shells. Towards the end of April 1942, you receive official-looking mail: by the Führer’s order, 2 May is to be a bank holiday, so you must stop production. You do, just like hundreds of other plants, and then it turns out that the Reich Chancellery never wrote you. Oops.
It was the Home Army that cut down your artillery shells output.
? Or – you’re a private or an NCO in the Wehrmacht, and you find a newspaper someone left in the latrine. You read about extermination of Jews, about Gestapo and Police hanging out in the back and sending cannon fodder like you to the frontline, and about strong opposition to Hitler in the army. This opposition has a point, you think, and must be really strong to distribute such press wherever they want. Uh-uh.
It was the Home Army that made you start thinking about your own hide.
? Operation "N" was a huge enterprise of the Polish Underground, run between 1941 and 1944. It concentrated on disinformation, harming the Third Reich’s war effort, destroying the morale of the military, and sparking opposition to Hitler within the German society. The PSYOP was carried out by independent "N" Department of the Home Army Bureau of Information and Propaganda.
? The Department’s head, Tadeusz Zenczykowski, built an impressive organization: in mid-1942 it employed almost 1,000 people, working in 60 branches in the General Government, 40 in the annexed lands, 14 in the East and 7 in the Reich. They were native-level speakers of German, the wittiest writers, perfect translators, excellent printers and fearless couriers.
? They virtually littered the continent with 1,000,000 publications (200,000 of them in Germany alone) – fake periodicals, leaflets and announcements. They licked tens of thousands of stamps, sending letters to institutions, German military and civilian personnel, or their families. With a smile on their faces they denounced, slandered or threatened scores of faithful Nazis.
? They waged psychological war that translated into tangible results: flourishing careers broken, fewer artillery shells delivered to the fighting troops, and a bit less enthusiastic grunts on the frontline. A million of sucker-punches driven home.
Simply beautiful.