re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

quote:

---

So far, Ukraine has been able to mostly avoid fortified positions, choosing to cut off GLOCs instead. So I'm thinking maybe start somewhere around Zap and push southeast to the Azov.

---

All of the Russian-controlled South is struggling badly with supply, because of the Kerch Bridge attack. The only way to get stuff into the region is by truck through Mariupol, or across the Kerch Strait rail ferry and then by rail.

That's why Russia just threw away some 1000 lives last week trying to take Pavlivka: they are trying to open up room for the railroad from Donetsk, because they can't supply these troops.

The supply problem was exacerbated in Kherson, as that was even further for trucks to travel (and they don't have enough trucks), and the river pontoon ferry system was inefficient and prone to attack.

So, they decided to leave Kherson, but they still can't supply any of the South properly and well. And now, Ukrainian HIMARS rockets will have even more of the South in range.

So, yeah, it absolutely makes sense to press the attack towards Melitopol, but I'm not sure if Ukraine has the logistics and firepower to do it immediately.

If it has been posted I missed this parody of Solovyov on Halloween. This one had me

Twitter

Recent possible Russian gains from a pro Russian prospective

quote:

---

Hi Everyone,

I wanted to do a thread about the Battle of Pavlovka both expanding on and continuing from my previous thread on the subject.

So first off an admission. I got the date the attack started wrong. It started on 29 October. Now onto the battle. Pavlovka is located southwest of Donetsk to the south of a town called Ugledar. To take Ugledar you need to take Pavlovka.

Ugledar is made up of high rise buildings. From which artillery observers can look into Mariinka, Donetsk and the areas around it. To stop the shelling of Donetsk you cannot just take Avdeevka, you have to take Ugledar. To take Ugledar, you have to take Pavlovka

Since September the Russians had been attriting the UKR in and around Ugledar but the UKR kept rotating units in so the Russians killed a lot of UKR but were unable to see a chance to attack. However the success of LNR and Wagner troops by Artemovsk changed the dynamic

The VSU withdrew their 53rd bde to counterattack around Artemovsk, leaving the 72nd bde to hold the area. With the arrival of replacements and mobilized reservists Russian strength had increased. They saw an opportunity and decided to attack

The main assault force was made up of the Russian Naval Infantry - the 155th Brigade was apparently the spearhead, and was supported by the 40th Naval Infantry brigade along with the DNR Kaskad unit.

This force was not all aimed at the village but at fixing UKR forces elsewhere and of course destroying any VSU reinforcements and preventing counterattacks against the assault force's flanks. These units all had extensive experience in the Russian SMO.
On 29 October the Russians launched a coordinated barrage of artillery on the UKR first line with air strikes working on UKR rear positions. The Russians used TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS artillery and precision Krasnopol 152mm ammunition to annihilate the first UKR defensive line


Those UKR who were not killed, fell back in shock. Apparently up to 100 were killed in the bombardment alone. Despite the mud the Russians were able to advance several kilometers across open fields and by the end of the day had secured 1/3 of Pavlovka

The Russians pushed out the shocked defenders on the 30th to the northern outskirts. Concurrently they began suppressing UKR reinforcements to prevent any quick counterthrusts from the VSU 72nd Bde as shown by way of example in this video:

Simultaneously the Russians pushed on UKR positions east of Pavlovka and took some hills overlooking Ugledar, this would serve them in good stead as on 31 October the VSU committed their reserve the 79th Bde and counterattacked, driving the Russians back in Pavlovka

By 1 November the Russians had been reduced to positional fighting in the village as streets went back and forth and in close quarter fighting between the VSU and the Russian Naval Infantry - footage of which was published recently by the Russian MoD

The Russians had qualitative superiority in the level of training but the UKR were well armed and had the potential to do a lot of damage. So the Russians got to work suppressing the UKR rear echelon both reserves and more important combat support arms

VSU artillery is very good but the Russians made use of long range fires and importantly suicide drones to destroy UKR artillery pieces in pinpoint strikes. They also targeted UKR units resting or moving in to reinforce. A compilation of this can be seen here

As you can see this is a mix of destroyed UKR equipment - tanks, APCs, and most importantly artillery. Without artillery support, the UKR could not suppress Russian supply and support lines leading from their main lines to Pavlovka

On 5 and 6 November though in the midst of this a controversy broke. Alexander Khodakovsky a senior DNR commander first gave hints that the operation around Pavlovka was a slog - and it was - and ill conceived and excessively costly

Then a letter appeared ostensibly from Russian Naval infantrymen fighting in Pavlovka claiming there had been no proper planning of the assault, artillery support, that the 155th bde had suffered 300 casualties and lost half its vehicles

Ostensibly, this had been done because the commander of the Eastern Military District, Rustem Muradov had been promised a medal by the Russian Chief of the General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, a medal if he liberated Pavlovka

The writers of the letter appealed to Russian social media and the governor of Primorsky Krai - a man who had twice already visited Siberian units in UKR - for help. I covered this here as to why I did not believe it:

The Governor took it seriously, as did the RU MoD. The Governor asked his contacts and they admitted there were losses - dead and wounded. But that the situation was NOT as the letter described. The Governor believed them and said so on 7 November:

That same day RU MoD put out a statement saying 1% of the attacking force were KIA and 7% WIA - but some of those had already returned to action. Furthermore, the Naval Infantry and DNR men fighting and near Pavlovka were insulted by the insinuation that they were losing

They published videos assuring everyone they were alright and that for any losses they suffered the VSU had many times more - and importantly from an info management PoV they and RU MoD published a lot more footage of their work

The work indeed continued. VSU units around Pavlovka and within Pavlovka were destroyed by Russian precision strikes as can be seen by way of example here where a UKR Maxxpro MRAP is destroyed

Further UKR units within Pavlovka itself were exposed to artillery fire and drone strikes while the Russians slowly but surely pushed forward. The proof of heavy losses was provided by both UKR soldiers broadcasting distressed video messages saying they were about to die:

This took its toll. The losses of artillery, vehicles and men was much greater than those of the Russians. The Russians had won by destroying UKR combat power and denying them the ability to rotate and replenish, and the UKR cracked

The UKR were pushed out of the village entirely on 10 November 2022. The Russians raised the flag in the village. They had won.

---

LINK

quote:

---

DJFord

---

Weird you are admitting you are an alter

If anyone should be banned its you

War_Mapper finally has something to do again

quote:

---

SDVTiger

---

Putin, Trump, Alex Jones… so many losers. And in one week!

Better get on that Desantis/McConnell:Zelensky train or you’ll be left with Dr. Oz!

Now get! Drive by boy

From the Washington Post:

quote:

---

U.S. Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Tuesday night that 20,000 to 30,000 Russian forces remained on the western bank of the river and that it would take time for them to withdraw. But he, too, saw “initial indicators” that the retreat was underway, he said.

“This won’t take them a day or two,” Milley said, speaking at an event at the Economic Club of New York. “This is going to take them days and maybe even weeks to pull those forces south of that river.”

---

I previously saw estimates that Russia had as many as 40,000-50,000 troops on that side of the river. But, of course, Russia has been gradually withdrawing for the last two weeks.

So, it makes sense that there would be >20,000 troops still there on Tuesday. I saw a report that Russia got some 200-300 armored vehicles over the dam yesterday, and that they had something like eight ferries of various types working at the city. But that doesn't get out 20k troops.

If only they had an adequate air force to interdict the retreating troops.

quote:

---

You’d think they could HIMARS the shite out the ferries and crossing areas while trying to squeeze the guys left on the west end of the bank but I just don’t think the reward of getting a couple hundred captured armored vehicles or captured conscripts is really worth the risk of the losses they could take from their own forces.

---

1. Why waste HIMARS on something that is within conventional artillery range?

2. According to my sauce(s), the Russians do not have much in terms of supplies on the western bank. The Russians soldiers they are capturing are only being issued 2 magazines worth of ammo per day and 1 MRE every other day.

3. My sauce(s) told me that the Ukrainians are making decent progress in pursuit of the Russians. Their advance is being slowed by the mud and the fact that every road is a minefield and every bridge is either blocked with broken equipment that is booby trapped or the blown.

4. Too bad the Biden administration did not listen to the Ukrainians when they requested the recently retired Marine SuperCobra helicopters back in the early summer. Just imagine what they could do with another 20 or 30 attack helicopters to augment their Mi8s and Mi24s.

quote:

---

Ukrainian forces have entered Kherson liberation is close. Going to watch closely to see if the Russians blow the Kakhovka damn and flood the area to cover their retreat.

---

That would be the most short sighted thing Russia could do. Blowing the dam would drain the 3.5 km reservoir which is currently too wide and deep for Ukraine to attempt to cross. It would also cause the North Crimean Canal to go dry and deprive Crimea of its main water supply for many years to come.


Well now that I think about it Russia might just be stupid enough to do it.