re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A gazillion dollars being laundered for starters

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Putin seeks to conduct a new major offensive and that he believes that Russia’s tolerance to accept causalities will allow Russia to win the war in the long run despite Russian failures so far.

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This is the one thing that Russia has going for it. The stoicism of the Russian people is legendary. But it has its limits. In WWII the Russian people were willing to keep fighting despite the fact their losses numbered in the tens of millions. Even in WWI the Russians bore casualties on a horrific scale. But nothing compared to WWII.

So the key question is why did the Russian spirit hold in WWII where the Russian losses totaled 27 million but faltered in WWI where the losses totaled on 1.5 million? Logic would dictate the Russian should have fought through in WWI and completely collapsed in WWII. But the opposite happened. Why?

I contend the difference is the nature of each war. In WWI, Russia went to war to fight for its influence over the Balkans. Russia itself was not threatened by the fact Austria-Hungary wanted to punish Serbia for the death of the Crown Prince. Russia, or at least the Czar, chose to go to war in 1914. WWII was different though. Russia did not choose war with Germany in June of 1941. Instead war was forced on Russia by Germany. And from the opening days of Operation Barbarossa it was patently obvious Germany’s main goal was the complete inhalation of not only the Soviet Union, but the eradication, or at least enslavement, of the Russian people. Thus, the Russian people, threaten with extinction of their entire culture, were willing to make whatever sacrifices necessary to see the fight through to the end. The difference in WWI and WWII was the fact in WWII, the Russian people saw the fight as one of survival.

So that brings us back to the war in Ukraine. What is the nature of this war? Is Russia itself threatened with an apocalypse in this war? Putin certainly has tried to paint this war as an attempt to preemptively stave off such. But has that message resonated with the Russian people? Do the Russian people see Ukraine as being a mortal threat to the very existence of Mother Russia?

That remains to be seen. My gut says no. But I’ve studied the Russian mind long enough to know oftentimes Westen logic cannot be applied to the thinking of the Russian people.

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So that brings us back to the war in Ukraine. What is the nature of this war? Is Russia itself threatened with an apocalypse in this war? Putin certainly has tried to paint this war as an attempt to preemptively stave off such. But has that message resonated with the Russian people? Do the Russian people see Ukraine as being a mortal threat to the very existence of Mother Russia?

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Russian state TV (Skabeeva, Solovyov, and Simanyan in particular) has been pushing the existential crisis, holy war, literally Hitler, literal demons, etc HARD for the last few months. Hard to tell how much effect this has on the average Russian. I want some of the interviews of Russians on the 1420 channel on YT and it seems very mixed but some of the babushkas in the rural areas are downright scary with their venom toward the gay Jewish Nazi demons of the West.


Solovyov went on a massive rant on his morning show today about the Fourth Reich and Nazis.

YT

The weapons module also didn't look big enough to house something capable of firing out to 15km either.

Even the CCMS-H being developed to replace the TOW is only spec'd to 10km and that is purportedly going to be a similar size to the TOW and that chassis does not appear able to support that sort of hardware without balance and weight issues

While I am sure they aren't going to show all their cards, all they talked as armament was heavy machine guns and rpgs in several videos. The former won't bother a MBT and the latter needs to brought into very close range.

So I believe those calling BS are certainly on the money. Unless someone better versed in armaments could point out weapons packages that would work?

Darth

You didnt factor in the February 1917 Revolution or the October 1917 Revolution into your discussion. Those started a civil war within Russia that lasted until the Red Army defeated the White Army in 1921. Both sides tolerated millions of deaths. I think your overall premise is that Russia needs proper motivation in order to tolerate large numbers of casualties. I don’t disagree , however “large numbers” is relative. Russia doesn’t consider 1 million casualties a large number. They won’t blink internally at a number like that , which is a problem for Ukraine. Since 1917 Russia has disengaged from two military conflicts : WW1 and Afghanistan. Both disengagements occurred bc of the same reason—economic and civil strife within Russia itself. Unless that occurs , they will continue to tolerate casualties well beyond what the Ukraine can tolerate.


My question is this

Where is Ukraine obtaining the new soldiers to use all of the munitions and weapons being sent there ? At some point they will experience a manpower shortage. My concern is that the arming of Ukraine is subterfuge for building a huge ammo dump or munitions and supplies foreign fights can use once the “global war cry” goes out. It’s a quiet logistical building up without the manpower. I am convinced that is what is going on now and that within 12 months various world leaders will begin making public statements suggesting troops should be sent to fight with the Ukraine.

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So that brings us back to the war in Ukraine. What is the nature of this war? Is Russia itself threatened with an apocalypse in this war? Putin certainly has tried to paint this war as an attempt to preemptively stave off such. But has that message resonated with the Russian people? Do the Russian people see Ukraine as being a mortal threat to the very existence of Mother Russia?

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Seems like it is just talk unless we see a full mobilization of people and industry. I don't think we have seen that as of yet.

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Seems like it is just talk unless we see a full mobilization of people and industry. I don't think we have seen that as of yet.

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Russia really cannot afford to lose young ethnic Russians due its demographic collapse, and neither can Ukraine lose many of its young men, also due demographics. Russia's future looks a lot like Allahu Akbar.

Great post Darth! I had this exact conversation with a co worker yesterday. Ukraine is a war of choice not a war of survival for Russia.

Another major difference is that in WW2 the US was helping Russia via lend lease, and Russia wasn’t under massive international sanctions. It took Russia a couple of years to get its chit together and become effective on the battlefield.

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WAR­SAW—In a sprawl­ing fac­tory com­plex sur­rounded by derelict build­ings, hun­dreds of tech­ni­cians are work­ing around the clock on one of the big­gest chal­lenges of Ukraine’s war: re­pair­ing ar­tillery and heavy ar­mor and re­turn­ing it to the front line.

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Pol­ish of­fi­cials say they ex­pect the Abram­ses will be re­paired in Poland in the west­ern city of Poz­nan, mak­ing the for­mer So­viet satel­lite state the lead­ing edge of a main­te­nance op­er­a­tion that stretches to the Czech Re­pub­lic, Ro­ma­nia and Bul­garia. Poland will also likely play a crit­i­cal role in re­pair­ing and main­tain­ing the Leop­ards, due to its arms in­dus­try’s deep ex­pe­ri­ence with the tank. 

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WSJ

It’s nice to confirm what most of us have already been saying, why would anybody publish where the repair depo for western MBTs will be? That’s almost asking for a Russian missile strike on a NATO nation.