re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 27 December 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

Over the last 48 hours, fighting has remained focused around the Bakhmut sector of Donetsk Oblast, and near Svatove in Luhansk. Russia continues to initiate frequent small-scale assaults in these areas, although little territory has changed hands.

To the north, elements of Russia's 1st Guards Tank Army were probably amongst the Russian forces recently deployed to Belarus. This formation was likely conducting training before its deployment and is unlikely to have the support units needed to make it combat-ready.

ISW Update Dec 26th

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Russian President Vladimir Putin did not offer to negotiate with Ukraine on December 25 contrary to some reporting. Putin, in a TV interview, stated that he does not think that the war is approaching a “dangerous line" and noted that Russia has no choice but to continue to defend its citizens, before stating that Russia “is ready to negotiate with all parties” involved in the conflict.

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Putin’s December 25 statement is a part of a deliberate information campaign aimed at misleading the West to push Ukraine into making preliminary concessions. The Kremlin did not publish the full transcript of Putin’s interview on its official website in contrast with its normal pattern, possibly to facilitate the misrepresentation of Putin’s full statement originally broadcasted in Russian and highlight his vague statement on negotiations.[3] The Kremlin’s use of the interview clip on the Christmas holiday may also be a response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent speech at the US Congress amidst the holiday season

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Putin is likely concerned over the lack of support for his war in Ukraine among elites and may be setting information conditions for the nationalization of their property. Putin pointed out that there are people in Russia who act solely in their self-interest when responding to a relatively positive interview question on his sentiments toward Russians’ commitment to the war.[5] Putin added that 99.9% of Russians would sacrifice everything for the “motherland.” Putin’s instant criticism of some members of society suggests that he is focused on those who do not fully support the war rather than on those who do

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Ukrainian intelligence reported that a Wagner Group-linked Russian officer was appointed commander of the Russian Western Military District (WMD). The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on December 26 that former Chief of Staff of the Eastern Military District Lieutenant General Evgeny Valerivich Nikiforov was appointed as the new commander of the WMD and that Nikiforov is commanding the Russian western grouping of forces in Ukraine out of a command post in Boguchar, Voronezh Oblast.[8] The report states that Nikiforov replaced Colonel General Sergey Kuzovlev as WMD commander (November – December 2022) because Nikiforov is a member of the internal Russian silovik alliance formed by Commander of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine Army General Sergey Surovikin and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin.....Nikiforov has previous experience commanding Wagner Group elements in Donbas from 2014 to 2015. A Bellingcat investigation found that Wagner founder Dmitry Utkin reported to Nikiforov – among other Russian military intelligence officials – when Nikiforov was the Chief of Staff of the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army in 2015

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Ukrainian strikes on legitimate military targets far in the Russian rear continue to be points of neuralgia for the Russian milblogger community. Russian sources began reporting explosions near the Engels Airbase in Saratov Oblast on the night of December 25 and the morning of December 26.[12] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) stated that Russian air defense shot down a Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that was approaching the Engels airfield at low altitude and that the wreckage of the UAV killed three Russian servicemen.[13] Several prominent Russian milbloggers latched onto the Russian MoD report on the incident as an opportunity to criticize domestic Russian air defense capabilities and question Russian authorities’ handling of and response to reported Ukrainian strikes deep in the Russian rear. One Wagner Group-affiliated milblogger questioned why Russian air defense only “miraculously” prevents strikes “exactly above the airfield/military unit” and noted that the Engels airfield is 500km into Russian territory.[14] Former militant commander and prominent Russian milblogger Igor Girkin sarcastically congratulated Russian air defense for activating before striking the airbase and questioned why Russia is allowing Ukrainian drones so deep into its territory

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Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not offer to negotiate with Ukraine on December 25 contrary to some reporting.

Putin is likely concerned over the lack of support for his war in Ukraine among elites and may be setting information conditions for the nationalization of their property.

Ukrainian intelligence reported that a Wagner Group-linked Russian officer was appointed commander of the Russian Western Military District (WMD).

Ukrainian strikes on legitimate military targets far in the Russian rear continue to be points of neuralgia for the Russian milblogger community.

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian troops are fighting near Kreminna.

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces made limited gains northeast of Bakhmut.

Russian forces continued ground attacks on the western outskirts of Donetsk City.

Ukrainian military officials indicated that Russian forces may be concentrating some unspecified forces for offensive or demonstration operations in Zaporizhia Oblast and that Russian forces are attempting to conduct small-scale reconnaissance-in-force operations to reach right-bank Kherson Oblast.

Russian officials and nationalists began to criticize the Kremlin’s lenient migration and passportization policies for Central Asian migrants.

Russia is continuing efforts to consolidate control of occupied territories in Ukraine through the manipulation of citizenship procedures.

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If that’s the case, then what’s going on in Belarus isn’t preparation of opening a new front, but rather training replacements for the 1st Guards Tank Army for eventual deployment to the current front on the south. My guess is the Russians expect a Ukrainian offensive soon and these forces training in Belarus will be expected to either take part in the defense, or perhaps they will be held back in hopes of launching a counteroffensive.

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If Russians are training Belorussian troops; are there not Russian conscripts that should be trained first?

In other words, are the Russians short of manpower now?

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Russians are training Belorussian troops; are there not Russian conscripts that should be trained first?

In other words, are the Russians short of manpower now?

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What I've been reading is basically that Russia pulled as much man power as they could for this invasion including the personnel who would normally train conscripts. So they are having to turn to Belarus for help in the training department. How much of that is true who knows

There's been a lot of 'emotional' thinking in the overall Russian strategy, which feels different from the Russian intervention in Syria. It does fly in the face of the notion that Putin is coldly logical, because the long-term security situation of the Russians is untenable from any angle.

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What I've been reading is basically that Russia pulled as much man power as they could for this invasion including the personnel who would normally train conscripts.

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Yeah, I remember discussion in the first month or two of the war that Russia was throwing trainers into the conflict out of desperation. And speculation that it would bite them in the arse in the long run.

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Don't these guys have security details?

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Man, I don't know. But if I was a Russian oligarch, I'd never go above the first floor of any building.

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2) The Russian MoD fears a Ukrainian attack in the South, so it's denying Wagner the shells that it formerly got, because Surovikin is prioritizing the defense of Melitopol.

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The south is going to be a diversion. Ukraine is either going to push an offensive on Kremmina or an offensive towards Mariupol since the Russians are ignoring it and not building up their defenses there.

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Have you ever been on a 155 range?

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No but I was on the receiving end of a 152 mm bombardment back in August. Even though the Russians accuracy was terrible the shells hit close enough to cause an involuntary emptying of my bladder.