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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/7/23 at 8:30 pm to StormyMcMan
Posted on 1/7/23 at 8:30 pm to StormyMcMan
ISW Update
quote:
Recent Russian gains in Soledar do not portend an imminent encirclement of Bakhmut, contrary to claims made by Russian sources. Even at the most generous interpretation of Russian milblogger narratives, which claim that Russian forces are fighting on the outskirts of Razdolivka (about 6km northwest of Soledar), Russian forces are still far from being within striking distance of an operational encirclement of Bakhmut.[1] In order to effectively cut Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) into Bakhmut, Russian forces would have to establish control of the T0513 Siversk-Bakhmut highway (currently 7km west of the furthest point of confirmed Russian advances in the Soledar area) and reach the E40 Slovyansk-Bakhmut highway (13km from the furthest point of confirmed Russian advance in the Soledar area) at least.
quote:
Russia continues to weaponize religion to perpetuate long-standing information operations and discredit Ukraine. Russian milbloggers responded to footage posted on January 7 of uniformed Ukrainian servicemen attending Orthodox Christmas services at the Kyiv-Perchesk Lavra and decried it as a reprisal and open war on the Ukrainian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (UOC MP).[3] Several milbloggers referred to the footage as evidence that the Lavra has been “captured” by “heretics and schismatics.”
quote:
The Ukrainian government has not disrupted the ability of observers to celebrate Orthodox Christmas in Ukraine. Russian milbloggers falsely presented the legal transfer of the Kyiv-Perchesk Lavra from the UOC MP, which the Ukrainian government maintains has explicit links to the Kremlin and has provided material and spiritual support to the Russian war in Ukraine, to the OCU as an attack on the ability of observers of Orthodox tradition to celebrate Christmas. Orthodox services continued through Ukraine, including in the Kyiv-Perchesk Lavra, throughout the course of the day on January 7
quote:
Russian forces reportedly continue to deplete their missile arsenal but will likely continue to be able to threaten Ukrainian critical infrastructure and civilians at scale in the near term. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov published an infographic on January 6 detailing that Russian forces have expended roughly 81 percent of their strategic missile stocks and 19 percent of their tactical missile stocks.[9] Reznikov reported that Russian forces reportedly have remaining of their pre-war and post-invasion production stocks:
92 Iskander 9M723 missiles (11 percent),
52 Iskander 9M728/9M729 missiles (44 percent),
118 Kh-101 and Kh-555/55SM missiles (16 percent),
162 Kh-22/32 missiles (44 percent),
53 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles (84 percent), and
59 sea-based Kalibr missiles (9 percent).[10]
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) stated that it would never run out of sea-based Kalibr missiles while conducting a massive series of missile strikes on December 29, 2022.
Reznikov reported that Russia has managed to produce since the February 2022 invasion:
290 Kh-101 and Kh-555/55SM missiles (65 percent of the pre-war stock),
150 Kalibr missiles (30 percent of the pre-war stock),
36 Iskander 9M723 missiles (5 percent of the pre-war stock),
20 Iskander 9M728/9M729 missiles (20 percent of the pre-war stock),
and 20 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles (47 percent of the pre-war stock).[13]
The Russian production of strategic missiles since the start of the invasion of Ukraine in comparison to the Russian military's pre-war stock highlights that Russia has not mobilized its military industry to support Russian military operations in Ukraine. A country would normally increase the production of missile, rocket, and other weapons systems and munitions before embarking on a major war and would normally put its military industry on a war footing once the war began. Russia has done neither.
quote:
Russian forces have also reportedly depleted their arsenal of Iranian-made drones following an increased pace of drone attacks in Ukraine in the past month. Russian forces have reportedly expended 88 percent of their stock of the Shahed-131 and –136 drones that they have so far received from Iran, with only 90 Iranian-made drones remaining according to Reznikov.
quote:
Key Takeaways
Recent Russian gains in Soledar do not portend an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut.
Russia continues to weaponize religion to perpetuate long-standing information operations and discredit Ukraine.
Russian forces reportedly continue to deplete their missile arsenal and stock of Iranian-made drones but will likely continue to threaten Ukrainian infrastructure at scale in the near term.
Russian and Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Svatove and Kreminna.
Russian forces made marginal confirmed advances in Soledar amid continuing Russian offensive operations around Bakhmut and along the western outskirts of Donetsk City.
Russian forces continue efforts to establish further control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
Ukrainian and European officials continue to warn that Russia is preparing for an imminent second wave of mobilization.
Russian occupation authorities continue to transport Ukrainian children to Russian territory under the guise of medical rehabilitation schemes.
0
Posted on 1/7/23 at 8:30 pm to StormyMcMan
Double post
This post was edited on 1/7/23 at 8:38 pm
Posted on 1/7/23 at 9:07 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Can anyone make a gif out of Putin celebrating Christmas alone?
In the preview it didn't play as a GIF, I don't know why, but here is the link. Let me know if it doesn't work.
ETA a smaller version that will work, I still don't know why the other one won't work.
This post was edited on 1/7/23 at 9:12 pm
Posted on 1/7/23 at 9:37 pm to Obtuse1
That’s great. Thanks
Posted on 1/7/23 at 10:46 pm to WeeWee
further down the Twitter lonely Putin thread is a pic of him crying.
This post was edited on 1/7/23 at 11:08 pm
Posted on 1/8/23 at 1:23 am to CitizenK
Posted on 1/8/23 at 6:54 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 8 January 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
In recent weeks, Russia has bolstered defensive fortifications in central Zaporizhzhia Oblast, southern Ukraine, especially between the towns of Vasilyvka and Orikhiv. Russia maintains a large force in this sector.
The way Russia has worked on improving defences suggests commanders are highly likely pre-occupied with the potential for major Ukrainian offensive action in two sectors: either in northern Luhansk Oblast, or in Zaporizhzhia.
A major Ukrainian breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia would seriously challenge the viability of Russia's 'land bridge' linking Russia's Rostov region and Crimea; Ukrainian success in Luhansk would further undermine Russia's professed war aim of 'liberating' the Donbas. Deciding which of these threats to prioritise countering is likely one of the central dilemmas for Russian operational planners.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 8 January 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
In recent weeks, Russia has bolstered defensive fortifications in central Zaporizhzhia Oblast, southern Ukraine, especially between the towns of Vasilyvka and Orikhiv. Russia maintains a large force in this sector.
The way Russia has worked on improving defences suggests commanders are highly likely pre-occupied with the potential for major Ukrainian offensive action in two sectors: either in northern Luhansk Oblast, or in Zaporizhzhia.
A major Ukrainian breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia would seriously challenge the viability of Russia's 'land bridge' linking Russia's Rostov region and Crimea; Ukrainian success in Luhansk would further undermine Russia's professed war aim of 'liberating' the Donbas. Deciding which of these threats to prioritise countering is likely one of the central dilemmas for Russian operational planners.
Posted on 1/8/23 at 6:02 pm to cypher
ISW Update
quote:
ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, January 8. This report discusses the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) attempts to claim that Russian forces responded to the December 31 Ukrainian strike on Russian positions in Makiivka; the Russian MoD’s use of a grievance-and-retaliation framework and the resulting creation of negative feedback loops in the pro-war Russian information space; Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s potential attempts to financially exploit Ukrainian natural resources around Bakhmut; and the United Kingdom Ministry of Defense’s (UK MoD) assessment that Russian forces may be preparing for Ukrainian counteroffensive actions along the Zaporizhia and Luhansk oblast frontlines.
quote:
The Russian MoD’s attempts to claim Russian forces responded to the December 31 Ukrainian strike against Russian positions in Makiivka are generating further discontent in the Russian information space. The Russian MoD announced on January 8 that Russian forces conducted a “retaliation operation” against Ukrainian forces for the December 31 strike on Makiivka that killed up to 400 mobilized soldiers due to Russian command failures and poor personnel dispersal practices
quote:
The Russian MoD application of a grievance-and-retaliation framework to many of its operations has created a negative feedback loop with prominent members of the pro-war Russian information space. At the beginning of the massive campaign of strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure in October 2022, the Russian MoD employed a similar framing of “retaliation” against claimed Ukrainian strikes on the Kerch Strait Bridge and other Russian infrastructure.[5] The Russian MoD partially used this framing to mollify escalated demands from the pro-war community to “avenge” Ukrainian actions but provoked an array of responses from milbloggers outlining other instances that the Russian MoD should equally “retaliate” for.
quote:
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may be attempting to financially exploit Ukrainian natural resources around Bakhmut and is using the war in Ukraine to connect his military forces with Russian regional officials. An unnamed White House official stated on January 5 that the United States believes Prigozhin seeks to extract salt and gypsum from mines in the Bakhmut area for monetary gain.[7] Prigozhin attempted to justify the importance of mines around Bakhmut and Soledar (which Russian forces have struggled to capture from Ukrainian defenders) on January 7, stating that these mines have “unique and historic defenses” that act as a “network of underground cities.”
Prigozhin is also continuing to publicly align himself with select Russian governors in an effort to increase his influence and advance his personal interests in Russia, as opposed to strictly winning the war. Kursk Oblast Governor Roman Starovoit visited the Wagner training facility for the Kursk Oblast People’s Militia on January 8 and reportedly trained alongside Prigozhin and “real men” who are patriots during his visit.[12] Russian outlets claimed that Starovoit even received an offer to sign a contract with Wagner, which he declined due to his public duties.
quote:
The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) confirmed ISW’s previous assessments that Russian forces are preparing for the possibility of future Ukrainian counteroffensives in Zaporizhia or Luhansk oblasts. The UK MoD reported on January 8 that in recent weeks, Russian forces have expanded defensive fortifications in Zaporizhia Oblast along the Vasylivka-Orikhkiv line and are maintaining a large force grouping in this sector in a way that suggests that Russian commanders are concerned by the possibility of a major Ukrainian counteroffensive push in southern Ukraine.[15] The UK MoD suggested that Russian forces are facing two equally exigent counteroffensive scenarios: A Ukrainian breakthrough on the Zaporizhia line that could seriously challenge the viability of the Russian land bridge linking Rostov Oblast with occupied Crimea, or a Ukrainian breakthrough in Luhansk Oblast that could further unhinge the Russian offensive objective of occupying the entirety of Donbas
quote:
Key inflections in ongoing military operations on January 8:
Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov stated on January 8 that Russia plans to begin domestic production of Iranian-made drones.[18]
Russian forces continued counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line on January 8.[19]
Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai stated on January 8 that Russian forces transferred several battalions from the Bakhmut area to the Kreminna area.[20]
Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Serhiy Cherevaty stated on January 8 that Russian forces do not control Soledar, and other official Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces captured Russian positions near Bakhmut.[21] Prominent Russian milbloggers expressed divergent opinions of the potential for the Russian encirclement of Bakhmut.
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut and along the western outskirts of Donetsk City.[22]
Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed on January 7 that 300 Chechen Akhmat-1 OMON personnel deployed to Ukraine.[23]
Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces used incendiary munitions to strike civilian infrastructure in Kherson City overnight on January 7–8.[24]
Russian forces are continuing to intensify filtration measures to identify partisans in occupied territories. Russian occupation authorities claimed that likely Ukrainian partisans committed sabotage by mining a gas pipeline in Luhansk Oblast on January 8.[25]
Russian occupation authorities intensified passportization efforts in occupied territories on January 8.[26]
Posted on 1/8/23 at 7:24 pm to tigeraddict
That was the only way Ukraine was going to win
Plus Russia doesn’t have an NCO corps likes we do, therefore many leaders are always in the front lines as well as planning and executing which of course leaves inadequate subpar training for your lower enlisted troops
Plus Russia doesn’t have an NCO corps likes we do, therefore many leaders are always in the front lines as well as planning and executing which of course leaves inadequate subpar training for your lower enlisted troops
Posted on 1/9/23 at 6:16 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 9 January 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Since at least June 2022, Russian Aerospace Forces have almost certainly used Su-57 FELON to conduct missions against Ukraine. FELON is Russia's most advanced fifth-generation supersonic combat jet, employing stealth technologies and highly advanced avionics. These missions have likely been limited to flying over Russian territory, launching long range air-to-surface or air-to-air missiles into Ukraine.
Recent commercially available imagery shows five FELON parked at Akhtubinsk Air Base, which hosts the 929th Flight Test Centre. As this is the only known FELON base, these aircraft have likely been involved in operations against Ukraine.
Russia is highly likely prioritising avoiding the reputational damage, reduced export prospects, and the compromise of sensitive technology which would come from any loss of FELON over Ukraine. This is symptomatic of Russia's continued risk-averse approach to employing its air force in the war.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 9 January 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Since at least June 2022, Russian Aerospace Forces have almost certainly used Su-57 FELON to conduct missions against Ukraine. FELON is Russia's most advanced fifth-generation supersonic combat jet, employing stealth technologies and highly advanced avionics. These missions have likely been limited to flying over Russian territory, launching long range air-to-surface or air-to-air missiles into Ukraine.
Recent commercially available imagery shows five FELON parked at Akhtubinsk Air Base, which hosts the 929th Flight Test Centre. As this is the only known FELON base, these aircraft have likely been involved in operations against Ukraine.
Russia is highly likely prioritising avoiding the reputational damage, reduced export prospects, and the compromise of sensitive technology which would come from any loss of FELON over Ukraine. This is symptomatic of Russia's continued risk-averse approach to employing its air force in the war.
Posted on 1/9/23 at 6:27 am to cypher
Russian invaders attempt to storm Soledar but suffer losses and retreat
VALENTYNA ROMANENKO — Monday, 9 January 2023, 12:25
Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has noted that Russian propaganda claims about the alleged capture of Soledar are untrue.
Source: Oleksandr Sirskyi, quoted by Military Media Center on 9 January
Quote: "The enemy has once again made a desperate attempt to storm the city of Soledar from different directions and has cast the most professional detachments of the Wagner Group into battle.
At the same time, thanks to the courage of our defenders and the skillful and competent use of their weapons, the enemy has suffered significant losses and has once again retreated, despite the enemy’s propaganda claims about the alleged capture of Soledar."
Ukrainska Pravda
VALENTYNA ROMANENKO — Monday, 9 January 2023, 12:25
Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has noted that Russian propaganda claims about the alleged capture of Soledar are untrue.
Source: Oleksandr Sirskyi, quoted by Military Media Center on 9 January
Quote: "The enemy has once again made a desperate attempt to storm the city of Soledar from different directions and has cast the most professional detachments of the Wagner Group into battle.
At the same time, thanks to the courage of our defenders and the skillful and competent use of their weapons, the enemy has suffered significant losses and has once again retreated, despite the enemy’s propaganda claims about the alleged capture of Soledar."
Ukrainska Pravda
Posted on 1/9/23 at 8:24 am to cypher
Ukraine definitely seems to have stabilized the situation in Soledar, but there's now news of Russian advances in Pidhorodne (which, like Soledar, is north of Bakhmut).
Russia is making an extremely determined push to cut off Bakhmut from the north. If they can do that, then it will be much harder for Ukraine to hold the city.
Russia is making an extremely determined push to cut off Bakhmut from the north. If they can do that, then it will be much harder for Ukraine to hold the city.
Posted on 1/9/23 at 8:37 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Russia is making an extremely determined push to cut off Bakhmut from the north. If they can do that, then it will be much harder for Ukraine to hold the city.
but it appears at the same time, farther north, Ukraine is trying to push towards Kreminna. that is just 25 miles north of soledar. It appears Ukraine is trying to hold but fall back to bleed the assulting forces near Bakhmut while trying to push in the direction of Kreminna.
Latest ISW reports show there has been combat around the salt mine which is west of the center of the town. so it sounds like both forces have a presence in the town
Posted on 1/9/23 at 8:50 am to GOP_Tiger
Here's another piece of evidence that NATO-manufactured main battle tanks will be announced at the Ramstein conference on January 20th.
LINK
I increasingly think that Ramstein on the 20th is going to see announcements of Abrams, Challenger 2, LeClerc, and Leopard 2 tanks going to Ukraine.
Yes, as we've discussed, Ukraine would be much better off just getting one kind of NATO MBT, but that's not how this works for a couple of reasons.
One is political. NATO operates by consensus, and NATO members concerned about the increased escalation risk of direct conflict with Russia want to spread that risk out. If only one NATO member gave MBTs to Ukriane (for this discussion, we are ignoring all the Soviet-made MBTs being donated), then that nation might be at special risk of Russian wrath, even if that were only a massive cyberattack.
The other reason is that NATO militaries want to see how their equipment performs in real battle, which is what we have seen with SPGs and other kinds of equipment. What are the strengths and weaknesses of my country's tank, as compared to others? Learning these kinds of things is critical to designing the next generation of weapons systems, as well as upgrades to existing gear -- Ukraine is a laboratory experiment.
Edit: that post was from the German outlet Spiegel. Here's another from Sky News: LINK
quote:
In Great Britain there are plans to support Ukraine with modern western tanks. According to SPIEGEL information, the government in London is considering handing over a dozen Challenger 2 battle tanks to the Ukrainian army. Last week, the USA, France and Germany announced that they wanted to supply Ukraine with tanks - but the Bradley, AMX-10 RC and Marder models in question are not main battle tanks.
In the group of Western Ukraine supporters, London has already announced the possible delivery without obligation. Officially, however, the decision will probably only be presented at another meeting of the so-called Ramstein Group on January 20 at the US military base of the same name in Rhineland-Palatinate.
LINK
I increasingly think that Ramstein on the 20th is going to see announcements of Abrams, Challenger 2, LeClerc, and Leopard 2 tanks going to Ukraine.
Yes, as we've discussed, Ukraine would be much better off just getting one kind of NATO MBT, but that's not how this works for a couple of reasons.
One is political. NATO operates by consensus, and NATO members concerned about the increased escalation risk of direct conflict with Russia want to spread that risk out. If only one NATO member gave MBTs to Ukriane (for this discussion, we are ignoring all the Soviet-made MBTs being donated), then that nation might be at special risk of Russian wrath, even if that were only a massive cyberattack.
The other reason is that NATO militaries want to see how their equipment performs in real battle, which is what we have seen with SPGs and other kinds of equipment. What are the strengths and weaknesses of my country's tank, as compared to others? Learning these kinds of things is critical to designing the next generation of weapons systems, as well as upgrades to existing gear -- Ukraine is a laboratory experiment.
Edit: that post was from the German outlet Spiegel. Here's another from Sky News: LINK
quote:
A US-led grouping of some 50 nations - including the UK - that is delivering military support to Ukraine is due to hold its next meeting on 20 January. Any announcements about new assistance, such as tanks, could be made to coincide with the Contact Group gathering.
One source suggested Britain might offer around 10 Challenger 2 tanks, enough to equip a squadron.
This post was edited on 1/9/23 at 8:58 am
Posted on 1/9/23 at 8:53 am to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 1/9/23 at 8:54 am to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 1/9/23 at 9:17 am to tigeraddict
quote:
it appears at the same time, farther north, Ukraine is trying to push towards Kreminna. that is just 25 miles north of soledar. It appears Ukraine is trying to hold but fall back to bleed the assulting forces near Bakhmut while trying to push in the direction of Kreminna.
But Russia has sent significant reinforcement to Kreminna in the last few weeks. The ground there should be frozen today, and it should stay that way for about a week, so this week could be very interesting on that front.
Posted on 1/9/23 at 1:34 pm to AU86
These are responses to AU86's linked video. I can't watch the video at work and cannot verify their validity.
quote:
The salt mines in and around Soledar contain deep and extensive tunnel networks that cannot be targeted with artillery and serve as safe ammunition storage and a distribution hub for the region, currently for Ukraine. Those salt mines used to be quite beautiful actually, there are plenty of pictures of them to be found on the internet. Should Russia capture Soledar and those salt mines, they would gain the ability to use them as a local hub for ammunition and personnel that cannot be targeted by their biggest nemesis = HIMARS.
quote:
The scale of the Soledar Salt Mines is vast. The mines have 125 miles of tunnel, are at a depth of 288m, and many of the chambers are 30 meters in height. The largest resembles a hangar of about 100 meters long and 40 meters width and 40 m height, and has accommodated soccer matches and the inflation of a hot air ballon.
quote:
Prigozhin on Bakhmut- “Bakhmut is the central point of the Eastern Front and a serious logistics center. And our task there is to die as little as possible, and to destroy the enemy as much as possible. Bakhmut's feature is in its unique historical and geographical defense capabilities, which include, first, the division of the city into several parts by water barriers. Secondly, the neighborhood of Bakhmut is a complex of settlements that create a unified defense system. Thirdly, this is a unique landscape, ravines and heights, which are natural tunnels. And the icing on the cake is the system of Soledar and Bakhmut mines, actually a network of underground cities. In which there is not only a cluster of people at a depth of 80-100 meters, but also tanks and infantry fighting vehicles move. And stockpiles of weapons have been stored since the First World War."
Posted on 1/9/23 at 1:56 pm to LeClerc
quote:
The scale of the Soledar Salt Mines is vast. The mines have 125 miles of tunnel, are at a depth of 288m, and many of the chambers are 30 meters in height. The largest resembles a hangar of about 100 meters long and 40 meters width and 40 m height, and has accommodated soccer matches and the inflation of a hot air ballon.
So much like the salt mines at Avery Island and what used to be at Jefferson Island in Louisiana or like the salt mine under Detroit. That being said, the large earthmoving equipment in them is brought down piece by piece then reassembled before going to work. When a piece of equipment is no longer usable, it's just parked at the end of a horizontal shaft in perpetuity. The air is dry so nothing corrodes.
Posted on 1/9/23 at 6:37 pm to Obtuse1
quote:LINK
Natural gas in Europe dropped below €100 per megawatt-hour for the first time since June as unusually warm weather and ample supplies ease fears of shortages this winter.
First General Winter screws Russia by having spring come early to Ukraine last year, and an warm winter is destroying Russia's hopes of using an energy crisis to force the west to abandon Ukraine. I think it is safe to say that without being able to rely on its biggest ally Russia is f**ked.
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