re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Russia is attempting to capitalize on the Western desire for negotiations to create a dynamic in which Western officials feel pressed to make preemptive concessions to lure Russia to the negotiating table.

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Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to Biden’s comments on December 2 stating that Biden seems to be demanding the removal of Russian forces from Ukraine as a precondition for negotiations and said that the “special military operation” would continue.

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Putin’s and Peskov’s statements regarding negotiations follow Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s December 1 comments in the context of a meeting of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) repeating precisely the same demand the Kremlin had made of the US and NATO before the February 24 invasion.

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ISW has previously assessed that Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric indicates that he is not interested in negotiating seriously with Ukraine and retains maximalist objectives for the war

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Putin has shown little interest in such a ceasefire, however, and the Kremlin continues to make demands that are tantamount to full Western surrender, suggesting that Putin remains focused on pursuing military victory.

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Western leaders rebuffed the Kremlin’s efforts and reaffirmed their support for Ukraine

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Russia may be trying to use its coordinated missile-strike campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure and the associated humanitarian situation in Ukraine to add pressure on Western officials to offer preemptive concessions.

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Russia still poses a threat to the Ukrainian energy grid and civilian population despite Ukraine air defense forces’ high rates of shooting down Russian missiles and drones at the current level of Ukrainian air defense capabilities

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The small percentage of Russian strikes getting through Ukraine’s air defenses are nevertheless having significant effects on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stating that recent strikes had left six million Ukrainians without power ahead of winter

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Russia will likely continue to target Ukrainian critical infrastructure at least as long as enough Russian weapons can get through to achieve effects.

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Additional Western-provided air defense systems are prompting the Russian pro-war community to question the long-term sustainability of the Russian missile campaign.

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Such panic among Russian milbloggers highlights the vulnerability of the Russian missile campaign if the West continues to enhance Ukraine’s air- and missile-defense capabilities.

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Russia is setting conditions to negotiate the demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in return for a Ukrainian guarantee of the continued flow of gas to Europe through the Druzhba pipeline, but Russia would likely violate any such agreement and blame Ukraine for not upholding it.

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The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 1 that Russia is pulling forces and occupation authorities from various parts of occupied Zaporizhia Oblast, and Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on December 2 that there are only 500 Russian military personnel at the ZNPP and that withdrawing Russian personnel-planted 300 mines in the industrial zone of Enerhodar

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Demilitarizing the ZNPP without a withdrawal of Russian forces from broader western Zaporizhia Oblast would not eliminate or diminish the ongoing threat to the ZNPP

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Key Takeaways

Russia is attempting to capitalize on the Western desire for negotiations to create a dynamic in which Western officials feel obliged to make preemptive concessions to lure Russia to the table.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated as the basis for negotiations precisely the same demands that the Russian Foreign Ministry had made before the February 24 invasion, and Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitrii Peskov added the further demand that the West recognize Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory.

Russian forces still pose a threat to Ukrainian energy infrastructure despite the success of Ukrainian air defenses.

Additional Western air defense systems are prompting the Russian pro-war community to question the Russian air campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure.

Russian officials are setting conditions to negotiate the demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), an agreement upon which Russia would likely renege and that would not eliminate or diminish the ongoing threat to the ZNPP.

Ukrainian forces made localized breakthroughs southwest and northwest of Kreminna.

Russian forces continued to make minimal advances in the Bakhmut area and conduct offensive operations in the Avdiivka–Donetsk City area.

Russian forces may be struggling to properly allocate and deploy forces in rear areas in southern Ukraine due to Ukrainian strikes.

Poor logistics, unruly mobilized personnel, and domestic protests continue to prevent the Kremlin from achieving the goals of partial mobilization.

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to attempt to mask military development projects in occupied territories for no obvious reason.

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There is a realistic possibility that Bakhmut's capture has become primarily a symbolic, political objective for Russia.

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There are another 250,000 Russian troops moving towards the front.

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NATO the UK are all war criminals. Russia and Zelensky had terms in March and Biden/UK/NATO said NO. Fight to the last Ukrainian.

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Poland is now talking of taking back their former parts of Ukraine that were give to Ukraine at the end of WW2.
Ukraine may no longer exist except as a small rump when this is over.

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At least according to CNN Generals and the Deep State agents for the MIC

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Russia has 30,000 Ukrainians surrounded at Bahkmut

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The Ukrainian Commander on the ground calls it a Colossal Disaster.
Zelensky has gone all in and committed his reserves. And called up 50,000 Ukrainian women because he has no longer suitable aged young males.

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There are another 250,000 Russian troops moving towards the front. And Russia is about to unleash, according to US Satellite Intel, a massive 300 missile attack on what is left of Ukranian power grid and gas grids.

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Russia will keep all the land they paid for in blood, they will take the whole coast line all the way to Odessa now and Transnistria.

Poland is now talking of taking back their former parts of Ukraine that were give to Ukraine at the end of WW2.

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Ok a side note, this Polish thing has been a Russian talking point since all the way back in May at least. I'm sure it's longer than that, but how many times is Russia gonna push that narrative when Poland literally has jack all to gain from it and has been among those helping Ukrainw the most.

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Oh Deary Me. US 4 star Gen Wesley Clark, one of the genius's who fought to replace the Taliban for 20 years in Afghanistan, just to hand it over to the Taliban, the former Commander in Chief of NATO has now admitted that Russia has trapped the Ukrainians. Russia has 30,000 Ukrainians surrounded at Bahkmut in a cauldron and is grinding up, over 1,000 artillery rounds per day is fired into the cauldron.

The Ukrainian Commander on the ground calls it a Colossal Disaster.
Zelensky has gone all in and committed his reserves. And called up 50,000 Ukrainian women because he has no longer suitable aged young males.

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As the Ukrainians have assets throughout the Russian security services

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No chance he travels to within HIMAR range

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Russia has 30,000 Ukrainians surrounded at Bahkmut in a cauldron and is grinding up, over 1,000 artillery rounds per day is fired into the cauldron.

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