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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 11/2/22 at 6:24 am to
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 11/2/22 at 6:24 am to
Grain corridor is back open

Can't wait for OML to come back and admit he was wrong about major escalations in October and food shortages since we are all just genocidal warmongers

quote:

Turkish President #Erdogan said that after negotiations with #Shoigu, an agreement was reached on a "grain corridor" in the Black Sea.

#Russia has received written guarantees from #Ukraine not to use the "grain corridor", the Russian Defense Ministry declared.


LINK

Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 11/2/22 at 6:31 am to
Turkey looking pretty strong here through this war.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 11/2/22 at 6:34 am to
War Translated update

Slightly biased Ukraine source, but usually has some good posts

quote:

Battlefield update:
No significant changes, small tactical actions. Both sides are fighting for gray zone.

Close-up battles near Bakhmut, Bilohorivka, Avdiivka, Vuhledar, partially in Kherson district. The rest are artillery duels – who got more successful with drone, aiming, etc. Every day 3-4 Russian command posts destroyed.

There is no dynamics, because neither side has resources – Russia managed to slow down Ukraine with inflow of draftees, but Ukraine doesn’t have enough weapons for 850km active front line.
Sides will battle at specific locations, losses will accumulate until one side has sudden advantage.

Russian troops:
In theater (including Belgorod, Belarus, Crimea) there are total 170-190k Russian solders, under 100k mobilized troops. Front line could have 12-20k of them, some 30k in second echelon, some in route, some in rotation. They are not capable of offensive.

The remaining 200k mobilized are sitting in training camps without clothing, equipment and commanders. There is even lack of food – getting them trained to proper level is very vague idea.

?? Vuhledar:
Vuhledar and Volnovakha are key to holding south.

If Ukraine breaks through, and interrupts rail supplies, it’s a catastrophe for all southern front. Russia has gathered only 5-7 BTGs for key objective.

?? Grain deal:
Grain ships will use Turkey flag, and be protected by Turkish fleet.

Putin had conversation with Erdogan, and as condition for continuing deal asked for Ukraine to guarantee safety of Russian Black sea fleet
Erdogan is not afraid of Russia, there have already been direct clashes between Turkey and Russia in Libya, 2019.

U.N. vote on Israel nuclear weapons:
There is significant public discussion, some justifications, manipulations, but in short – Ukraine should not have voted against Israel. Ukraine still has perspective of becoming trusted partner of Israel, if it supports Israel in future.

?? Prigozhin:
Prigozhin praised Zelensky as strong and confident leader. This does not match his rank somewhere on level 2. There exist many armies: Federal army, Kadyrov’s army, Prigozhin’s army, Rosguardia, LPR, DPR armies – each getting political wing.

In the end there will be many countries.
Prigozhin revealed that children of elites are spared from mobilization. In Russia model Tsar is fighting alongside people against noblemen. This means, Prigozhin is aiming for role of Tsar.

Iran missiles:
Those will be used from afar, they have range of 800km. Quantity is expected to be low, due to complicated manufacturing. It’s unpleasant, but won’t change a lot for average Ukrainian citizen – there are already missile strikes.

E.U. agreed to compensate electric power, while Ukrainian infrastructure is damaged.
Iran under sanctions is making better missiles and drones, than Russia did without sanctions.

End of thread.


Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 11/2/22 at 6:43 am to
quote:

According to a poll by Cemas, about 18 percent of #Germans agreed with the statement that #Putin "is fighting against the world elite, which is pulling strings behind the scenes.". #Russian propaganda myths tend to be believed more in eastern #Germany.


LINK

quote:

The US Government has allocated $55 million from the funds of the Agency for International Development to repair and support heating infrastructure in 19 regions of Ukraine, reports the US State Department spokesman Ned Price

LINK

quote:

Mini-thread on the Admiral Grigorovich class frigate that was potentially damaged on 29 October.

A video showing the drone attack on the port of Sevastopl last Saturday appeared to show the moments just before a drone hit an Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate. Following this video, the fate of the frigate was widely speculated.

Satellite images taken yesterday at 05:35 and 11:06 UTC show the two Admiral Grigorovich class frigates currently deployed in the Black Sea, moored in port.


LINK
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5659 posts
Posted on 11/2/22 at 7:07 am to
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 02 November 2022

The owner of the Russian Wagner Group private military company, Yevgeny Prigozhin, stated on 23 October that Wagner forces were making advances of 100-200m per day, which he claimed was 'normal in modern warfare'.

According to their military doctrine, Russian forces plan to advance 30km or more per day in most conditions. In February, Russian forces planned to make a 1000km advance through Ukraine within a month. In September, Ukrainian forces achieved advances of over 20km per day.

In the last two months, Prigozhin has abandoned any pretence that he is not associated with Wagner and has been more explicit in his public statements. He is likely trying to burnish his credibility within the stressed Russian national security system.
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 11/2/22 at 7:32 am to
quote:

According to a poll by Cemas, about 18 percent of #Germans agreed with the statement that #Putin "is fighting against the world elite, which is pulling strings behind the scenes.". #Russian propaganda myths tend to be believed more in eastern #Germany.


Legitimately wonder what the number is here that believes that’s what Putin is doing
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15772 posts
Posted on 11/2/22 at 7:39 am to
quote:

In the last two months, Prigozhin has abandoned any pretence that he is not associated with Wagner and has been more explicit in his public statements. He is likely trying to burnish his credibility within the stressed Russian national security system.


Losing thousands trying to take Bakhmut for months and not succeeding is winning credibility?
Posted by Highthoughts
Member since Sep 2022
313 posts
Posted on 11/2/22 at 7:49 am to
80% of whatever the “unique visitors” count is to the poliboard.
Posted by SlimTigerSlap
Member since Apr 2022
4313 posts
Posted on 11/2/22 at 7:57 am to
quote:

The spending might have stayed flat jut Obama gave Ukraine humvees with flat tires and engines that wouldn’t crank. Trump gave them Javelins. You tell me which is more aid?

Per the horses' mouths, sanctions against Russia did a helluva lot more to stop their ambition than did a couple javelins sold to Ukraine.

Per the horses' mouths, their country saw growth in those four years and are anticipating a reset in the coming US elections.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45582 posts
Posted on 11/2/22 at 8:38 am to
quote:

Obama being a beta on the international stage is what got us here


So Trump sucking Putin nutsack helped?


Please provide an example of Trump sucking Putin's nut sack.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20975 posts
Posted on 11/2/22 at 9:02 am to
CNN:

quote:

The United States is accusing North Korea of secretly supplying Russia with a significant number of artillery shells for use in the Ukraine war and is trying to hide the shipments by making it appear as if the ammunition is being sent to countries in the Middle East or North Africa, according to newly declassified intelligence.

US officials believe that the surreptitious North Korean shipments – along with drones and other weaponry that Russia has acquired from Iran – are further evidence that even Moscow’s conventional artillery arsenals have dwindled during eight months of combat.

Recent intelligence suggesting that the shipments are proceeding comes about two months after the US intelligence community said that it believed Russia was in the process of buying millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea for use on the battlefield, CNN and other outlets reported at the time.

I know that it comes as a shock that the Norks lied about not sending materiel to Russia.

quote:

“In September, the (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) publicly denied that it intended to provide ammunition to Russia,” the National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby said in a statement to CNN. “However, our information indicates that the DPRK is covertly supplying Russia’s war in Ukraine with a significant number of artillery shells, while obfuscating the real destination of the arms shipments by trying to make it appear as though they are being sent to countries in the Middle East or North Africa.”


I think that supply of artillery shells remains one of the bigger unknowns of how this war ends.

The West is supplying Ukraine with 155mm shells, but not really enough, and Western stocks are starting to dwindle.

But Russian stocks are also limited, and we don't know how much they have left and how much can be produced by Russia and its partners.
Posted by SlimTigerSlap
Member since Apr 2022
4313 posts
Posted on 11/2/22 at 9:04 am to
quote:

Please provide an example of Trump sucking Putin's nut sack.

In 2017, a Republican-led Congress with overwhelming bipartisan support passed a veto-proof sanctions bill targeting Russia. They did so because Trump refused. When it came to signing it, he said -

“The bill remains seriously flawed – particularly because it encroaches on the executive branch’s authority to negotiate,” he said in the statement. “Congress could not even negotiate a health care bill after seven years of talking. By limiting the executive’s flexibility, this bill makes it harder for the United States to strike good deals for the American people, and will drive China, Russia, and North Korea much closer together. … I built a truly great company worth many billions of dollars. That is a big part of the reason I was elected. As President, I can make far better deals with foreign countries than Congress.”


BTW, the bill included language that restricted Trump's ability to ease sanctions unilaterally.
This post was edited on 11/2/22 at 9:07 am
Posted by TigerDoc
Texas
Member since Apr 2004
11880 posts
Posted on 11/2/22 at 9:10 am to
quote:

Please provide an example of Trump sucking Putin's nut sack.


He said he believed Putin when Putin said Russia hadn't tried to interfere in the 2016 election despite all the evidence he had from our national security folks.

Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15772 posts
Posted on 11/2/22 at 9:24 am to
quote:

Russia hadn't tried to interfere in the 2016 election despite all the evidence he had from our national security folks.


Yet Ted Kennedy sought the Kremlin's help to keep Reagan from winning.

The point is that Russia runs a "create chaos and distrust" game for elections. It is not about trying to pick winners and losers in the USA. It has been doing this in the US for decades but the internet has made things more visible, plus nutters
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8172 posts
Posted on 11/2/22 at 9:25 am to
Interesting Twitter thread about what happening in the Russian army with some of the mobilized. I have no idea if this is legit, it does coincide with a LOT of other information that has emerged.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1587742973760098307

quote:

1/ Mobilised men of the Russian 4th Guards Tank Division are sheltering in an abandoned house in Svatove without food or water after fleeing from the front line under intense Ukrainian fire that killed their commander. They are now being threatened with court martials. Thread ??
Image
2/ The independent Russian media outlet Novaya Gazeta Europe (NGE) reports that 27 survivors of the 6th and 7th companies of the 423rd Guards Yampolsky Motor Rifle Regiment are facing punishment for leaving the front line near Svatove in eastern Ukraine on 25 October.
3/ Three of the mens' wives have spoken to NGE about what has happened to them. Here's a translated summary.
4/ The men were mobilised in late September and sent to a training range at Naro-Fominsk, where they were told that they would stay for between two weeks and a month to receive training. However, they were sent within 3 days to a forest camp near Valuyki in Belgorod oblast.
5/ According to one wife, who visited the camp, "For the first two or three days they dug trenches. People lived in the camp, right under the open sky. I personally saw this camp, because I went there.
6/ There were tents with some kind of potbelly stoves, which, according to her husband, were full of holes. Some guys just spent the night in the open air, they didn't have tents."
7/ On 14 October, the newly mobilised men were sent to the front line, having received next to no training. One wife says, "they weren’t taught anything in the camp, they were taken to the firing range twice, and that’s all." They were armed only with automatic rifles.
8/ The men had mobilised willingly out of patriotism but their enthusiasm was likely dented when they learned that out of a previous group of 96 mobilised men sent from the camp on 7 October, only 20 had returned alive after Ukrainian shelling.
9/ The same thing happened to them when they reached the forest near Svatove on 15 October, where they immediately faced the grinding onslaught of the ongoing Ukrainian offensive. Many of their group were killed or wounded, including their two commanders.
10/ On 25 October, according to one wife, "they were shelled for 12 hours, my husband's company was all mobilised [men], they were lying there in some forest and did not raise their heads because of the shelling.
11/ "They were shelled with artillery and mortars, one of their commanders, also a mobilised man, was blown up in front of them, many had concussions and their eardrums were ruptured. Fortunately my husband is unharmed, alive."
12/ "The second commander had a broken rib and shrapnel wounds."

Another wife says that "for many hours they just lay on the ground and pretended to be dead for one simple reason: they had no other weapons besides submachine guns."
13/ And there were mortars against them, drones flew over them, if they had moved a finger, a drone would have come and destroyed them instantly."

One soldier told his wife, "Lena, we have been lying on the ground for half a day because drones and mortars are working."
14/ After "one commander was torn to pieces," the wounded other one gave the order to retreat when it got dark. The men returned to their base at Svatove but were told that they would not be allowed in, except for those who were wounded.
15/ It's unclear though whether the wounded have received medical treatment. According to one wife, "the wounded commander, unfortunately, has not yet been provided with proper medical care, they say that there is no equipment."
16/ The surviving unwounded men now "refuse to go back to the front line because they want to live. After they refused to return, they were offered new equipment, bulletproof vests, helmets – or a court martial."
17/ The men say that "General Lugovoi came to them and intimidated them with a term of five to seven years [of imprisonment] for desertion". One man contacted his wife on 26 October: "Wife, save us, we will be declared deserters. We are being court-martialed."
18/ "And now", one wife says, "they are in some abandoned house. Their bank cards are blocked, they are without a livelihood, without money, without food, without water. My husband told me that he had not eaten for several days, and we do not know what to do about it."
19/ Another wife says that they did manage to get some money to the men through an intermediary "at least for the guys to buy water and food. They had nothing left after the mortar shelling. One sleeping bag [between] all of them, and now it’s also cold."
20/ The men had left the recruiting office "smiling, in high spirits, hoping for victory. They used to say: "The Motherland has called us, so we have to go"."

Now, though, the wives say that the mobiks have undergone a radical shift in attitude.
21/ One wife says: "They are now saying that the Motherland is not helping in any way, that the people who command them consider them living meat.

The authorities have mobilised couch troops with no experience and thrown them into the meat grinder."
22/ "My spouse said when he was leaving here that he would fall for Russia if necessary, he has never given up his homeland in his life. At the moment he has had a major change of outlook."
23/ "He told me: "I am ready to desert, let them put me in jail, but I will not go to the front line. It's a one-way ticket there.""
24/ Another wife says that her husband went "with his head proudly raised... to defend our homeland, and everything was fine until our homeland betrayed him and threw him under fire like cannon fodder. With nothing. He says he was disappointed in our state, in our army ..."
25/ And here, in fact, my husband's character is broken, that he flatly refutes everything he used to say."
26/ He and the other men say they would rather go to prison than back to the front line.

"This is his clear position now: "I'd rather be in jail than defend my state, which doesn't care about human lives.""
27/ The men's account closely matches those of other recently mobilised Russians whose stories have emerged of being sent to the front line unprepared and underequipped. (See below.)
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1585342009878773760

/end

Posted by TigersnJeeps
FL Panhandle
Member since Jan 2021
2869 posts
Posted on 11/2/22 at 9:36 am to
World power needing equipment from Iran and NK.

My, how far they have fallen.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8172 posts
Posted on 11/2/22 at 9:37 am to
quote:

I think that supply of artillery shells remains one of the bigger unknowns of how this war ends.


I think you are on point with your observation about the supply of Artillery rounds. The US is getting low on the available 155M rounds we can send to Ukraine.

The US's biggest lesson learned from this war is that we need to increase the size of our war stockpiles. Today, we can't fight a major war like WW2 that was several years long, we'd run out of ammo and we don't have the ability to produce enough, fast enough.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42651 posts
Posted on 11/2/22 at 9:43 am to
Lol, they blocked their bank cards. Man, I don’t know. It all sounds contrived, but what do I know. There’s so much propaganda now, there’s no way to really know.
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 11/2/22 at 9:47 am to
quote:

I think you are on point with your observation about the supply of Artillery rounds. The US is getting low on the available 155M rounds we can send to Ukraine.

The US's biggest lesson learned from this war is that we need to increase the size of our war stockpiles. Today, we can't fight a major war like WW2 that was several years long, we'd run out of ammo and we don't have the ability to produce enough, fast enough.


How was it done in WWII? Legitimate question I’ve never thought of. Obviously was not alive then, if I was the reporting and info Avila let is vastly different than now. I think it’s easy to think they just literally fought and launched artillery daily in WWII knowing its scale and just trying to read, or watch a semi-nonfictional depiction of the war. Reality is probably very different.

I know we mostly returned to an isolationist policy post-WWI, but we also achieved a manufacturing miracle once we entered WWII. How did the other participants from the beginning of the war manage this? Did they have massive stockpiles because they went through WWI and knew to do so? Did they have to produce along and along for most of the war and that created pauses in movement and shelling?
Posted by jeffsdad
Member since Mar 2007
24898 posts
Posted on 11/2/22 at 9:48 am to
How fast can we produce them?
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