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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/6/22 at 4:57 pm to Jim Rockford
Posted on 12/6/22 at 4:57 pm to Jim Rockford
Reality is that Russian propaganda hasn't changed methods for 100 years. It is meant to cause chaos and comes from both the far right and the far left.
This is why Buckley disparaged the John Birch Society decades ago.
My dad was alarmed by the Birchers because of his contact with a Russian political officer at the end of WWII when he decommissioned a USN weather base on the Kamchatka Peninsula. The political officer was the only Russian who spoke English and bragged about how Russia would take the US down from the inside via this method
This is why Buckley disparaged the John Birch Society decades ago.
My dad was alarmed by the Birchers because of his contact with a Russian political officer at the end of WWII when he decommissioned a USN weather base on the Kamchatka Peninsula. The political officer was the only Russian who spoke English and bragged about how Russia would take the US down from the inside via this method
1
Posted on 12/6/22 at 5:58 pm to Obtuse1
There’s a reason why just about every friendly military in the world flies the 130. She’s a big fat old bitch that can carry whatever you need into and out of the shittiest landing strips known to man and say thank you sir may have another? Great power and big wings let’s it fly low and slow when you need it. People often compare the 130 and the C-17 but it’s really not a fair comp. The C-17 is a true heavy lifter that would be more fairly compared to the C-5 but it is a surprising agile aircraft once it gets in he air. It just can’t fly the low and slow missions as well like the 130 can but that’s just physics. Something that big that can lift that much needs more power and thus airspeed to operate but it has completely changed the way our military operates logistically and is the backbone of our transport capability. Ask the Ukrainians how important the C-17 has been to their war effort. They are landing all over Poland everyday right now.
This post was edited on 12/6/22 at 8:18 pm
Posted on 12/6/22 at 6:37 pm to CitizenK
The unsettling part is those types will quickly point out the absurdity of BLM, Avenatti, et al in order to justify their own idiocy but are ignorant that the lunacy from both sides comes from the same place.
It’s designed to make one half of America lose touch entirely with the other half, and it’s working.
It’s designed to make one half of America lose touch entirely with the other half, and it’s working.
Posted on 12/6/22 at 7:06 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Even if Ukraine still has more of these modified Soviet jet drones, I don't think that Ukraine will be able to pull off more of these attacks anytime soon, because Russia will now be looking for them and would shoot them down.
Ukraine has a couple hundred TU-141 and TU-143s according to wikipedia. Yes the Russians should be able to look out for them and shoot them down, but that assumes that Russia’s air defense operators are paying attention. That also assumes that the drones are flying above radar level. Also the TU-141 and TU-143 are larger than what we think about when we consider drones. They are the size of a small airplane so it would be fairly easy for Ukraine to fool a Russian air defense operator who is probably drinking on the job because he is bored his officers have not told him to look out for anything because the Russian military tells its soldiers very little of its enemies capabilities.
Posted on 12/6/22 at 7:34 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
Do you realize this would all be over a long time ago if the USA hadn't stepped in. The vast majority of people that have died would have been avoided. Their blood is the result of NATO. Also your side keeps arguing that Russia invaded . But the invaded because the USA went back on their agreement with Russia and kept on expanding NATO eastward for decades before Russia had enough. So the USA is ultimately the root cause of ever death in this war.
Had to be a Russian bot that posted that; either that or an anti American zealot that wants to blame the US for anything and everything.
Posted on 12/6/22 at 8:35 pm to WeeWee
Just looking objectively though even if Ukraine still has 100-200 of the Tu-141 & 143 left I would be surprised if even 30% of them still work. That’s an ancient system that most likely hasn’t been touched in decades. I think this was more of a one off surprise attack than something we see much of again. Still was a nice little mind frick for them.
Posted on 12/6/22 at 9:45 pm to LSUPilot07
Listening to Col Spencer on Times Podcast Youtube. Here is his updated mini manual on Urban Warfare. Some of his suggestions were used in defense of Kyiv and he has further studied the war specifically certain battles and updated this mini manual.
He has been very impressed in how Zelensky has worked with his military and how planning for political objectives have been closely with Military input. Also quite impressive is ow Ukraine has use terrain exceptionally well to their advantage.
Here is a link to the mini-manual page on his website.
LINK
The Interview among others here. LINK
He has been very impressed in how Zelensky has worked with his military and how planning for political objectives have been closely with Military input. Also quite impressive is ow Ukraine has use terrain exceptionally well to their advantage.
Here is a link to the mini-manual page on his website.
LINK
The Interview among others here. LINK
Posted on 12/6/22 at 10:10 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
Just looking objectively though even if Ukraine still has 100-200 of the Tu-141 & 143 left I would be surprised if even 30% of them still work. That’s an ancient system that most likely hasn’t been touched in decades. I think this was more of a one off surprise attack than something we see much of again. Still was a nice little mind frick for them.
The beauty of the ancient system is that they are not that complex to repair. They are also not that hard to duplicate. Ukraine has the engineers and the facilities to repair and convert them in. The Ukrainian government also just nationalized Motor Sich which can repair or build new engines for the drones. So they can bring them back into flying condition.
Right now Ukraine’s air defense can intercept approximately 60-65missiles at a time. If Ukraine has 100+ of these drones then they will be able to keep striking Russia’s forces preparing for missile swarms since it takes several days for Russia to prepare and coordinate for a strike. If they can reduce the number of missiles being launched at Ukraine by Russia and keep it below 80 missiles or so which will be huge win for Ukraine because it will buy them time for more western air defenses to arrive and time to repair their infrastructure.
Posted on 12/6/22 at 11:00 pm to WeeWee
Ukraine made weapons for Russia before 2014. I guess they do know their business. Also was 40% of brain power for R&D as well as 40% of manufacturing for the USSR
Posted on 12/6/22 at 11:07 pm to WeeWee
True but they being so old and leaving a pretty good heat signature with the jet engine will make them a lot more vulnerable to anti air defenses now too. This attack on the airfields caught them off guard tithe first time and even then they still purposely did them during during a normal shift change between crews for AA defenses just to be safe. My point being that Russia at least has the alert now that it can happen. They are inept but any military worth any sense would draw a circle on a map 1000 km around and then prioritize probable targets and then arrange air defenses accordingly but who knows with Russia. If it has the ability to be precise enough you’d have to wonder why they wouldn’t try to send a couple at the Kerch Bridge just as their completing repairs. The odds of it getting shot down would be great though since the bridge is covered in air defense now.
This post was edited on 12/6/22 at 11:09 pm
Posted on 12/7/22 at 3:40 am to doubleb
ISW update
quote:
The Kremlin directly responded to Russian rumors of a second wave of mobilization in an apparent effort to manage growing societal concern and recentralize information about the war with the Russian government and its authorized outlets.Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov on December 6 urged Russians to rely on communications from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the president and to ignore the “provocative messages” published on social media platforms such as Telegram regarding a second wave of mobilization
quote:
The Kremlin seems to be departing from the limited war messaging it has been using to reduce concerns among the general Russian public about the war, likely in an effort to condition the public for future mobilization waves
quote:
Putin’s decision to order a second wave of mobilization, general mobilization, or even announce a formal declaration of war with Ukraine will not fix the inherent constraints on Russian military power available for the war in Ukraine in the short term. The Russian MoD can only simultaneously train about 130,000 conscripts during a bi-annual conscription cycle in peacetime and has struggled painfully to prepare a larger number of mobilized men over a shorter period...The Kremlin’s force generation efforts remain contingent on its ability to invest time and supplies into its personnel, requirements that are badly at odds with the Kremlin’s lack of long-term strategic planning.
quote:
Igor Girkin, a former Russian militant commander and prominent critical voice in the Russian milblogger information space, returned to Telegram following a nearly two-month stint in Ukraine and used his return to offer a vitriolic first-hand account of the situation on the frontlines. ...Girkin detailed his multiple and unsuccessful efforts to register and join various units and contentious interactions with Russian and Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) commanders and noted that he finally joined a DNR battalion illegally, which allowed him to deploy to the Svatove area in Luhansk Oblast.[10] Girkin concluded that based on his experience on the frontline, it is clear that Russian forces are suffering from a “crisis of strategic planning” due to the fact that troops are relying only on tactical inertia and not cohering around a wider strategic goal.[11] Girkin also noted that the Kremlin will be unsuccessful in igniting protests in Ukraine with its missile campaign against critical energy infrastructure, further noting that winter weather will not stop Ukrainian forces from advancing
quote:
Key Takeaways
The Kremlin directly responded to Russian rumors of a second wave of mobilization in an apparent effort to manage growing societal concern and recentralize information about the war with the Russian government and its authorized outlets, but there are several indicators that Russia still intends to conduct a second wave of mobilization.
Igor Girkin, a former Russian militant commander and prominent critical voice in the Russian milblogger information space, returned to Telegram following a nearly two-month stint in Ukraine and used his return to offer a vitriolic first-hand account of the situation on the frontlines.
Ukrainian forces likely made recent gains in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, and Russian forces conducted limited attacks and defended against Ukrainian counteroffensive actions.
Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks near Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces made marginal territorial advances near Bakhmut, but Russian forces have not succeeded in their efforts to surround the city.
Russian authorities are very likely conducting an information operation to convince Russians of the security and integrity of the Kerch Strait Bridge following repairs to the bridge span.
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova denied rumors on December 5 that Russia is preparing to withdraw from or transfer control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to another actor.
Russian occupation authorities continued to strengthen security measures in occupied territories.
Posted on 12/7/22 at 6:46 am to StormyMcMan
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 7 December 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Russia has recently started extending defensive positions along its international border with Ukraine, and deep inside its Belgorod region. On 6 December 2022, the governor of Belgorod announced he was establishing local 'self-defence units. Trench digging has been reported in Belgorod since at least April 2022, but the new constructions are probably more elaborate systems, designed to rebuff mechanised assault.
There is a realistic possibility that the Russian authorities are promoting defensive preparations within internationally recognised Russian territory to burnish patriotic feeling. However, it probably illustrates some Russia decision-makers' genuine (but false) belief that there is a credible threat of invasion by Ukrainian forces.
Paucity in strategic assessment is one of the critical weaknesses in the central Russian government architecture: as highlighted by Russia's original decision to invade Ukraine. Impartial official analysis is almost certainly frequently undermined by a tendency toward group-think and politically expedient conclusions.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 7 December 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Russia has recently started extending defensive positions along its international border with Ukraine, and deep inside its Belgorod region. On 6 December 2022, the governor of Belgorod announced he was establishing local 'self-defence units. Trench digging has been reported in Belgorod since at least April 2022, but the new constructions are probably more elaborate systems, designed to rebuff mechanised assault.
There is a realistic possibility that the Russian authorities are promoting defensive preparations within internationally recognised Russian territory to burnish patriotic feeling. However, it probably illustrates some Russia decision-makers' genuine (but false) belief that there is a credible threat of invasion by Ukrainian forces.
Paucity in strategic assessment is one of the critical weaknesses in the central Russian government architecture: as highlighted by Russia's original decision to invade Ukraine. Impartial official analysis is almost certainly frequently undermined by a tendency toward group-think and politically expedient conclusions.
Posted on 12/7/22 at 7:36 am to cypher
quote:
Paucity in strategic assessment is one of the critical weaknesses in the central Russian government architecture: as highlighted by Russia's original decision to invade Ukraine. Impartial official analysis is almost certainly frequently undermined by a tendency toward group-think and politically expedient conclusions.
This is an exceptionally well-stated point that describes the dysfunction in the Russian authoritarian government. Robust and honest analysis can only occur when disagreement is tolerated. When everyone’s first concern is to not upset the next level higher up, productive critical analysis is impossible.
Posted on 12/7/22 at 11:07 am to LSUPilot07
Screw it. Send them all at Kerch. 
Posted on 12/7/22 at 11:35 am to TigersSEC2010
Yesterday, the US approved the sale of an additional 116 Abrams tanks to Poland, on top of the 250 that they already ordered.
The result:
Very soon, Poland will be the strongest military in Europe. It's not just tanks that they are buying.
And Poland is extremely committed to heavily supporting Ukraine for the long term.
The result:
Very soon, Poland will be the strongest military in Europe. It's not just tanks that they are buying.
And Poland is extremely committed to heavily supporting Ukraine for the long term.
Posted on 12/7/22 at 11:45 am to Chromdome35
Posted on 12/7/22 at 11:47 am to TBoy
quote:
This is an exceptionally well-stated point that describes the dysfunction in the Russian authoritarian government. Robust and honest analysis can only occur when disagreement is tolerated. When everyone’s first concern is to not upset the next level higher up, productive critical analysis is impossible.
"Communication is only possible between equals." - Robert Anton Wilson. His Illuminatus! series does a great job of illustrating how screwed Authoritarian societies are when it comes to decision making. And it's a damn fun read.
Posted on 12/7/22 at 1:24 pm to Tigris
Igor Girkin returns from the front lines
https://twitter.com/wartranslated
Original Source Link
https://t.co/7ZCgBWIekC
https://twitter.com/wartranslated
quote:
Girkin is back, and in a long post describing his impressions slanders the Russian approach, saying the Russian forces are apathetic, the soldiers don't know what they're fighting for, and is not expecting any success in the near future.
Original Source Link
https://t.co/7ZCgBWIekC
Posted on 12/7/22 at 2:33 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
This attack on the airfields caught them off guard tithe first time and even then they still purposely did them during during a normal shift change between crews for AA defenses just to be safe. My point being that Russia at least has the alert now that it can happen. They are inept but any military worth any sense would draw a circle on a map 1000 km around and then prioritize probable targets and then arrange air defenses accordingly but who knows with Russia.
There is inept and then their is Russia. Russia has been downplaying Ukraine’s capabilities this entire war. When I was in Ukraine earlier this year and interacted with Russian pows they told me that they were surprised Ukrainian troops had AKs. The Russian officers told the Russian troops that they Ukrainians were armed with Mosin-Nagants and they might have 5 rounds of ammo per soldier so they didn’t really have to worry about the Ukrainian infantry. I highly doubt Russia has changed its ways and I highly doubt Russia has briefed its air defense troops on Ukraine’s new capability.
quote:
If it has the ability to be precise enough you’d have to wonder why they wouldn’t try to send a couple at the Kerch Bridge just as their completing repairs
1. The bridge is still down so why waste a drone on it right now?
2. The max warhead on these drones is 75kg which isn’t going to do much against a bridge, but is effective against aircraft in the open and fuel tanks etc.
Posted on 12/7/22 at 3:29 pm to Chromdome35
From Oryx:
Germany also promised more stuff today LINK:
Also, back in early November, the US promised Ukraine 250 M1117 Guardians. There's a video from today from a train in Romania, heading towards Ukraine, that shows at least 37 of them on the train: LINK
quote:
Fact Sheet On German Military Aid To #Ukraine
Moved from PLEDGED to DELIVERED:
- 20 Dingo MRAPs
- 2 Oshkosh M1070 Tank Transporters
Germany also promised more stuff today LINK:
quote:
• 18 wheeled self-propelled howitzers RCH 155*
• 80 Pick-up*
• 100 anti-drone sensors and jammers* (before: 10)*
• 2 hangar tents*
• 7 load-handling trucks 8x6*
Also, back in early November, the US promised Ukraine 250 M1117 Guardians. There's a video from today from a train in Romania, heading towards Ukraine, that shows at least 37 of them on the train: LINK
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