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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 1/31/23 at 12:49 pm to
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
73617 posts
Posted on 1/31/23 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

After the start of the war against Ukraine, most factories with localized production stopped the production of its equipment. In particular, Caterpillar,


We’ve stopped everything coming or going to Russia. Only thing that sucks is this means whatever parts stock we had in Russia at the start of the war is now stuck there.
This post was edited on 1/31/23 at 12:50 pm
Posted by Tigris
Cloud Cuckoo Land
Member since Jul 2005
13135 posts
Posted on 1/31/23 at 1:07 pm to
quote:

After the start of the war against Ukraine, most factories with localized production stopped the production of its equipment. In particular, Caterpillar


I had an interesting conversation with a major catalyst supplier last week. They had a factory in Severodonetsk that was one of their main production sites. Most of the buildings were destroyed by Russian shelling, but the catalyst production equipment largely survived and is usable. The Russians are now trying to get it started again to supply catalysts to their own chemical plants. Word is getting out that it's not going very well, what's being produced is basically crap. Getting catalysts may be a problem for some of the Russian chemical plants, though at least some of it can come from China. But the company I talked with was a major supplier to Russian industry and has no intention of selling to them in the future.
Posted by AGGIES
Member since Jul 2021
12319 posts
Posted on 1/31/23 at 1:21 pm to
quote:

I thought he must be bought by the Kremlin until I read up on his background.


So now he’s just anti-Ukraine bc America is supporting Ukraine
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20971 posts
Posted on 1/31/23 at 2:05 pm to
From former USAF meteorologist David Helms:

quote:

14-Day Forecast for Kreminna (through FEB 13)
Trending colder (towards normal temperatures) sub-freezing (<0C) after FEB 5 with increasing frost depth after FEB 10th. This is potentially the last long duration freezing period of the winter before March #MudSeason




Watch for an increase in activity then.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20971 posts
Posted on 1/31/23 at 2:42 pm to
LINK

Belgian buyer of Europe’s spare tanks hopes they see action in Ukraine

Freddy Versluys standing in front of German-made Leopard 1 tanks.

quote:

The hangar belongs to the Belgium defence company OIP and contains one of the biggest privately owned reserves of weapons in Europe. “Many of these tanks have been sitting here for years. Hopefully, now it is the time they finally see some action in Ukraine,” said Freddy Versluys, the head of OIP, as he toured the hangar.

“Here we have the 50 Leopard 1s,” he said, pointing. “We also have 38 German Gepard tanks, 112 Austrian SK-105 light tanks, and 100 Italian VCC2 and 70 M113 armour carriers.”

In total, his firm has about 500 armoured vehicles in stock, “probably the widest private arsenal of tanks in Europe,” according to Versluys, who has a long history in the military sector.

After completing his military service, Versluys spent nine years working for the Belgian army in a division that was responsible for the quality control of tanks and ammunition. In 1989 he joined OIP, a firm that specialised in optical equipment, where he eventually set up OIP Land Systems, a subsidiary company that bought up old military equipment, banking that one day there would be a demand for it again.

“Everything we do is legal here, we go by the books and have all the licences needed,” he said, shrugging at the “arms dealer” label.
quote:

In one of Versluys’s bigger deals, he bought 50 Leopard 1 tanks that the Belgian government decommissioned in 2014 for €37,000 each (about £29,600). “It was the market price because of the geopolitical situation at the time,” he said. “But buying those decommissioned tanks was a massive gamble for us. A big, big risk.”

The Leopard 1, which is from the 1960s, is lighter and less powerful than the newer Leopard 2 tanks, 14 of which Germany agreed last week to send to Ukraine, but German officials have said they would still be able to compete with a Russian battle tank.

For years, Versluys was unable to sell the Leopard 1s and Gepards as German law requires approval from Berlin for the re-export of its military equipment. But the chancellor Olaf Scholz’s decision last week on the Leopard 2s, which opened the floodgates for other European countries to follow suit, has opened up new possibilities.


Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent unprecedented western military support to Kyiv, had already led Versluys to sell 46 M113 light armoured vehicles to the UK, which then transferred them to Ukraine as part of a military package. Belgium, which has no tanks left in its defence stock, has explored the possibility of buying back the Leopard 1s it sold to Versluys.
quote:

Ludivine Dedonder, Belgium’s minister of defence, last week said it had opened talks with OIP but accused the firm of trying to make a “huge profit” from the sale. “The talks are still on, but I’m not going to pay half a million for a tank that’s nowhere near combat-ready,” Dedonder told Belgian media.

Versluys denied that the Belgian government had approached him, and said it was hard to estimate the price for which he would sell the tanks. “There is no point talking about prices right now because we need to check the condition of each tank and what needs to be updated,” he said.

He stressed that it could take months and up to €1m in renovation costs for each tank to get them ready for use in Ukraine. “These guys need a new engine, shock absorbers, the latest radar technology – the list goes on.”

Versluys said he had recently been approached by Ukraine’s state arms exporter and importer about the possibility of buying his tanks. The UK Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), a British-led group that consists of 10 northern European states, has also been in touch since Germany’s announcement about its Leopards, he said. “We are open to all options,” Versluys said. “But the price has to be fair, we are not a charity.”
quote:

At the hangar, Versluys dismissed accusations made by some in Belgium that he was trying to profit from the war. “Everyone thinks we are making lots of money, but look around you, so far the hangar is full,” he said.

“We took in these tanks when no one wanted them. Now, I would very much like to see them in Ukraine.”
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 1/31/23 at 3:54 pm to
Austria and Hungary now jointly saying they won’t send weapons to Ukraine.

Saw on Twitter but imgbb is apparently down for me to post the screenshot
This post was edited on 1/31/23 at 3:57 pm
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20971 posts
Posted on 1/31/23 at 4:32 pm to
WSJ:

U.S. Company Offers Advanced Drones to Ukraine for One Dollar, With Some Costs



quote:

A U.S. weapons maker is offering to sell the Ukraine government two Reaper MQ-9 drones for a dollar in an effort to help the country defend itself as it prepares for an expected Russian offensive.

The deal also would require Kyiv to spend about $10 million to prepare and ship the aircraft to Ukraine, and about $8 million each year for maintenance and sustainment of the older model drones, which currently are not being used in Ukraine.

The proposal would include a ground control station to operate the drones almost anywhere, according to a letter reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. The proposal was made by Linden Blue, the chief executive officer of General Atomics, which makes the Reapers, to Ukraine’s defense attache in Washington last week.

The White House, which would have to approve the sale, declined to comment. The Ukrainian government also declined to comment.
quote:

The Reaper, however, is a much more sophisticated drone with significantly longer ranges, speeds and capabilities. The Reaper has a wingspan of about 66 feet and can be armed. It can fly for more than 24 hours. The company is offering an older version of the drone, MQ-9A Block 1 aircraft, which would normally cost several million dollars a piece.

The drones could be used to gather intelligence as well as surveillance and reconnaissance, but have the ability to carry weapons.


Yeah, these can fire the JDAMs that we've sent Ukraine, correct?

quote:

The sale of the drones would still require the Biden administration to approve the transfer of the technology to Ukraine. However, General Atomics is proposing to sell the Reapers directly to the Ukraine government, as opposed to through the U.S. government.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20971 posts
Posted on 1/31/23 at 4:34 pm to
quote:

#BREAKING: US readying $2.2 bln weapons package for Ukraine that includes longer-range rockets for the first time, according to two US officials - Reuters


My bet is that these are GLSDBs, not ATACMS. We'll see. But even GLSDBs should have a huge impact.

Here's where GLSDB could reach (this is a 135km line, because the HIMARS is generally not going to go to the very front):

This post was edited on 1/31/23 at 6:33 pm
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30473 posts
Posted on 1/31/23 at 4:58 pm to
Vets, Uncle Prigozhin wants you!

How many of you are packing up and headed to Russia to join Wagner?

Hilarious Wagner recruiting video aimed at former US servicemen.

Twitter
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20971 posts
Posted on 1/31/23 at 5:23 pm to
U.S. readies $2 bln-plus Ukraine aid package with longer-range weapons -sources

quote:

WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The United States is readying more than $2 billion worth of military aid for Ukraine that is expected to include longer-range rockets for the first time as well as other munitions and weapons, two U.S. officials briefed on the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.

The weapons aid is expected to be announced as soon as this week, the officials said. It is also expected to include support equipment for Patriot air defense systems, precision guided munitions and Javelin anti-tank weapons, they added.

One of the officials said a portion of the package, expected to be $1.725 billion, would come from a fund known as the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which allows President Joe Biden's administration to get weapons from industry rather than from existing U.S. weapons stocks.

The USAI funds would go toward the purchase of a new weapon, the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) made by Boeing Co (BA.N), which have a range of 94 miles (150 km). The United States has rebuffed Ukraine's requests for the 185-mile (297-km) range ATACMS missile.

The longer range of the GLSDB glide bomb could allow Ukraine to hit targets that have been out of reach and help it continue pressing its counterattacks by disrupting Russia further behind its lines.

Reuters first reported on Boeing's proposal to field GLSDB for Ukraine in November. At the time it was expected GLSDB could be in Ukraine by spring.

GLSDB is made jointly by SAAB AB (SAABb.ST) and Boeing. It combines the GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) with the M26 rocket motor, both of which are common in U.S. inventories.


I don't know how long it's going to take Boeing/SAAB to put these things together, but everything I've read indicates that it shouldn't be long. If the spring offensive starts in May, these will certainly be there by then. And they will absolutely wreck Russian logistics in the South.

While I've read that these can be fired from other systems as well, these can be fired from HIMARS systems.

This post was edited on 1/31/23 at 6:19 pm
Posted by TheGasMan
Member since Oct 2014
3485 posts
Posted on 1/31/23 at 6:21 pm to
I just drove by Union Pier again in Charleston. Another shite ton of MRAPs and trucks on the dock waiting to be loaded up. Looks like all of the Bradleys went out on that first load.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20971 posts
Posted on 1/31/23 at 6:26 pm to
Former Italian Army artillery officer Thomas Theiner has a worthwhile Twitter thread on GLSDB, it's specs, and capabilities.

Oh, and for fun, here's the Boeing/SAAB promo video for the weapon.

Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20971 posts
Posted on 1/31/23 at 6:31 pm to
quote:

Vets, Uncle Prigozhin wants you!

How many of you are packing up and headed to Russia to join Wagner?

Hilarious Wagner recruiting video aimed at former US servicemen.


Don't post it on the Poliboard; some of them might actually sign up. That might be stupid, but I don't think Wagner makes its recruits pass the ASVAB.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15735 posts
Posted on 1/31/23 at 6:36 pm to
quote:

He was removed by some west point board by Biden. He was also earlier blocked from some ambassador or advisor role by the dems. Like many people today he seems to revel in being anti (the other party). So if being anti Biden is pro Putin then so be it.


He is either really stupid or has been bought by the Kremlin. His past says not stupid. There is a 3rd choice, just really trying hard to stick it in Biden's eye.

He has used "sources" from 'Germany" for all his predictions. All have been wrong and he obviously never looked at actual terrain. I have watched his interviews by Napolitano most weeks but never goes more than two weeks without being on.
Posted by Philzilla
Member since Nov 2011
2214 posts
Posted on 1/31/23 at 6:37 pm to
quote:

That might be stupid, but I don't think Wagner makes its recruits pass the ASVAB.

What did you get?
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30473 posts
Posted on 1/31/23 at 6:41 pm to
quote:

I don't think Wagner makes its recruits pass the ASVAB.


They do but passing for Infantry is 4.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15735 posts
Posted on 1/31/23 at 6:49 pm to
That is interesting. Thanks for the info.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15735 posts
Posted on 1/31/23 at 6:50 pm to
quote:

Don't post it on the Poliboard; some of them might actually sign up. That might be stupid, but I don't think Wagner makes its recruits pass the ASVAB.


I did it for Obtuse1. Maybe we will get rid of some losers, but likely just a lot of irrate comments
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8605 posts
Posted on 1/31/23 at 8:38 pm to
If they can get these a month or so before when they plan an offensive so you could use them long enough to force Russia to move it’s ammo and fuel stocks 90 miles from their front lines can be just as important as the 100+ western tanks that are coming. As soon as they come they should do just as they did when they got the HIMARS and launch a massive strike at targets they know about but until then couldn’t touch. The faster you get Russia pushing their supply lines back the better chance that planned offensive has. This is where the Ukrainian civilians can make a huge impact by keeping tabs on what is happening in the far rear that the Ukrainian intelligence might not know about. They need to have a large target package ready to go the second they can use those weapons.
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
138918 posts
Posted on 1/31/23 at 8:42 pm to
quote:

He's been predicting the imminent fall of Ukraine since last February. He's been consistently wrong about everything. He's been vocally pro Russia for years, even before the war. I suspect he's on Russia's payroll

I think this is a lazy take. He's been wrong, but to say that he's pro-Russia or on the take is a lazy assessment. He's critical of failed US foreign policy and there's plenty of ammo.
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