re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia military doctrine is basically a Les Miles offense

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Russia military doctrine is basically a Les Miles offense

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That's a great analogy.

Michael Weiss of Yahoo News periodically talks with "Karl," an anonymous Estonian whom I believe that Weiss has previously said works in their intelligence service.

Here's the unrolled Twitter thread.

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"The amount and types of armor that Western countries have promised to send to Ukraine is noteworthy. We can presume that some countries will send a bit more than announced. It fulfills one criteria that will allow Ukraine to start a counteroffensive in the south this spring."

"The terrain there is bare, it’s a steppe. It wouldn’t be possible to advance there without armor."

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"From a military perspective Ukraine still needs two things. First, longer-range missile systems. Russia has taken its ammunition depots further away from the frontline. They are now 90-120 km away and out of HIMARS’ range."

"Yes, it hampers their logistics but it also hinders Ukraine's countering. It is more difficult to hit the trucks carrying ammunition than to hit a depot."

"Secondly, Ukraine still needs fighter jets. If they sufficiently have all three types of weapons [tanks, long-range missiles, jets], it would allow them to break through the frontline at least in the south in late spring/early summer."

"Ukraine says they’d need 350-400 tanks, but by the time of their spring offensive they will have around 200-250 including the modernized Soviet tanks given by some European countries."

"It is a really remarkable number. Most experts agree that 1 Leopard is worth 2.5-4 Russian tanks due to superior firepower and maneuvering ability."

"The delayed announcement about sending the tanks can postpone the start of the spring offensive by some weeks. The terrain would allow the offensive to start at least in the south in early April. Now it’s difficult to see it happen before May."

"It’s worth noting that Germany has sent Ukraine 3.5 times more military aid than France but France has largely escaped similar levels of criticism. If you compare the two countries’ military capabilities, France is clearly better equipped."

"Most Western European countries are well supplied with fighter jets. It’s one of the few areas where European militaries are good. A critical issue is how much ammunition can be produced and how fast can Ukraine do maintenance and repair works."

"People are talking about an upcoming large-scale Russian offensive. I am moderately confident that Russia itself already thinks it is conducting one. It’s just that none of the others see it as large."

"I am doubtful how good a picture Putin has about the status and readiness of its units."

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I 100% agree. Putin & co. think that they are doing an offensive now, as they are attacking in various areas to various degrees. They are using up men as fast as they get them, attacking towards Vuldehar, towards Orikhiv, south of Kreminna, etc.

And they have made progress around Bakhmut. The situation there is not yet critical, but it's very serious. South of the city, Russia is now close to cutting the city's one remaining supply route. If they can cut that road, it's likely that Ukraine will withdraw from the city.

And that ties in with the next quote:

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"As long as there will be no large and visible loss for Russia, Putin will try to avoid the next level of mobilization. Last time he announced it after the epic defeat in Kharkiv. Mobilization is one of the few things that actually decreases the popularity of war in Russia."

"Putin’s instinct is not to do it. Let’s hope that he keeps on delaying it."

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Yes! This is why a Russian capture of Bakhmut might, eventually, prove to be the event that enables a decisive Ukrainian victory.

If Russia takes Bakhmut, Putin will have a victory that he can celebrate, Solovyov can orgasm to live on air, BKR will be back in here to troll us some more, etc. Putin will then conclude that putting Gerasimov back in charge was the solution, and now the Russian army can continue to advance, and he doesn't need to do another big mobilization anytime soon.

Yes, Russia is still doing a bit of stealth mobilization to get more men to the front, but it's low key; it's not another major mobilization that would net Russia another 300k troops.

Even if Ukraine delays its spring offensive until May (so that they have time to fully form and train there new units with all the new NATO equipment), it's in Russia's interest to do the mobilization soon. Russia has about 1000 KIA/WIA per day now, and they cannot fight with anything resembling their current pace and have anything left with which to defend against the big Ukrainian attack in May. The sooner that Putin orders the next mobilization, the better trained those troops will be -- and he will need some trained troops to have any chance in that battle.

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"The terrain there is bare, it’s a steppe. It wouldn’t be possible to advance there without armor."

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This means the south and taking Crimea. The east is a series of hilly ridges, though tanks have been useful.

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This means the south and taking Crimea.

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Ukraine is not going to be able to take all of Crimea. It will possibly be able to take 2/3rds of the peninsula but the southern 1/3rd is mountainous terrain and the Russians will have that fortified. Ukraine will have to cut off the water supply and take out the Kerch Straits bridge and starve the Russians to the negotiating table. However I think if Ukraine can take more than 1/2 the peninsula there will be no way for Putin to stay in power so it would be a major victory for the crazy Ukies.

Tucker Carlson: The Memphis situation is a distraction by the MIC to take our attention away from their dragging us into WWIII in Ukraine. He must have gotten a late night call from St Petersburg

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from a distance of 15km ready to move into battle.

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Just based on this info I'd be willing to call BS

Just for reference

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The farthest tank on tank ‘kill’ was achieved at just over 4.7km by a Challenger 2. However, an Abrams successfully hit a T-72 at 8.6km with specialized munition, but was not able to knock it out.

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LINK

For the Abrams

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The tank cannon has a maximum effective range of about 3000 meters, and precise aim is required to make a hit. The self-guided missile, however, can — like Longbow Hellfire — be effective to more than 8000 meters, and the electronic brain continually corrects the flight path as necessary.

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LINK to PDF

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The tank cannon has a maximum effective range of about 3000 meters,

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In a good 2 tiered dug out defensive battle position, our trigger line was 3200m.

ISW Update

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Kremlin insiders reportedly told Bloomberg that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive to regain the initiative that may begin as early as February or March 2023. Russian officials, Kremlin advisors, and other unspecified knowledgeable figures who spoke on condition of anonymity reportedly told Bloomberg that Putin seeks to conduct a new major offensive and that he believes that Russia’s tolerance to accept causalities will allow Russia to win the war in the long run despite Russian failures so far.

Recent limited Russian ground attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast may be intended to disperse Ukrainian forces and set conditions for an offensive in Luhansk.[4] Russia is redeploying elements of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division from Belarus to Luhansk Oblast.

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The Kremlin confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is issuing preemptive pardons for convicts who serve in Russian operations in Ukraine. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on January 27 that he cannot provide additional information about presidential decrees on pardons because they are protected by "various classifications of secrecy."[8] Peskov’s statement confirms that Putin has been issuing preemptive presidential pardons to convicts, the majority of whom are likely recruited into the ranks of the Wagner Group.

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A visual investigation by a Russian opposition outlet confirmed that Russian authorities are deporting children from occupied Kherson Oblast to occupied Crimea. Russian opposition outlet Verstka examined photos posted to an "Adoption in Moscow Oblast" website that showed 14 children aged two to five from Kherson Oblast at the Yolochka orphanage in Simferopol, occupied Crimea.[11] Verstka noted that the Yolochka orphanage is subordinate to the Crimean Ministry of Health and specializes in the care of children with nervous system issues, mental and behavioral disorders, hearing and vision problems, and HIV

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Russian officials denied the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) report of explosions at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on January 26, without accusing Ukrainian forces of being responsible for these explosions. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi reported on January 26 that IAEA observers at the ZNPP informed him about explosions and detonations near the facility that indicated nearby military activity.[17] The reference to military activity is notable as the IAEA routinely fails to comment on the Russian military’s activities on and near the ZNPP. Russian officials claimed that no explosions occurred near the plant and that the IAEA observers likely heard sounds of an artillery duel a considerable distance from the ZNPP

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The Russian military command is likely attempting to restrict milbloggers’ frontline coverage to regain control over the Russian information space ahead of a possible new offensive. Alexander Kots—a member of the Russian Human Rights Commission under Russian President Vladimir Putin and a prominent milblogger—stated that there are rumors that Russian authorities will require war correspondents to wear bright blue press vests to identify themselves as journalists in the combat zone.[20] Kots and other milbloggers criticized the rumored decision, claiming that high-visibility vests will only help Ukrainian forces deliberately target war correspondents embedded in Russian units

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These plans for restrictions—if they exist—are likely a part of the Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov’s efforts to professionalize the Russian Armed Forces

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The Russian military command may also be attempting to resurrect its previously unsuccessful censorship efforts targeting the critical milblogger community.

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The Russian MoD’s effort to restrict embedded milbloggers in conventional units will not silence all milblogger criticism online, however. A Russian milblogger observed that restrictive measures such as government-distributed press vests will further solidify Wagner Group as the dominant source of independent frontline information since Wagner will not abide by such restrictions. The Russian MoD’s tactic to suppress information from the frontlines would create a vacuum in the information space for Wagner-affiliated milbloggers, who have a significantly stronger distaste for the Russian MoD, to fill. Russia’s use of unconventional military formations will also undermine the effectiveness of such regulations.

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Key Takeaways

Kremlin insiders reportedly told Bloomberg that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive to regain the initiative that may begin as early as February or March 2023.

The Kremlin confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is issuing preemptive pardons for convicts who serve in Russian operations in Ukraine.

A visual investigation by a Russian opposition outlet confirmed that Russian authorities are deporting children from occupied Kherson Oblast to occupied Crimea.

Russian officials denied reported explosions near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on January 26.

The Russian military command is likely attempting to restrict mibloggers’ frontline coverage to regain control over the Russian information space ahead of the new offensive. These restrictions—if planned—are likely a part of the Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov’s efforts to professionalize the Russian Armed Forces.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna on January 26 and January 27.
Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut, on the western outskirts of Donetsk City, and in western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian sources did not report that Russian forces continued localized offensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast on January 27.

Russian officials claimed that the conscription age will not change in the upcoming 2023 spring conscription cycle.

Russian occupation authorities are continuing to intensify efforts to integrate occupied territories into the Russian legal and administrative structures.

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We see it here all the time as posters repeat Russian talking points

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What are these said, "talking points?"