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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/3/22 at 8:34 pm to Lakeboy7
Posted on 12/3/22 at 8:34 pm to Lakeboy7
ISW Update
quote:
Ukrainian forces reportedly reached the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River across from Kherson City.
quote:
French President Emmanuel Macron amplified Russian information operations about the West’s need to discuss Russian “security guarantees” in a televised interview on December 3....ISW has extensively documented how the Kremlin demanded “security guarantees” and declared “lines” as part of the ultimatum it presented the US and NATO before launching the February 2022 invasion.[6] Russia’s demanded security guarantees entail partially dismantling NATO by returning NATO to its 1997 borders and grants Russia a veto on future NATO expansion by demanding NATO suspend its “Open Door” policy.[7] Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov referred to these precise demands on December 1, as ISW previously reported.[8] The Russian demand for supposed “security guarantees” is part of a larger Russian information operation that portrays NATO as having provoked the 2022 Russian invasion by threatening Russia. The security guarantees that Ukraine, NATO, and the rest of Europe would accept from Russia following the Kremlin’s unprovoked and brutal war of conquest against Ukraine might be a more appropriate topic of conversation for Western leaders considering negotiations with Moscow.
quote:
Independent Russian polling data indicates that Russian citizens still support Russia’s military operations in Ukraine despite growing war weariness over the past six months... Both polls indicate that a shrinking but still significant portion of Russian citizens support—and are even enthusiastic about—continuing the war in Ukraine despite Russian military failures.
quote:
Conditions in eastern Ukraine are reportedly becoming more conducive for a higher pace of operations as winter sets in.
quote:
The Russian and Belarusian Ministers of Defense met in Minsk likely to further strengthen bilateral security ties between Russia and Belarus.
quote:
Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri reportedly met with Russian Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General Alexander Fomin in Tehran on December 3.
quote:
Key Takeaways
Ukrainian forces reportedly reached the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River across from Kherson City.
French President Emmanuel Macron amplified Russian information operations about the need for NATO to consider “security guarantees” to be given to Russia during putative negotiations in a televised interview on December 3.
Conditions in eastern Ukraine are likely becoming more conducive to a higher pace of operations as winter sets in.
The Russian and Belarusian Ministers of Defense met in Minsk likely to further strengthen bilateral security ties between Russia and Belarus.
Ukrainian forces likely continue to advance northwest of Kreminna.
Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut, in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area, and in western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts.
Russian authorities reportedly evacuated Russian collaborators from Oleshky.
The Russian National Guard’s (Rosgvardia) Organizational and Staff Department confirmed that mobilization continues despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of the formal end of partial mobilization on October 31.
Russian authorities are continuing to use judicial measures to consolidate administrative control of occupied territories.
Posted on 12/3/22 at 8:37 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
The Russian demand for supposed “security guarantees” is part of a larger Russian information operation that portrays NATO as having provoked the 2022 Russian invasion by threatening Russia.
It worked on the politards.
Posted on 12/3/22 at 8:39 pm to StormyMcMan
Wish we could see some details about Kreminna
Posted on 12/3/22 at 8:41 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Russia’s demanded security guarantees entail partially dismantling NATO by returning NATO to its 1997 borders and grants Russia a veto on future NATO expansion by demanding NATO suspend its “Open Door” policy.[7] Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov referred to these precise demands on December 1, as ISW previously reported.[8] The Russian demand for supposed “security guarantees” is part of a larger Russian information operation that portrays NATO as having provoked the 2022 Russian invasion by threatening Russia. The security guarantees that Ukraine, NATO, and the rest of Europe would accept from Russia following the Kremlin’s unprovoked and brutal war of conquest against Ukraine might be a more appropriate topic of conversation for Western leaders considering negotiations with Moscow.
None of that is going to happen.
Posted on 12/3/22 at 8:47 pm to jeffsdad
quote:
Wish we could see some details about Kreminna
quote:
Russian forces continued to defend their positions against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in the directions of Kreminna and Svatove on December 3. Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces are conducting defensive operations amidst fierce battles near Kreminna and Svatove.[21] Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian forces are also building a second line of defense near Starobilsk (55km southeast of Svatove).[22] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces prevented Ukrainian attacks within 14km northwest of Svatove near Kuzemivka and Kolomyichykha and within 2km north of Kreminna near Zhytlivka.[23] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces have reached Chervonopopivka (6km north of Kreminna) and that Russian forces no longer control part of the P-66 highway north of Kreminna.[24] The Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are increasing the pace of their counteroffensive operations in eastern Kharkiv and western Luhansk oblasts.[25] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault near Chervonopopivka, further indicating that Ukrainian forces have likely made advances in the area.[26] A prominent Russian milblogger’s map posted on December 3 similarly shows Chervonopopivka outside of the Russian area of control.[27] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued routine indirect fire along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine.[28]
Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian force concentration areas and logistics nodes in Luhansk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian force concentration on December 2 in the vicinity of Starobilsk, killing 14 Russian personnel and wounding 30.[29] Russian sources claimed on December 3 that Ukrainian forces struck Khoroshe, Starobilsk, Svatove, and Novochervone in Luhansk Oblast with HIMARS rockets.[30]
Posted on 12/3/22 at 8:56 pm to jeffsdad
quote:
Wish we could see some details about Kreminna
C'mon man, this isn't a Babe Thread.
Posted on 12/3/22 at 9:03 pm to StormyMcMan
FTR, on giving ammo to Ukraine, I well remember the costly disposal of 6 million pounds of M6 Artillery Shell propellant at Camp Minden, Louisiana a decade ago. One FUBAR operation if there was one.
Posted on 12/3/22 at 9:04 pm to supadave3
Kreminna and Svatove won't be under Russian control for long, now that the ground is frozen. Ukraine is pressing all along that sector.
Posted on 12/4/22 at 2:43 am to StormyMcMan
quote:He's been doing this for months. What a weasel. It's almost like he's a bought-and-paid-for shill.
French President Emmanuel Macron amplified Russian information operations
Posted on 12/4/22 at 3:02 am to Coeur du Tigre
Margarita Simonyan going on one of her patent pending rants, including how they took Kyiv in the early stages of the war.
YT
Former ambassador to NATO re: what is winning, how they can't lose and they must take Kyiv to win.
YT
This one takes the cake. It is about Russia stealing kids and yes Olga that is the exact definition of stealing kids/kidnapping even if you do take them to "holiday camps" in Crimea.
Twitter
YT
Former ambassador to NATO re: what is winning, how they can't lose and they must take Kyiv to win.
YT
This one takes the cake. It is about Russia stealing kids and yes Olga that is the exact definition of stealing kids/kidnapping even if you do take them to "holiday camps" in Crimea.
This post was edited on 12/4/22 at 3:27 am
Posted on 12/4/22 at 6:15 am to Obtuse1
quote:
22 p.m. ET, December 3, 2022
Zelensky criticizes the EU's Russian oil price cap as a "weak position"
From CNN's Mariya Knight
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the European Union's Russian oil cap decision a “weak position" and still too “comfortable for the budget of a terrorist state” in his nightly address Saturday.
The EU reached a consensus Friday on the price at which to cap Russian oil, just days before its ban on most imports comes into force. The bloc’s 27 member states agreed to set the cap at $60 a barrel.
The move is aimed at reducing inflows to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war chest without adding to stress on the global economy by further reducing the supply of energy.
But Ukraine's president said it didn't go far enough, saying the situation had called for "big decisions."
“You wouldn't call it a big decision to set such a limit for Russian prices, which is quite comfortable for the budget of a terrorist state,” Zelensky said. He added that Russia has already “caused huge losses to all countries of the world by deliberately destabilizing the energy market.”
“The logic is obvious: If the price limit for Russian oil is $60 instead of, for example, $30 — which Poland and the Baltic countries talked about — then the Russian budget will receive about a hundred billion dollars a year,” Zelensky said.
Posted on 12/4/22 at 6:25 am to Cobra Tate
quote:
Lithuania sends two more self-propelled howitzer back to Ukraine
Lithuania has sent two more self-propelled howitzer 2000s back to Ukraine after repairing them.
The tanks were delivered together with ammunition, the defence ministry in Vilnius said.
Lithuanian Defence Minister Arvydas Anusauskas said on Twitter in late November that the two howitzers were being repaired in the EU and NATO country.
Posted on 12/4/22 at 7:01 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 4 December 2022
Recent polling suggests that Russian public support for the 'special military operation' is falling significantly.
An independent Russian media outlet has claimed access to data collected by Russia's Federal Protective Service for internal use. The data indicated 55% of Russians favour peace talks with Ukraine, with only 25% claiming to support continuing the conflict. These results are consistent with a separate October 2022 survey where 57% of respondents reported being in favour of talks. In April 2022, around 80% of Russians claimed to support the operation.
Despite the Russian authorities' efforts to enforce pervasive control of the information environment, the conflict has become increasingly tangible for many Russians since the September 2022 'partial mobilisation. With Russia unlikely to achieve major battlefield successes in the next several months, maintaining even tacit approval of the war amongst the population is likely to be increasingly difficult for the Kremlin.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 4 December 2022
Recent polling suggests that Russian public support for the 'special military operation' is falling significantly.
An independent Russian media outlet has claimed access to data collected by Russia's Federal Protective Service for internal use. The data indicated 55% of Russians favour peace talks with Ukraine, with only 25% claiming to support continuing the conflict. These results are consistent with a separate October 2022 survey where 57% of respondents reported being in favour of talks. In April 2022, around 80% of Russians claimed to support the operation.
Despite the Russian authorities' efforts to enforce pervasive control of the information environment, the conflict has become increasingly tangible for many Russians since the September 2022 'partial mobilisation. With Russia unlikely to achieve major battlefield successes in the next several months, maintaining even tacit approval of the war amongst the population is likely to be increasingly difficult for the Kremlin.
Posted on 12/4/22 at 7:19 am to cypher
Russia publicly executed five civilians in Luhansk and hung signs around their necks that say things such as "Traitor" and "Death to Spies."
If those photos are too gruesome for TD, please tell me and I'll remove them.
If those photos are too gruesome for TD, please tell me and I'll remove them.
Posted on 12/4/22 at 1:23 pm to GOP_Tiger
The poor guy on the right received the special Russian treatment before they hung him. They like to stab people in the thigh to get them to tell them what they want to know in the promise that they will dress the wound if they are told. What they don’t say is even if they tell them what they want to know they are still mandated to kill them by their superiors. One is a woman also. Savages. On another note, 3 large ships loaded with US Abrams tanks, Bradleys, Strykers and other vehicles unloaded in Poland yesterday. This won’t go to Ukraine of course but it is without a doubt a message to Putin to step carefully. Another Su-34 was shot down with a MANPAD in Bakhmut Friday.
This post was edited on 12/4/22 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 12/4/22 at 1:45 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
3 large ships loaded with US Abrams tanks, Bradleys, Strykers and other vehicles unloaded in Poland yesterday.
Some of this is rotational but we are beefing up the heavy stuff no doubt.
Posted on 12/4/22 at 1:48 pm to bamadontcare
quote:
. Russia has 30,000 Ukrainians surrounded at Bahkmut in a cauldron
Let's look at the reality on the ground based on recent open source intel.
The Russians are pressing in from the front and a little on the sides but not enough to be a real threat to cut off the Ukrainians and definitely does not have them surrounded.
quote:
grinding up, over 1,000 artillery rounds per day is fired into the cauldron.
Excellent. That front has evolved into WW1 style trench warfare. Just like in WW1 artillery bombardments are mostly ineffective because the Ukrainians just wait it out in their bunkers. Let the Russians wear out their artillery tubes attacking Bahkmut (which is a town with no strategic value for either side) because then those artillery pieces won't be available to counter Ukraine's moves when the ground freezes enough to allow for sustained armored and mechanized advances.
quote:
The Ukrainian Commander on the ground calls it a Colossal Disaster.
Zelensky has gone all in and committed his reserves. And called up 50,000 Ukrainian women because he has no longer suitable aged young males.
This could be Ukraine's Stalingrad moment. Biden, NATO the UK are all war criminals. Russia and Zelensky had terms in March and Biden/UK/NATO said NO. Fight to the last Ukrainian.
So unless the Ukrainian Commander on the ground surrenders. Russia will kill every last one of them.
There are another 250,000 Russian troops moving towards the front. And Russia is about to unleash, according to US Satellite Intel, a massive 300 missile attack on what is left of Ukranian power grid and gas grids.
Winter is here. Biden is mumbling something about being surrounded by Nincompoops and sending signals Friday that perhaps its time to talk to Putin. But only if Russia leaves Ukraine
Russia will keep all the land they paid for in blood, they will take the whole coast line all the way to Odessa now and Transnistria.
Poland is now talking of taking back their former parts of Ukraine that were give to Ukraine at the end of WW2.
Ukraine may no longer exist except as a small rump when this is over.
Do you have a link to support any of the crap you just posted?
Posted on 12/4/22 at 2:37 pm to GOP_Tiger
A NOLA friend, combat vet, former USMC enlisted, former access to Trump WH, thinks that Russia's implosion in imminent.
The signs are there, Armenia is cracking down on pro-Russia protesters even though a CSTO nation. Russia no showed even though equivalent to NATO Article 5 achieved.
The US had to intervene with Azerbaijan to stop that local military action against Armenia.
Syrian protesters literally at Assad's front door with Russia being pre-occupied.
The signs are there, Armenia is cracking down on pro-Russia protesters even though a CSTO nation. Russia no showed even though equivalent to NATO Article 5 achieved.
The US had to intervene with Azerbaijan to stop that local military action against Armenia.
Syrian protesters literally at Assad's front door with Russia being pre-occupied.
Posted on 12/4/22 at 2:46 pm to WeeWee
If I were Ukraine I’d do just that. Let them use up their dwindling artillery stocks and wear their barrels out while I pulled the vast majority of my own artillery back out of harms way and send the ones needing repair to Poland leaving just enough guns on the line to keep the Russians from advancing and using heavy mortars more as a form of artillery. These next 2 weeks or so Ukraine needs to do as much restocking and repairs as they can because when the ground freezes over that will need every available weapon that they can get on the line. I know the Lithuanians are working their asses off to get the German PzH2000s fixed and sent back and they have about 1/3 of the M777s we sent in Poland right now for repair as well.
This post was edited on 12/4/22 at 2:49 pm
Posted on 12/4/22 at 2:52 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Russia's implosion in imminent.
That could explain why more heavy stuff is moving. I dont know about imminent but I dont see any way there is a resolution.
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