re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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1. Russia leaves all Ukrainian territory
2. 100 KM security zone around the borders of Belarus, RU, UKR patrolled by a coalition of 6 nations
3. NATO Membership tabled for 7 years
4. Crimea would become neutral
5. RU Navy leaves Black Sea

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4. Crimea would become neutral

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Yeah, about that:
"The Pentagon under the Biden administration has rolled out a revised Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), and it allows for nuclear responses to non-nuclear events.
It’s not MAGA extremist right-wingers who are noting this with alarm, it’s liberal and hard-left peaceniks.

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House GOP: Biden Must Explain Push To Reduce Role Of Nuclear Weapons

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Rumors of a new Peace Proposal brokered by Western Europe

1. Russia leaves all Ukrainian territory
2. 100 KM security zone around the borders of Belarus, RU, UKR patrolled by a coalition of 6 nations
3. NATO Membership tabled for 7 years
4. Crimea would become neutral
5. RU Navy leaves Black Sea
This post was edited on 12/7 at 3:38 pm

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Russian President Vladimir Putin is setting conditions for a protracted war of conquest in Ukraine. During a meeting with the Russian Presidential Council for the Development of Civil Society and Human Rights (HRC), Putin remarked that the “special operation” in Ukraine can be a “lengthy process” and that the acquisition of new territory is a significant result of this process for Russia.[1] Putin compared himself favorably with Russian Tsar Peter the Great by noting that Russia now controls the Sea of Azov, which Peter the Great also fought for.[2] This invocation of Russian imperial history explicitly frames Putin’s current goals in Ukraine as overtly imperialistic and still maximalist. Putin is conditioning Russian domestic audiences to expect a protracted, grinding war in Ukraine that continues to seek the conquest of additional Ukrainian territory.

The Russian information space responded positively to Putin’s assertions and set further conditions for the protraction of the war, with one milblogger comparing Ukraine to Syria and noting that Russian forces did not start meaningfully experiencing victories on the battlefield until years into the operation

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Putin notably is using the Russian HRC as a means to consolidate political power in a way that is fundamentally incompatible with basic principles of international human rights law.

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Putin reiterated Russia’s formal position on the use of nuclear weapons in a statement to the Russian HRC on December 7 with no noteworthy changes. Putin claimed that the threat of nuclear war is growing, but that Russia will not be the first to employ nuclear weapons.[7] Putin added, however, that if Russia is not the first to initiate the first use of nuclear weapons, it will also not be the second to do so, because the “possibility of using [a nuclear weapon] in the event of a nuclear strike on [Russian] territory are very limited.”[8] Putin reiterated that Russian nuclear doctrine is premised on self-defense and stated that any Russian nuclear use would be retaliatory. Putin also emphasized that Russia is not “crazy” and is acutely aware of the power of nuclear weapons but will not “brandish” them

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NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the Russian military seeks an operational pause in winter 2022-2023 to regain the initiative and conduct a counteroffensive in spring 2023, partially supporting ISW’s prior assessment.[10] Stoltenberg told the Financial Times on December 7 that Russia seeks to “freeze” the fighting in Ukraine “at least for a short period of time so they can regroup, repair, recover... [a]nd then try to launch a bigger offensive next spring.”

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Putin continues to seem unwilling to pursue such a cessation of fighting, however. The Russian military is continuing offensive operations around Bakhmut and is—so far—denying itself the operational pause that would be consistent with best military practice. Putin’s current fixation with continuing offensive operations around Bakhmut and elsewhere is contributing to Ukraine’s ability to maintain the military initiative in other parts of the theater. Ukraine’s continued operational successes depend on Ukrainian forces’ ability to continue successive operations through the winter of 2022-2023 without interruption.[

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Russian forces used Iranian-made drones to strike Ukrainian cities for the first time in three weeks, likely as a result of Russian forces having modified the drones for colder weather. Ukrainian Air Force Command Spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat stated on December 7 that Russian forces resumed the use of Iranian-made loitering munitions after a three-week break and suggested that Russian forces had faced complications using the drones due to icing issues in colder weather.

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Russian efforts to pressure Belarus into joining the war in Ukraine may be causing internal friction in the Belarusian military. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 7 that soldiers of the Belarusian border service and the Belarusian Armed forces are growing increasingly dissatisfied with the activities of the Belarusian military-political leadership due to the threat of Belarus entering the war in Ukraine.[18] ISW has previously assessed that Russian Defense Minister Army General Shoigu met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Belarusian Defense Minister Major General Viktor Khrenin on December 3 to place further pressure on Belarus to support Russia‘s offensive campaign in Ukraine.[19] ISW has also previously reported that Belarusian officials, including Lukashenko and Khrenin, have used rhetoric to support an ongoing Russian information operation aimed at fixing Ukrainian forces on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border with the threat of Belarus entering the war.[20] Russian pressure and the participation of Belarusian officials in the ongoing Russian information operation may be causing unease among Belarusian military personnel. ISW continues to assess that Belarus is highly unlikely to enter the war in Ukraine due to domestic factors that constrain Lukashenko’s willingness to do so.

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Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin is setting conditions for a protracted war of conquest in Ukraine.

Putin is using Russia’s Human Rights Council to consolidate power while rejecting principles of international human rights law.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg made comments supporting ISW’s previous assessments that an operational pause in the winter of 2022-2023 would favor Russia.

Russian forces used Shahed-136 drones in Ukraine for the first time in three weeks.

Russian efforts to pressure Belarus into joining the war in Ukraine may be causing friction in the Belarusian military.

Russian forces are likely increasing the pace of their counterattacks in eastern Kharkiv and western Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City areas.

Russian forces continued defensive operations and the reorientation of their forces in eastern Kherson Oblast.

Independent Russian media sources indicated that mobilization efforts will continue despite statements from Russian officials to the contrary.

Russian occupation authorities are likely transforming Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast, into a rear military and logistics base for Russian forces.

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And Zelensky worked to create a situation whereby NATO was going to move in and be right on Russia's border.

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