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Posted on 12/26/22 at 3:58 pm to Burhead
quote:
Ukraine said they would be willing to discuss peace talks through the UN starting in February.
Thats fine, no cease fire, continue maneuvering and killing Russians while negotiating.
Putin knows exactly what this latest package of aid means for his "military".
This post was edited on 12/26/22 at 4:02 pm
Posted on 12/26/22 at 5:43 pm to Lakeboy7
There are people on twitter saying that multiple bombers were damaged at Engels.
Posted on 12/26/22 at 5:57 pm to Athanatos
Russian state TV talked about the attack and realized a large drone flew 100s of miles over Russian undetected.
Keep in mind though they did not mention it this base was just hit 3 weeks ago and they apparently did or could do nothing to prevent this kind of attack.
Twitter
Keep in mind though they did not mention it this base was just hit 3 weeks ago and they apparently did or could do nothing to prevent this kind of attack.
This post was edited on 12/26/22 at 5:59 pm
Posted on 12/26/22 at 6:15 pm to Athanatos
quote:
There are people on twitter saying that multiple bombers were damaged at Engels.
I am also hearing there was a large missile attack planned on Ukraine today but the flight control system at Engels was taken out so it could not proceed.
I have a healthy bit of skepticism about this because the timing is just too perfect, though it could have happened.
What I like to do is try to track gossip like this back to its initial appearance on the internet and often find it is a completely unreliable source or root out more issues. The problem for me with this war is I don't read Russian or Ukranian so I am unlikely to be able to find the true source only the English language source. This is how I found out OML's rant about the hacked texts from Lizz Truss purportedly about the Nord Stream pipeline explosion originating from Kim Dotcom and the hack occurred weeks before the explosion.
Posted on 12/26/22 at 6:20 pm to Obtuse1
The passage of time usually sorts the rumors out. It seems unlikely that multiple planes AND the tower were hit, but time will tell.
Posted on 12/26/22 at 6:36 pm to Athanatos
quote:
The passage of time usually sorts the rumors out. It seems unlikely that multiple planes AND the tower were hit, but time will tell.
Very true. Hopefully the guys they buy and review the high quality/near real-time sat imagery will convey some more tangible intel.
One thing is true: the attack sat proud enough of the noise that state TV is talking about it. This alone tells us the Russians think it is significant enough to bemoan on air.
Posted on 12/26/22 at 6:52 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
Ukraine said they would be willing to discuss peace talks through the UN starting in February.
This means Ukraine thinks it will be in a position of strength by then. Another possible indication of a big winter offensive in the offing.
Posted on 12/26/22 at 7:00 pm to Athanatos
Wagner's official "Grey Zone" channel:
This would confirm that Wagner is facing a severe shell shortage.
So, this is Wagner's way of explaining its current failure in Bakhmut.
Let's explore some theories:
1) Maybe Shoigu/Gerasimov fear Prigozhin's growing political power, and they don't want Wagner to win, so they are withholding shells. This seems to be what Wagner is hinting at.
2) The Russian MoD fears a Ukrainian attack in the South, so it's denying Wagner the shells that it formerly got, because Surovikin is prioritizing the defense of Melitopol.
3) Russia is running out of shells, and they are about to get whipped on multiple fronts.
I kinda like option #3 -- what about you?
This would confirm that Wagner is facing a severe shell shortage.
So, this is Wagner's way of explaining its current failure in Bakhmut.
Let's explore some theories:
1) Maybe Shoigu/Gerasimov fear Prigozhin's growing political power, and they don't want Wagner to win, so they are withholding shells. This seems to be what Wagner is hinting at.
2) The Russian MoD fears a Ukrainian attack in the South, so it's denying Wagner the shells that it formerly got, because Surovikin is prioritizing the defense of Melitopol.
3) Russia is running out of shells, and they are about to get whipped on multiple fronts.
I kinda like option #3 -- what about you?
Posted on 12/26/22 at 7:21 pm to GOP_Tiger
Both sides are burning through ammo at an extreme rate. Difference is, one side is nowhere close to running out of money
Posted on 12/26/22 at 8:43 pm to GOP_Tiger
I think that this sudden willingness to have peace talks is because Russia is running out of Artillery ammo and knows it's about to get its arse kicked.
There is a whole lot of smoke from different sources, including Russian sources, around Russia having a major ammo shortage.
Russia is looking for an out.
There is a whole lot of smoke from different sources, including Russian sources, around Russia having a major ammo shortage.
Russia is looking for an out.
Posted on 12/26/22 at 8:46 pm to Chromdome35
There is a possibility this is a Russian laid trap. If Russia were to be faking an artillery ammo shortage and coax Ukraine into the attack...I don't think this is what is happening, but it is a possibility.
ETA: If they are faking it, then this is the first real sign of military intelligence from the Russians.
ETA: If they are faking it, then this is the first real sign of military intelligence from the Russians.
This post was edited on 12/26/22 at 8:47 pm
Posted on 12/26/22 at 8:51 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
There is a possibility this is a Russian laid trap. If Russia were to be faking an artillery ammo shortage and coax Ukraine into the attack...I don't think this is what is happening, but it is a possibility.
ETA: If they are faking it, then this is the first real sign of military intelligence from the Russians.
I think the US and other nations are embedded deep enough into the Russian military to know if they're bullshitting or not.
Posted on 12/26/22 at 8:56 pm to Chromdome35
What has been batted about is the high number of defective artillery rounds made in 2022.
Posted on 12/26/22 at 8:57 pm to PrecedentedTimes
Well, the UK just awarded a $304 million contract contract to produce ammo for Ukraine.
The US just purchased tens of thousands of rounds of 152mm ammo as part of last week's deal.
The US is raising 155mm production by 40% this spring and by 600% in the next three years.
_____________________________________
But Ukraine doesn't need anywhere near the volume of shells that Russia does. Russia's volume of barrel artillery has been its one big advantage in the war.
But Ukraine doesn't need anywhere near Russia's volume, because its Western guns like the Caesar significantly outrange Russia's guns, and they are far more accurate. And, needless to say, Russia has absolutely nothing like Excalibur rounds (or the French and German equivalents).
But HIMARS makes the artillery disparity so much starker. And with the upcoming arrival of GLSDB rockets that will travel an additional 17 miles beyond the M30 rockets in use right now, HIMARS is going to get even more deadly.
The other force multiplier for Ukrainian artillery is, according to Russian blogger Murz (and other reports that I've seen), Ukraine has significantly more drones in the air. Artillery is useless if you don't know where the enemy is.
The US just purchased tens of thousands of rounds of 152mm ammo as part of last week's deal.
The US is raising 155mm production by 40% this spring and by 600% in the next three years.
_____________________________________
But Ukraine doesn't need anywhere near the volume of shells that Russia does. Russia's volume of barrel artillery has been its one big advantage in the war.
But Ukraine doesn't need anywhere near Russia's volume, because its Western guns like the Caesar significantly outrange Russia's guns, and they are far more accurate. And, needless to say, Russia has absolutely nothing like Excalibur rounds (or the French and German equivalents).
But HIMARS makes the artillery disparity so much starker. And with the upcoming arrival of GLSDB rockets that will travel an additional 17 miles beyond the M30 rockets in use right now, HIMARS is going to get even more deadly.
The other force multiplier for Ukrainian artillery is, according to Russian blogger Murz (and other reports that I've seen), Ukraine has significantly more drones in the air. Artillery is useless if you don't know where the enemy is.
Posted on 12/26/22 at 9:00 pm to TigersSEC2010
quote:
I think the US and other nations are embedded deep enough into the Russian military to know if they're bullshitting or not.
Even if there were no Western operatives in the Russian chain of command or close enough to it to know these things I would bet our SIGINT has a very good grasp on any shortages. I do not think Russia has the sophistication or capability to produce misdirection in this area where as the USSR certainly did at one time.
Posted on 12/26/22 at 9:00 pm to GOP_Tiger
Artillery needs new tubes to go with the new ammo.
Posted on 12/26/22 at 9:07 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The US is raising 155mm production by 40% this spring and by 600% in the next three years.
I’m the late 90s we were still firing 155mm shells made during WWII. It blows my mind we’re finally running low.
Posted on 12/26/22 at 9:41 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
It blows my mind we’re finally running low.
The US Army is moving away from tube artillery. It wont go away completely but rocket artillery is the now.
Gt23 mentioned it but Marine Battle Groups (Batt size) are being built around HIMARS batteries.
Posted on 12/26/22 at 11:54 pm to Lakeboy7
We will never completely abandon tube artillery but I do think in the next 20 years you won’t have towed howitzers. All tube artillery will be self propelled. With drone warfare becoming standard and artillery that can fire GPS rounds the time it takes to set up and break down towed pieces, even ones as fast as the M777, will become obsolete. No question HIMARS and systems like it will take on a larger role in the future but you will still need conventional artillery it just will have to be 100% mobile to shoot and scoot.
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