re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Yes but you would really need 5 of their squadrons or 60 aircraft to really control their sky. 24 F-26s and however many Mig-29s and Su-27s they still have airworthy. If I had to guess Ukraine still probably has 30-40 fighters left.

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According to wikipedia Ukraine has 43 operational Mig29s and 26 operational Su27s for a total of 69 operational fighter. Per my contacts in the UAF they have pretty good control of their sky’s because their SAMs keep Russian fighters out of range. The problem they are running into is that the Russian SAMs have the same effect on them. A few Ukrainian pilots have been trained and a few Migs have been configured to allow for wild weasel missions to suppress the Russian SAMs. That is where F16s would really help so they can suppress the Russian SAMs across the entire front instead of isolated pockets. They are also wanted F16s for bombing purposes since the F16s can deploy western guided munitions which their soviet era planes can’t currently use and so Ukraine is having to do bomb runs with unguided dumb bombs and predictably are missing their target a lot.

Yeah but that total was their aircraft in operation before the war started. Don’t hold me to it but I believe there have been 11 confirmed Ukrainian Mig-29s destroyed so far and I have no idea about the Su-27s. One was destroyed the first day of the war I remember. You don’t hear much about the Sukhois in UAF but I’m sure they go out of their way to protect those as they are the superior aircraft in bomb load, radar range and most importantly fuel range. Spare parts might be an issue but it’s an issue for the Migs as well. Their Migs are doing the heavy fighting and their pilots have done a fantastic job against all odds but yes you’re right that a modern jet like the F-16 that is multi mission capable with modern avionics would be huge for them. I would assume any F-16 Ukraine might receive would include LANTIRN pods (Low Altitude Navigation and Targeting Infrared for Night). We sent JDAM kits in a package to make their dumb bombs smart weapons but who knows if they have arrived yet. It isn’t an item hard to transport so I don’t see why they wouldn’t be already in country. I can’t recall hearing about them being used yet though.

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Yeah but that total was their aircraft in operation before the war started.

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No it’s their estimated number as of 12/3/22 according to the source that wikipedia lists.

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The scale of Ukraine’s own equipment losses remains unclear, but these have in part been offset by its receipt of replacement assets donated by NATO members and other allied nations.

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IIRC Ukraine had 33 Su27s to start the war and the # of operational Mig29s was around 30. Ukraine had over 50 Migs in storage but unable to fly. The spare parts from the west allowed them to repair those fighters or dismantle and rebuild fighters from western country and say that they were repaired Ukrainian Migs. All my sauce(s) in the UAF tell me that have lost aircraft but due to being able to repair the Migs they have more operational aircraft now than they did on 2/23/22 despite the losses.

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You don’t hear much about the Sukhois in UAF but I’m sure they go out of their way to protect those as they are the superior aircraft in bomb load, radar range and most importantly fuel range. Spare parts might be an issue but it’s an issue for the Migs as well.

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Spare parts is a much bigger issue for the Su27s than the Migs. No NATO member operates Su27s so the only spare parts come from Ukraine’s pre-invasion stock piles and what is able to fabricate. Mig parts are not an issue yet because Motor Sich actually was making spare parts for the Polish Migs and because China wanted to buy Motor Sich it was not targeted by Russia early in the war and it was able to move its equipment and employees to undisclosed locations in Ukraine. Plus Slovakia had just bought and received a large amount of Mig parts from Russia in 2021.

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Their Migs are doing the heavy fighting and their pilots have done a fantastic job against all odds but yes you’re right that a modern jet like the F-16 that is multi mission capable with modern avionics would be huge for them. I would assume any F-16 Ukraine might receive would include LANTIRN pods (Low Altitude Navigation and Targeting Infrared for Night). We sent JDAM kits in a package to make their dumb bombs smart weapons but who knows if they have arrived yet. It isn’t an item hard to transport so I don’t see why they wouldn’t be already in country. I can’t recall hearing about them being used yet though.

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Per my sauce(s) in the UAF their Migs have not been upgraded to use the JDAMs. The Slovakian Migs and Polish Migs are have been updated to be use them, but they have not been handed over to Ukraine yet.

I would say it's a combination of logistics and psychological warfare as well.

Psychologically by training in Belarus they can continue to create an impression they may be reopening a northern front while also tempting the Ukrainians to attack those troop concentrations, bringing Belarus completely into the war and creating a genuine northern front.

Because of this they have a relatively safe space close to the front to train and have forces to move on potential uprisings in Belarus if the population gets ideas after Russia's "successes" in Ukraine.

Plus they can get Belarus to foot the bill for the training and conserve their own supplies.

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It is looking like they have completely used Prigozhin and Wagner through the winter to maintain a semblance of pressure while they prepped for spring offensives and are now making the probing attacks along the line to look for any potential weak spots to exploit once they kick off as well.

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You may be right, there are signals that Putin is throwing his support behind the Russian military and moving his support away from Wagner. That fits well with your theory.

Very informative, thank you. It would be good to hear more from Thomas Wiegold as he seems to have an excellent grasp of the situation there regarding their military and issues pertaining to support for the war.

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Wasn't Motor Sich making engines for Russian helicopters and exposed?

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One executive was busted but not the whole company. The helicopter engine factory is in Zaporizhzhia city but the jet engine factory was in Kharkiv before the invasion. I don’t know where it is now.

Pack it up baws, it is over. Russia is demonstrating its Marker autonomous fighting robot thingy.

What do you want to bet it has a Russian inside running it? Now we know what they needed all the washing machines for. Thing is running on a patchwork of Bosch wash cycle microchips. After 15 minutes it just starts spinning in place.

RT Twitter video




BTW the demo video is several years old, I linked to the original but it is oddly popping up "all over" Twitter today.

A couple of Russian state TV clips:

The first is an interesting exchange between a hardliner and a more realistic talking head

YT

The second is from Solovyov's evening show and starts with Solo acting like a nut then various talking heads discussing the Leopard 2s and various other tripe.

YT

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US is sending the A2 Abrams without the uranium armor and not the older A1.