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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 11/10/22 at 9:11 pm to
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45567 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 9:11 pm to
quote:

If Ukraine regular artillery is in range of those crossings about 20k Russians are in for a looooong night.


In the northern axis of the Kherson front, the current front line is reported to be around Novoberyslav which is about 15 km from the Nova Kakhovka dam and about 20 km from the crossings south of the dam. Even if the Ukrainians keep their artillery 5 km behind the front then the crossings are within range of Ukrainian artillery coming from the northern axis. On southern axis of the Kherson front, the Ukrainians are in the suburb of Chornobaikva which is 15 km from the crossings near the Antovskiy bridge. There are starting to be rumors on twatter that the retreat has turned into a rout and I would imagine the Ukrainian artillery has a lot to do with that. The Russians only real hope of getting their 30,000 troops out of Kherson is if they can produce enough smokescreens to blind the artillery spotting drones the Ukrainians are using and hoping that the Ukrainians can't hit moving targets underneath those smokescreens.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20974 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 9:15 pm to
quote:

They could still occupy the entire west bank of the river by December though.


There's the fog of war and all that, but I think that Ukraine will have the entire west bank by Monday at the latest.

Look at the changes in just the last 24 hours: LINK

There are lots of reports that all Russian radars and air defense systems have either been moved to the other side of the river or abandoned, so Ukrainian aircraft and Bayraktar drones are raining death on the fleeing Russians, and lots of other UAVs are spotting for artillery.

Again, Russia had lots of time to plan for this, but they plan poorly, and they implement plans much, much worse. Russia made the decision to save some of their best VDV units and rotated them out last week, and recently mobilized men don't have the training or discipline to hold their positions.
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8619 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 9:22 pm to
Adequate? The job those Ukrainian pilots have done being so outnumbered as well as flying older equipment than the Russians is an absolute miracle that is the single most amazing thing of this entire war. For all intents and purposes the Ukrainian Air Force should have been destroyed in the first weeks of the war just being outnumbered conservatively 10:1 in the air and they are still coming up to meet them 8 months into the war. Those guys have to be mentally and physically exhausted basically having to do like the Luftwaffe had to in WW2 flying their pilots “until they die”. Flying several sorties absolutely drains you and they are doing it daily in combat conditions flying on the deck.
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8619 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 9:26 pm to
While they have been squabbling about sending f-16s or not I’ve been banging the drum for Super Cobras to be sent. They have been recently retired and are still in working condition so they wouldn’t take any huge maintenance to get them ready to fly again and they could actually make a difference. I don’t understand why they haven’t sent them at least a couple squadrons worth.
Posted by MattA
Member since Nov 2019
2020 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 9:31 pm to
quote:

There are starting to be rumors on twatter that the retreat has turned into a rout and I would imagine the Ukrainian artillery has a lot to do with that


100 percent. Highway/River of death 2.0. I have no doubt the Ukrainians are getting real time info and have disbursed their arty accordingly. Could be a slaughter in real time.
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30520 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 9:43 pm to
You have posted that gif over 120 times in the last 30 minutes, you sho is skeert.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105316 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 9:46 pm to
Posted by mjthe
Virginia
Member since Oct 2020
6870 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 9:46 pm to
He got popped
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15762 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 10:03 pm to
quote:


You have posted that gif over 120 times in the last 30 minutes, you sho is skeert.


Moonshine hits Snuffy Smith harder than you realize
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8170 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 10:30 pm to
One thing learned from the previous two Ukrainian offensive breakthroughs, is that Ukrainian PsyOps gets very active with stories of Russian troops fleeing/surrendering/routing/Etc.

While I want such stories to be true, I will remain skeptical until I start seeing some media.
This post was edited on 11/10/22 at 10:32 pm
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105316 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 10:45 pm to
Unconfirmed reports from Russian sources that Ukraine has crossed the Dnipro. Nearly unbelievable if true.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8170 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 10:56 pm to
A thread from Rybar on the situation in Kherson
https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1590866689369190400

quote:

With an info-vacuum on both sides about the withdrawal of Russian troops to the left bank, reports have spread about a tragic situation at the crossings, and AFU entry into Kherson.

Discarding rumors, broken telephones, etc., we reliably know the following:
The withdrawal of troops to the left bank of the Dnieper is ongoing. In the past few days, several formations with all their regular equipment already withdrew in full strength.

There aren't 20,000 servicemen piled up in Kherson at the crossings. The actual number of troops remaining in the city is much smaller.

Before retreating, Russian Armed Forces mined positions and some facilities to slow the enemy advance. This paid off: in empty Oleksandrivka alone, the AFU lost three armored vehicles and a platoon of fighters wounded and killed.

Reports of Ukrainian units approaching Kherson or Nova Kakhovka are also unreliable. In particular, in the Beryslav sector, even at night, the AFU were only in the vicinity of Milove and Novokairy.

Ukrainian units are attempting to strike crossings near Kherson and Nova Kakhovka, firing whole packages of HIMARS at them. Russian air defenses are operational, and Russian Armed Forces rocket artillery is also hitting AFU positions on the right bank of the Dnieper River.

Contrary to the information that appeared online, the Antonov bridge in Kherson was not destroyed. However, its destruction after the withdrawal of troops is completed appears logical.

The full picture of what is happening will appear only by the morning. And until then, it makes no sense to spread information of highly dubious substance.
This post was edited on 11/10/22 at 10:57 pm
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8170 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 11:02 pm to
Video at link
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1590827196079550464
quote:

This is the angriest Solovyev I've ever seen.

Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8170 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 11:05 pm to
Interesting comment at the end of this, considering your post

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1590835709610713088
quote:

Pro-Russian Dimitriyev says that according to his sources, there's an actual panic among Russian forces in Kherson.



https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1590835711733026816
quote:

He adds he has this information from actual people, not channels. He also mentions anarchy on the "left bank" though he could mean "right" bank and just misspelled it.


This post was edited on 11/10/22 at 11:07 pm
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8170 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 11:09 pm to
Animated map from Warmapper

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1590859897469833216
quote:

A short timelapse of the progress by ???? towards Kherson over the past few days.

The changes only show the verified advances ???? has made.

Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8170 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 11:21 pm to
2 things about this video, 1) it actually shows the Russian airforce providing ground support, and 2) take a moment to look at the hellscape of that former city. It's apocalyptic.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1590837354159550464
quote:

Another video of Russian Su-25 attack aircraft firing rockets at Ukrainian positions in Marinka

Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
26257 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 11:21 pm to
quote:

Pro-Russian Dimitriyev says that according to his sources, there's an actual panic among Russian forces in Kherson.




Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 11:23 pm to
ISW Update

quote:

Ukrainian forces steadily advanced in Kherson Oblast on November 10 as Russian forces conduct a withdrawal to the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River


quote:

ISW does not assess the fighting in Ukraine will halt or enter a stalemate due to winter weather, despite faulty Western assumptions


quote:

Ukraine holds the initiative and is in the process of securing a major victory in Kherson. A ceasefire would provide the Kremlin with the pause it desperately needs to reconstitute Russian forces


quote:

Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin is increasingly wrestling with St. Petersburg officials over expanding Wagner Group operations in the city.


quote:

Ukrainian Air Force Command spokesperson Yuriy Ignat stated that Russian forces will likely further reduce the pace of their campaign to strike Ukrainian critical infrastructure, likely enabling Ukrainian authorities to address most of the damage to infrastructure


quote:

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces steadily advanced in Kherson Oblast on November 10 as Russian forces conduct a withdrawal to the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.

The Russian withdrawal will take some time to complete, and fighting will continue throughout Kherson Oblast as Ukrainian troops advance and come up against pre-prepared Russian defensive lines, especially around Kherson City.

ISW does not assess the fighting in Ukraine will halt or enter a stalemate due to winter weather, despite faulty Western assumptions.

Ukraine holds the initiative and is in the process of securing a major victory in Kherson. A ceasefire would provide the Kremlin with the pause it desperately needs to reconstitute Russian forces.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin is increasingly wrestling with St. Petersburg officials over expanding Wagner Group recruitment in the city.

Ukrainian Air Force Command spokesperson Yuriy Ignat stated that Russian force will likely slow the pace of their campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure.

Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and in western Donetsk.

Russian forces began constructing second line fortifications in Crimea and southern Ukraine.

Russian citizens continue to oppose Russia’s war in Ukraine through protest, social media dissent, and desertions from the military.

Russian mobilization efforts are channeling personnel to the Wagner group.

Russian occupation officials are continuing efforts to erode Ukrainian national identity while mobilizing residents in Russian-occupied territories.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105316 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 11:44 pm to
I'm really struggling to find any semblance of Russian strategy since about the end of March.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8170 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 11:46 pm to
Video at link
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1590941097571688448
quote:

Footage has been circling telegram showing the Russians dropping the Kherson rail bridge over the Dnipro.
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