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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/9/23 at 10:31 pm to ghost2most
Posted on 1/9/23 at 10:31 pm to ghost2most
quote:
I mean how do they scour the thousands of videos to determine what’s real, not duplicates, etc?
Kind of mind boggling
Yes, but people always tag them and make sure that they see the videos, and the OSint community always has people who are particularly interested in specific vehicles, so there are sometimes threads about whether a particular loss is new or not. Usually, supporters of both sides in the conflict are eager to point out when a particular video is thought to be a new loss of one of their side's vehicles, and it turns out that the loss is actually old and already documented.
This post was edited on 1/9/23 at 10:38 pm
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Posted on 1/9/23 at 11:05 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
They are just too big and heavy and have a gas turbine engine that you’d have to train them how to maintain it.
Don't they have commercial jet engine maintenance shops at all? Same type of engine. Gas turbines are used in other things too such as compressors for natural gas. Dow uses them for high pressure pumps to wash their membrane cells for the Chlor Alkai unit at Plaquemines. The technology is not even close to new but decades old. Then again former Soviet state so outside of aircraft likely not used due decades behind the West.
Posted on 1/9/23 at 11:35 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
This is what's already happening. Poland is sending its T-72s to Ukraine on a rolling basis, as it updates them. It's able to do this because of the Abrams and K2 Panther tanks that it's acquiring now. The US and the Netherlands jointly paid for 90 Czech T-72s to get upgraded with new electronics and optics, and those deliveries are just starting. Czechia is giving those tanks because Germany is giving it Leopards to replace them.
Poland has not committed to giving up all of its T72s. It still has 100-150 T72s that have not been committed to Ukraine yet. I don’t know exactly what the hold up is but for some those have not been committed to Ukraine. Bulgaria has 250 T72s in storage and another 160 in active service. Bulgaria hasn’t even hinted at giving its tanks to Ukraine. Hungary has 164 T72s, but its president is a friend of Putin’s so I doubt those ever go to Ukraine. With the other 150 Polish tanks and the Bulgarian T72s that will get Ukraine up to 2000 MBTs which will allow Ukraine to fight with the Russians and drive them back and give the western bureaucrats and politicians time to figure out what tanks the west can equip the Ukrainians with and how to do it without weakening NATO.
quote:
The real problem is that the Leopard 2 is the only (non-Russian) European tank in current production, and I think that the Germans were only making a couple of them a month before the war, and I don't know how much production has increased. That's why Poland's military partnership with South Korea is so important -- it's eventually going to mean a K2 Panther factory in Poland.
Correct according to google they are only making 2 per month. However, that is not the reason why Poland selected the K2. Poland selected the K2 because South Korea agreed to let Poland produce it domestically and Poland was not allowed to party in the French and German Eurotank project.
Posted on 1/9/23 at 11:52 pm to CitizenK
I’m not saying they couldn’t figure out the Abrams and how to maintain it, just that it would take time which Ukraine really doesn’t have. They know the T-72 backwards and forwards that is obviously the best solution but I’m curious to know just how many T-64 and T-72s are available outside Russia that could be sent to Ukraine that haven’t already been promised. Poland is giving them just about all of theirs and other countries with smaller militaries have given tanks also. I just wonder how many are still even there to obtain by trading them out with western tanks. Ukraine is asking for 300 tanks and 700 IFVs. I actually think that’s a reasonable number and actually on the lighter side of what they need but if they could scrape up 300 Soviet tanks from remaining stocks then that is a major win.
I know armor is an important part of war, especially against Russia but no matter what Ukraine does they will still be outnumbered in a tank battle. The fast moving thunder runs seem like their best method of taking on Russia and they do it well. Russia doesn’t do well with chaos and that is what a quick strike in light armored vehicles does. This is where Russia not having any NCOs in their military. They break down when cut off from their commanders. All the MRAPS and IFVs being sent really might make more of a difference than actual tanks. It’s going to be interesting to see Ukraine’s plan of action in the coming weeks and months. One thing is for certain though. If it took this long to agree to send IFVs and tanks then they will never get aircraft.
I know armor is an important part of war, especially against Russia but no matter what Ukraine does they will still be outnumbered in a tank battle. The fast moving thunder runs seem like their best method of taking on Russia and they do it well. Russia doesn’t do well with chaos and that is what a quick strike in light armored vehicles does. This is where Russia not having any NCOs in their military. They break down when cut off from their commanders. All the MRAPS and IFVs being sent really might make more of a difference than actual tanks. It’s going to be interesting to see Ukraine’s plan of action in the coming weeks and months. One thing is for certain though. If it took this long to agree to send IFVs and tanks then they will never get aircraft.
Posted on 1/10/23 at 7:05 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
10 January 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
In the last four days, Russian and Wagner forces have made tactical advances into the small Donbas town of Soledar and are likely in control of most of the settlement. Soledar is 10km north of Bakhmut, the capture of which likely continues to be Russia's main immediate operational objective.
Russia's Soledar axis is highly likely an effort to envelop Bakhmut from the north, and to disrupt Ukrainian lines of communication. Part of the fighting has focused on entrances to the 200km-long disused salt mine tunnels which run underneath the district. Both sides are likely concerned that they could be used for infiltration behind their lines.
Despite the increased pressure on Bakhmut, Russia is unlikely to envelop the town imminently because Ukrainian forces maintain stable defensive lines in depth and control over supply routes.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
10 January 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
In the last four days, Russian and Wagner forces have made tactical advances into the small Donbas town of Soledar and are likely in control of most of the settlement. Soledar is 10km north of Bakhmut, the capture of which likely continues to be Russia's main immediate operational objective.
Russia's Soledar axis is highly likely an effort to envelop Bakhmut from the north, and to disrupt Ukrainian lines of communication. Part of the fighting has focused on entrances to the 200km-long disused salt mine tunnels which run underneath the district. Both sides are likely concerned that they could be used for infiltration behind their lines.
Despite the increased pressure on Bakhmut, Russia is unlikely to envelop the town imminently because Ukrainian forces maintain stable defensive lines in depth and control over supply routes.
Posted on 1/10/23 at 7:15 am to cypher
Bloomberg: Russia’s crude oil trades at half global prices, below cap
by The Kyiv Independent news desk
January 10, 2023 12:31 pm
Russia’s flagship crude oil, Urals, has sold at less than half of international prices and below the G7-imposed price cap amid Western sanctions, impacting its ability to wage its full-scale war against Ukraine, reported Bloomberg on Jan. 9.
On Jan, 6, the price of Russia’s Urals grade stood at $37.80 a barrel at the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk, said Bloomberg, citing Argus Media.
Meanwhile, the global benchmark Brent stood at $78.57 on the same day.
On Dec. 5, the EU and G7 nations agreed on a $60 price cap for Russian crude oil. The EU also imposed an embargo on maritime deliveries of Russian oil. After the ban's first week, total Russian exports dropped by 54%.
Bloomberg cites the loss of the European market, putting Russia at the “mercy of a tiny pool of large buyers,” such as China and India, as a potential reason for the prices.
by The Kyiv Independent news desk
January 10, 2023 12:31 pm
Russia’s flagship crude oil, Urals, has sold at less than half of international prices and below the G7-imposed price cap amid Western sanctions, impacting its ability to wage its full-scale war against Ukraine, reported Bloomberg on Jan. 9.
On Jan, 6, the price of Russia’s Urals grade stood at $37.80 a barrel at the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk, said Bloomberg, citing Argus Media.
Meanwhile, the global benchmark Brent stood at $78.57 on the same day.
On Dec. 5, the EU and G7 nations agreed on a $60 price cap for Russian crude oil. The EU also imposed an embargo on maritime deliveries of Russian oil. After the ban's first week, total Russian exports dropped by 54%.
Bloomberg cites the loss of the European market, putting Russia at the “mercy of a tiny pool of large buyers,” such as China and India, as a potential reason for the prices.
Posted on 1/10/23 at 9:59 am to cypher
quote:
On Jan, 6, the price of Russia’s Urals grade stood at $37.80 a barrel at the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk, said Bloomberg, citing Argus Media.
Dropped to $36.50 since then. I can all but guarantee that someone at that terminal is selling for US Dollars to small tankers in the middle of the night and likely going to Turkey in 20,000 to 40,000 shipments at under $25 per barrel. That happens all the time with Iranian crude. US Naval Intel has observed it constantly.
Breakeven was $50 per barrel a decade ago, after LIFTING costs. They have have gotten it down to the low $40's so still like a crackhead selling off furniture for dope. Or buying something on a credit card at say Lowe's then going to a pawn shop and pawning it off for the cash.
This post was edited on 1/10/23 at 10:01 am
Posted on 1/10/23 at 10:36 am to PPITT1212
quote:Usually you'd get a "Post Less" out of me, but consider me not responding that way my war contribution.
I've never posted on this website. I hope the Ukraine war doesn't lose the interest of the OT citizens. I count on you for updates. Thanks
Posted on 1/10/23 at 10:40 am to WeeWee
quote:
Poland has not committed to giving up all of its T72s. It still has 100-150 T72s that have not been committed to Ukraine yet. I don’t know exactly what the hold up is but for some those have not been committed to Ukraine.
I think that they want to get more of their K2 and Abrams orders actually delivered before they let go of the rest of those. One thing seems certain: Poland is not going to operate four kinds of MBTs for long. Its crazy enough to operate Abrams, K2 Panthers, and Leopard 2 tanks.
Posted on 1/10/23 at 10:42 am to GOP_Tiger
Here's what eastern Bakhmut looks like now. It doesn't even look real -- it's like its out of a movie.
Posted on 1/10/23 at 11:09 am to GOP_Tiger
From CNN:
"US and Ukrainian officials tell CNN that Russia’s artillery fire is down dramatically from its wartime high, in some places by as much as 75%."
"US officials saying the rate has dropped from 20,000 rounds per day to around 5,000 per day on average."
Edit:. This would also explain why some mobilized Russians trained on artillery for three months and then got dumped on the front as infantry.
Russia has some 5000 artillery pieces in theater, so they are firing an average of one shot per day.
"US and Ukrainian officials tell CNN that Russia’s artillery fire is down dramatically from its wartime high, in some places by as much as 75%."
"US officials saying the rate has dropped from 20,000 rounds per day to around 5,000 per day on average."
Edit:. This would also explain why some mobilized Russians trained on artillery for three months and then got dumped on the front as infantry.
Russia has some 5000 artillery pieces in theater, so they are firing an average of one shot per day.
This post was edited on 1/10/23 at 11:37 am
Posted on 1/10/23 at 11:38 am to GOP_Tiger
A year ago, Russia has 123 billionaires. Now, it only has 88. - Forbes
Posted on 1/10/23 at 12:10 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
A year ago, Russia has 123 billionaires. Now, it only has 88
Posted on 1/10/23 at 1:01 pm to GOP_Tiger
From last night.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1612588298509090817/photo/1
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1612588298509090817/photo/1
quote:
Ukrainian mil. journalist Yuriy Butusov - update from Soledar. The situation is difficult, Russians are throwing all their forces to reach the supply line behind the city. But, there are forces and equipment, and with the right use, the enemy can be defeated. Translation below.
Posted on 1/10/23 at 1:22 pm to GOP_Tiger
Assuming the reporting is accurate it would be interesting to know the main factors driving this:
-lack of ammunition stocks?
-lack of effective supply?
-tube wear reduction?
-conservation during quieter periods till spring?
In my view it's most likely all 4, though the 4th point is more a effect of the first 3.
Percentage wise I wonder what amount of that 5000 is being used in Bakhmut.
I found this from late December which puts it at about 5%
"Bakhmut, Avdiyivka, and some parts of Luhansk Oblast are currently the main hot spots of Russo-Ukrainian war, the spokesman of the Eastern Group of Ukraine’s Forces, Colonel Serhiy Cherevatyi, said on Ukrainian national television.
“28 military clashes and 225 shellings of various calibers of artillery and tanks took place during the day in the Bakhmut direction alone,” he said."
Euromaidanpress
-lack of ammunition stocks?
-lack of effective supply?
-tube wear reduction?
-conservation during quieter periods till spring?
In my view it's most likely all 4, though the 4th point is more a effect of the first 3.
Percentage wise I wonder what amount of that 5000 is being used in Bakhmut.
I found this from late December which puts it at about 5%
"Bakhmut, Avdiyivka, and some parts of Luhansk Oblast are currently the main hot spots of Russo-Ukrainian war, the spokesman of the Eastern Group of Ukraine’s Forces, Colonel Serhiy Cherevatyi, said on Ukrainian national television.
“28 military clashes and 225 shellings of various calibers of artillery and tanks took place during the day in the Bakhmut direction alone,” he said."
Euromaidanpress
Posted on 1/10/23 at 2:58 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I think that they want to get more of their K2 and Abrams orders actually delivered before they let go of the rest of those.
That kinda supports my point about Ukraine not getting Leopards. Poland would have to have replacements or risk weakening itself. The same is true about providing Leopards to Ukraine. Any NATO member will have to have replacements and be trained on those replacements or risk weakening NATO in order to give Leopards to Ukraine. So it makes more sense to supply Ukraine with the remaining 500 or so T72s in NATO arsenals and then start training and supplying them with M1s.
Posted on 1/10/23 at 3:10 pm to amnesia46
If the reports are true it looks like Ivan has decided to go all and launch a major offensive against Soledar. However, if Russian casualties are even close to being accurate then I don’t know how the Russians can keep up the pressure to sustain their advance.
This post was edited on 1/10/23 at 4:11 pm
Posted on 1/10/23 at 5:33 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
Somewhere OML is shaking in a corner working down his checklist for his bugout.
Burrowing fast than a mole
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