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1
Posted on 11/22/22 at 5:15 pm to CitizenK
Rumors of Ukraine at Tokmak halfway to Melitopol.
Posted on 11/22/22 at 5:28 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Rumors of Ukraine at Tokmak halfway to Melitopol.
From a meta-view, I think it is shelling/missiles right now but almost everyone including Rybar seems to think "they comin'".
Posted on 11/22/22 at 5:43 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
Rumors of Ukraine at Tokmak halfway to Melitopol.
From a meta-view, I think it is shelling/missiles right now but almost everyone including Rybar seems to think "they comin'".
All the major road and rail connections between Russia and Crimea converge in Melitopol. That makes Melitopol is the key to Russia's control of the land bridge to Crimea. Plus Melitopol is key to controlling the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts. Tokmak would be the place to strike since it offers a clear path of advance towards Melitopol if the Ukrainians can cross the Tokomach River which does not appear to be much of a river. That is the logical place for the Ukrainians to attack and the logical place for the Russians to fortify. Unless the Ukies have found a weak spot to exploit I doubt they attack there since they have usually try to avoid hitting the logical places where Russia has fortified.
Posted on 11/22/22 at 5:50 pm to Obtuse1
I value this thread because of the logistical information that is parsed here because it is valuable for my limited understanding of the mechanics of strategic warfare.
However, I have found an amazing youtube channel which is just one geeky Russian guy interviewing people on the street and in the countryside all over Russia. It is a great tool in understanding that the Russian people are very similar to the North Korean people. They have long been subject to disinformation, silence through intimidation and death, and the struggle to disseminate truth through new methods of communication.
I have been watching his videos for some months now and I feel for the people, even the ones who hate America... they just don't know any better or have refused to see the benefit of doing so. It's sad that they have allowed a madman wholesale power of life and death over the people. Fortunately we as a nation and NATO are doing the right thing. It's a shame and a crime Putin chose to invade.
Anyway here's a link to his videos. I'm just linking one I saw yesterday but there are loads more to see.
1420 on YouTube
Also if you want the same thing with a China/Asia centric population, here is a line to AsiaBoss, who does much less the same thing. Invaluable insight to many different schools of thought and allegiance from the person on the street. A little more "commercial" and produced than its Russian counterpart-but still informative.
AsiaBoss- YouTube
No alterior motive here except to supplement the fantastic military information with the human story behind it.
However, I have found an amazing youtube channel which is just one geeky Russian guy interviewing people on the street and in the countryside all over Russia. It is a great tool in understanding that the Russian people are very similar to the North Korean people. They have long been subject to disinformation, silence through intimidation and death, and the struggle to disseminate truth through new methods of communication.
I have been watching his videos for some months now and I feel for the people, even the ones who hate America... they just don't know any better or have refused to see the benefit of doing so. It's sad that they have allowed a madman wholesale power of life and death over the people. Fortunately we as a nation and NATO are doing the right thing. It's a shame and a crime Putin chose to invade.
Anyway here's a link to his videos. I'm just linking one I saw yesterday but there are loads more to see.
1420 on YouTube
Also if you want the same thing with a China/Asia centric population, here is a line to AsiaBoss, who does much less the same thing. Invaluable insight to many different schools of thought and allegiance from the person on the street. A little more "commercial" and produced than its Russian counterpart-but still informative.
AsiaBoss- YouTube
No alterior motive here except to supplement the fantastic military information with the human story behind it.
Posted on 11/22/22 at 5:51 pm to WeeWee
Isn’t Russia still in control of Zaporizha or whatever it’s called?
Posted on 11/22/22 at 5:52 pm to SpeedyNacho
quote:
The whole Ukrainian war is a smoke screen!
It did not feel like a smokescreen when I went to Kharkiv back in the summer.
quote:
China Iran and the ruskies are throwing nothing but Cold War tech, and sick and elderly.
Most of the Russian POWs that I saw in Kharkiv were young boys.
quote:
They’re gathering information on our tactics and depleting our own stockpiles
1. We are gathering information on their tactics too.
2. Russia has depleted its stockpiles way more than we have depleted ours. We still have thousands of Abrams tanks in storage but Russia has had to start pulling T62s and T55s out of storage.
quote:
The whole Ukrainian war is a smoke screen! China Iran and the ruskies are throwing nothing but Cold War tech, and sick and elderly. They’re gathering information on our tactics and depleting our own stockpiles and waiting for the real attacks
The situation on the ground in March.
The situation on the ground in November.
The real attacks were stopped back in March baw.
Posted on 11/22/22 at 6:05 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Isn’t Russia still in control of Zaporizha or whatever it’s called?
They control most of the Zap oblast and they still control the Zap nuclear power plant. However, Zap city with its big and road and rail bridge across the Dnieper have remained in Ukrainian control throughout the war. Also the Russians have only hit the bridge across the Dnieper once during this entire war and that was back in April and the bridge was repaired within a week.
I do not know if a bridge built by the USSR can be called sexy but I bet the supply trains rolling across it carrying MREs, ammo, and dry socks are sexy to the Ukrainians.
Posted on 11/22/22 at 6:39 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
From a meta-view, I think it is shelling/missiles right now but almost everyone including Rybar seems to think "they comin'".
It could well be SOF units roaming around the area, as well.
Posted on 11/22/22 at 6:45 pm to BigAppleTiger
quote:
However, I have found an amazing youtube channel which is just one geeky Russian guy interviewing people on the street and in the countryside all over Russia. It is a great tool in understanding that the Russian people are very similar to the North Korean people. They have long been subject to disinformation, silence through intimidation and death, and the struggle to disseminate truth through new methods of communication.
Correct, though recently some with access to any info not on state run media seem to be making an about face with interviewees
This post was edited on 11/22/22 at 7:20 pm
Posted on 11/22/22 at 8:31 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Most of the Russian POWs that I saw in Kharkiv were young boys.
From the areas occupied since 2014 or elsewhere? From Wagner or Russian Army?
Posted on 11/22/22 at 8:59 pm to lsu777
quote:
crazy fricks, we really are going to end up having to destroy them
The Ukrainians seem to be doing it for us very effectively.
Posted on 11/22/22 at 9:37 pm to CitizenK
ISW Update
quote:
The Kremlin appears to be setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, likely in an effort to regain public support for the war in Ukraine. Kremlin propagandists have begun hypothesizing that Ukrainian forces seek to invade Belgorod Oblast, and other Russian sources noted that Russian forces need to regain control over Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, to minimize the threat of a Ukrainian attack.
quote:
Russian claims of an imminent Ukrainian attack on Belgorod Oblast are absurd and only aim to scare the general public to support the war. Ukraine has no strategic interest in invading Russia and no ability to do so at such a scale
quote:
These ridiculous speculations about a fantastical Ukrainian invasion of Russia may also be part of the Kremlin’s effort to acknowledge and appease the Russian pro-war nationalist community.
quote:
Prigozhin is also using fearmongering about a fictitious Ukrainian invasion threat and the construction of the Zasechnaya Line to solidify his power in Russian border regions and Russia
quote:
The Russian military has significantly depleted its arsenal of high-precision missiles but will likely still be able to attack Ukrainian critical infrastructure at scale in the near term.
quote:
Ukrenergo head Volodymyr Kudrytsky stated on November 22 that Russian forces have damaged almost all thermal power plants, large hydropower plants, and Ukrenergo hub substations in Ukraine
quote:
The Russian military is likely experiencing problems in replenishing its arsenal of high-precision weapons systems
quote:
Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko has traveled to Iran to discuss economic cooperation and possibly security ties
quote:
Russian military movements suggest that Russian forces are likely reinforcing positions in eastern Zaporizhia and western Donetsk oblasts.
quote:
Key Takeaways
The Kremlin may be setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in Belgorod Oblast.
The Russian military has significantly depleted its arsenal of high-precision missiles but will likely still threaten Ukrainian infrastructure.
The Russian military is likely struggling to replenish its arsenal of high-precision weapons systems.
The Belarusian prime minister traveled to Iran to discuss economic cooperation and possible security ties.
Russian military movements suggest that Russian forces are likely reinforcing positions in eastern Zaporizhia and western Donetsk oblasts.
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Crimean occupation officials demonstrated heightened unease—likely over Ukrainian strikes on Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the peninsula and ongoing military operations on the Kinburn Spit.
The Kremlin continues to deflect concerns about mobilization onto the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
Russian sources continue to tout the forced adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families.
quote:
The Kremlin continues to deflect mobilization concerns onto the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on November 22 that the Kremlin is not discussing the possibility of a new mobilization wave but noted that he is “unable to speak for the Russian MoD.”[63] Lower-end Kremlin officials are also beginning to address the Kremlin regarding the duration of mobilization and its problems. A member of the Yabloko party of the Karelia legislative assembly, Emilia Slabunova, recorded a video appeal with another parliamentarian demanding that Russian President Vladimir Putin issue a decree legally announcing the end of mobilization.[64] Yabloko members added that Russian officials are continuing to mobilize men regardless of Putin’s, the Russian MoD’s, and Peskov’s announcements regarding the end of mobilization. Putin is unlikely to issue such an order, however, since ending the mobilization period officially would require demobilizing servicemen in accordance with the Russian mobilization law.[65] Putin is also unlikely to sign a decree that specifies that Russia will not mobilize additional men while maintaining already-mobilized men on the frontlines because the Kremlin is interested in continuing its crypto mobilization campaign.
Posted on 11/22/22 at 9:38 pm to Mr Happy
Ya damn skippy
Posted on 11/22/22 at 9:51 pm to CitizenK
quote:
From the areas occupied since 2014 or elsewhere? From Wagner or Russian Army?
Most of the wounded POWs in the Kharkiv region last summer were Russian army. From what the Ukrainians told me, Wagner (before it filled its ranks with untrained convicts) either took their wounded with them withdrew or the wounded went out in a blaze of glory. Most of the time if a Wagner mercenary got captured and was wounded it was wounds so severe that they only thing that could be done was palliative care. The separatist troops were stabilized and sent to pow camps in western Ukraine to keep them from trying to escape because the western Ukrainian population doesn’t have any sympathy or desire to help the separatist. Plus the separatist are so indoctrinated that they think everyone in western Ukraine are NAZIs and wants to send them to gas chambers so they are not likely to try to escape.
Posted on 11/23/22 at 7:05 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 23 November 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Since September, Russia has likely launched hundreds of Iranian-manufactured uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) against Ukraine. These have been a mixture of one way attack (OWA) UAVs and more traditional reusable armed systems.
Russia has largely used these weapons against tactical military targets and the Ukrainian electricity grid. However, recently Russian commanders likely also wanted Iranian-sourced UAVs to prioritise medical facilities as targets of opportunity, and strike them with guided munitions if identified.
Russia likely conceived of the UAV campaign to make up for its severe shortage of cruise missiles, but the approach has had limited success. Most UAVs launched have been neutralised.
No OWA UAVS strikes have been publicly reported since around 17 November 2022. Russia has likely very nearly exhausted its current stock, but will probably seek resupply. Russia can probably procure UAVs from overseas more rapidly than it can manufacture new cruise missiles domestically.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 23 November 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Since September, Russia has likely launched hundreds of Iranian-manufactured uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) against Ukraine. These have been a mixture of one way attack (OWA) UAVs and more traditional reusable armed systems.
Russia has largely used these weapons against tactical military targets and the Ukrainian electricity grid. However, recently Russian commanders likely also wanted Iranian-sourced UAVs to prioritise medical facilities as targets of opportunity, and strike them with guided munitions if identified.
Russia likely conceived of the UAV campaign to make up for its severe shortage of cruise missiles, but the approach has had limited success. Most UAVs launched have been neutralised.
No OWA UAVS strikes have been publicly reported since around 17 November 2022. Russia has likely very nearly exhausted its current stock, but will probably seek resupply. Russia can probably procure UAVs from overseas more rapidly than it can manufacture new cruise missiles domestically.
Posted on 11/23/22 at 9:24 am to Obtuse1
New toys for the Ukrainian military:
LINK
My understanding is that the primary function of these is for search-and-rescue operations, but they can also carry anti-sub torpedoes.
From Oryx
Finally, the White House just announced another $400 million in drawdown authority to the DoD, but no word yet on what's included this time. LINK
quote:
The UK is to send three Westland Sea King anti-submarine warfare helicopters to Ukraine.
The first airframe is already in the country, two more will follow shortly.
LINK
My understanding is that the primary function of these is for search-and-rescue operations, but they can also carry anti-sub torpedoes.
From Oryx
quote:
German Military Aid To #Ukraine
Moved from PLEDGED to DELIVERED:
- 14 Border Protection Vehicles
- 2 Oshkosh M1070 Tank Transporters
quote:
Newly PLEDGED equipment:
- 14 Remotely-Controlled Tracked Vehicles For Support Tasks
Finally, the White House just announced another $400 million in drawdown authority to the DoD, but no word yet on what's included this time. LINK
Posted on 11/23/22 at 10:38 am to GOP_Tiger
Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announces the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance valued at up to $400 million to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs. This authorization is the Biden Administration's twenty-sixth drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021.
Capabilities in this package include:
• Additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS);
• 150 heavy machine guns with thermal imagery sights to counter Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS);
• Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• 200 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds;
• 10,000 120mm mortar rounds;
• High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs);
• 150 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
• Over 100 light tactical vehicles;
• Over 20,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition;
• Over 200 generators;
• Spare parts for 105mm Howitzers and other equipment.
Capabilities in this package include:
• Additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS);
• 150 heavy machine guns with thermal imagery sights to counter Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS);
• Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• 200 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds;
• 10,000 120mm mortar rounds;
• High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs);
• 150 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
• Over 100 light tactical vehicles;
• Over 20,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition;
• Over 200 generators;
• Spare parts for 105mm Howitzers and other equipment.
Posted on 11/23/22 at 12:24 pm to cypher
Russia launches 70 missiles on Ukraine on 23 November, Ukraine’s air defence shots down 51
Ukraine’s anti-aircraft defence systems have shot down 51 out of 70 missiles and five kamikaze drones that Russia launched on Ukraine on 23 November.
Source: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Telegram
Quote: "On 23 November, the terrorist state once again carried out a massive missile attack on critical infrastructure facilities in Ukraine using strategic aircraft and vessels of the Black Sea Fleet.
10 Tu-95MS missile-carrying jets launched missiles from the Volgodonsk district of Rostov Oblast [Russia] and the Caspian Sea, as well as from two small missile-carrying boats from the Black Sea."
Details: The Air Force reported that Russia has launched around 70 Kh-101/Kh-555 and Kalibr cruise missiles over Ukraine.
Ukraine’s anti-aircraft defence systems and forces destroyed 51 Russian missiles.
Ukraine’s defence forces also destroyed five Russian Lancet UAVs in the south of Ukraine.
Ukrainska Pravda
Ukraine’s anti-aircraft defence systems have shot down 51 out of 70 missiles and five kamikaze drones that Russia launched on Ukraine on 23 November.
Source: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Telegram
Quote: "On 23 November, the terrorist state once again carried out a massive missile attack on critical infrastructure facilities in Ukraine using strategic aircraft and vessels of the Black Sea Fleet.
10 Tu-95MS missile-carrying jets launched missiles from the Volgodonsk district of Rostov Oblast [Russia] and the Caspian Sea, as well as from two small missile-carrying boats from the Black Sea."
Details: The Air Force reported that Russia has launched around 70 Kh-101/Kh-555 and Kalibr cruise missiles over Ukraine.
Ukraine’s anti-aircraft defence systems and forces destroyed 51 Russian missiles.
Ukraine’s defence forces also destroyed five Russian Lancet UAVs in the south of Ukraine.
Ukrainska Pravda
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