- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 10/13/22 at 10:43 am to OMLandshark
Posted on 10/13/22 at 10:43 am to OMLandshark
quote:
Why not?
Because it rewards tremendously bad behavior. Imagine this. Country A threatens Country B by building up troops. Negotiations fail because Country A cannot be appeased. They invade Country B. The invasion fails to reach its objectives. Country A, who is a nuclear power, realizes this early on. They begin to threaten to use nukes if Country B's counteroffensive reaches lands it considers its own, lands taken from Country B. Because of this, 3rd parties negoatiate a peace treaty in which Country A gets to keep lands it gains in exchange for neblouous security guarantees. 20 years later, Country A, who has spent massive amounts on military expenditures, again threatens invasion. They do the same thing over again. This pattern repeats over and over until finally they have de facto control over Country B. Did the first peace treaty work?
quote:
We do concessions in wars all the time.
In order to have concessions, you need leverage. Do you understand this?
quote:
What if Putin is satisfied with Donbas and Crimea?
But the Russian elite have been so explicit that they are not satisfied with this. They don't care that you might negotiate a temporary peace. They are going to keep you to your word, but will never attempt to keep their own word, as they have shown repeatedly. You understand that Russia violated several separate treaties that said that Russia would never violate Ukraine's sovereignty, correct? What will keep them at their word?
0
Posted on 10/13/22 at 10:44 am to TigerDoc
quote:
This is head-in-the-sand wishful thinking. Russia doesn't consider the Ukrainian government legitimate. Why would Russia honor a deal?
So long as it’s a possibility to off ramp from nuclear war, it’s worth a shot. It’s possible, so no, I’m not budging on this.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 10:45 am to OMLandshark
quote:
Why not? We do concessions in wars all the time. What if Putin is satisfied with Donbas and Crimea?
He wasn’t in February.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 10:45 am to OMLandshark
quote:
So long as it’s a possibility to off ramp from nuclear war, it’s worth a shot. It’s possible, so no, I’m not budging on this.
It is absolutely not possible from the Russian perspective. They've been so explicit about this that it beggars belief you think, without cause, that they would be satisfied with those relatively small gains.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 10:45 am to mmcgrath
quote:
The "15 Days to Slow the Spread" was a political message put together by Trump and Pence.
Neither Trump nor Pence are the experts, dude. Yes, they signed off on it, but that was not their brainchild. That was the likes of Fauci, Collins, Birx, and Gates’ brainchild.
This post was edited on 10/13/22 at 10:47 am
Posted on 10/13/22 at 10:49 am to OMLandshark
quote:
Neither Trump nor Pence are the experts, dude. Yes, signed off on it, but that was not their brainchild. That was the likes of Fauci, Collins, Birx, and Gates’ brainchild.
I thought the buck stopped with the President?
Posted on 10/13/22 at 10:52 am to OMLandshark
quote:
So long as it’s a possibility to off ramp from nuclear war, it’s worth a shot. It’s possible, so no, I’m not budging on this.
This guarantees a negotiating party to lose in every conflict with a party threatening to use nukes. There has got to be a better way.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 10:52 am to SoonerK
quote:
I thought the buck stopped with the President?
I’ll put it this way: Trump not firing Fauci is a dealbreaker voting for him over DeSantis.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 10:54 am to OMLandshark
quote:
Neither Trump nor Pence are the experts, dude. Yes, they signed off on it, but that was not their brainchild. That was the likes of Fauci, Collins, Birx, and Gates’ brainchild
sorry as someone who voted for trump 2x and will again unless its desantis, paul or Massie .....trump 100% gets blame for that nad the first covid spending bill.
have to take the good with the bad.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 11:00 am to TigerDoc
quote:
This guarantees a negotiating party to lose in every conflict with a party threatening to use nukes. There has got to be a better way.
Also guarantees a massive nuclear arms race. Libertarians are naïve about international relations, like I said. In the realist model, states are only as secure as their nearest rivals. In an anarchic world, which is the one OML wants, states will spend as much as they need in order to satisfy their security concerns, which have to be at a minimum the same as their neighbor. But since that information might not be accurate, they have to spend even more, on levels which they assume their rivals are spending. This is called the security dilemma, or the security spiral.
If Russia uses nukes rhetorically to achieve offensive aims, that is going to create a much less safe world. It directly incentivizes using nukes as both deterrents and as pawns in offensive actions. The risk of nuclear war increases exponentially with more states having weapons with states willing to use them in rhetoric. The total cost of such a world is negligible to the amount we've spent in Ukraine. That is a situation in which the US will really become the 'world police.'
This is the myopia I'm talking about in regard to many the 'I just don't want to spend money on Ukraine because we are in debt right now' people, who are in effect pro-Russian concern trolls.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 11:05 am to crazy4lsu
Good points. I agree. The other part is that a nuclear war isn't the necessary response of the West to a tactical nuke and AFAIK it's not the most likely response. The EU Foreign Minister, Josep Borrel, e.g. was just quoted saying this:
LINK
So, if you're not going to escalate with nukes yourself, why are you conceding so much to prevent a Russian tactical nuke?
quote:
"Any nuclear attack on Ukraine will bring a response, not a nuclear response, but a military response so powerful that the Russian army will be annihilated"
LINK
So, if you're not going to escalate with nukes yourself, why are you conceding so much to prevent a Russian tactical nuke?
This post was edited on 10/13/22 at 11:09 am
Posted on 10/13/22 at 11:14 am to OMLandshark
quote:
but that was not their brainchild. That was the likes of Fauci, Collins, Birx, and Gates’ brainchild.
quote:So what are we believing about Ukraine from Fauci, Collins, Brix, and Gates?
And you’re believing things being told to you by the same people who told you it was only 15 days to slow the spread.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 11:16 am to OMLandshark
quote:
Let’s sacrifice Philadelphia for Odessa!
That sounds like the US would get the upside of that trade. I'm game
Posted on 10/13/22 at 11:33 am to OMLandshark
You realize the Russians have been threatening to launch nukes from the day they were able to make the bomb right? It’s their only play in their playbook yet they never do it. Wanna know why? Because mutual destruction actually works. They know if they ever really tried launching nukes they would be destroyed as well. You are scared of the boogeyman but the boogeyman is all bark with no bite. You’d be just fine rewarding Putin for his behavior invading another country by offering him a good portion of their lands just because he threatened to use nukes like every Russian and Soviet leader before him. Do you have any kind of backbone in your body? Have you ever been in a fight or stood up to a bully? You can’t talk to a bully. Force is all the Russians know and understand and right now they are only threatening nukes which they also know they cannot use because of the NATO response because they are getting their asses handed to them by the country they expected to roll over in 72 hours.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 11:42 am to LSUPilot07
Russian Governor in Kherson is calling for an evacuation of the city and help from Moscow in executing this evacuation. Other people are reporting Russia is agreeing to provide assistance to move civilians out of the city but those sources are paywalled.
Things may be coming to a head in Kherson pretty soon if these reports prove true.
LINK
Things may be coming to a head in Kherson pretty soon if these reports prove true.
LINK
Posted on 10/13/22 at 11:46 am to crazy4lsu
quote:as evidenced by the fact that they talk in peace terms almost unilaterally in ways that give Russia exactly what it wants and exclusively through the lens of us being responsible for the war as opposed to the country who literally started it and could end it and choose peace any time they want
This is the myopia I'm talking about in regard to many the 'I just don't want to spend money on Ukraine because we are in debt right now' people, who are in effect pro-Russian concern trolls.
This post was edited on 10/13/22 at 11:48 am
Posted on 10/13/22 at 11:52 am to OMLandshark
quote:
Either China threatening us with nukes over Taiwan or invading Taiwan would be the worst thing to happen in our lifetimes.
The best way to ensure this is exactly what happens is to do what you suggest with Russia and Ukraine.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 12:00 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
The best way to ensure this is exactly what happens is to do what you suggest with Russia and Ukraine.
Bingo. I don’t understand how anyone would think appeasement of Russia’s land grab using force and nuclear threats would not embolden China into taking similar action.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 12:02 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
as evidenced by the fact that they talk in peace terms almost unilaterally in ways that give Russia exactly what it wants and exclusively through the lens of us being responsible for the war as opposed to the country who literally started it and could end it and choose peace any time they want
They almost never call people who support Russia, of which there are a notable few, warmongers either. The logic is pained. For them, everything happens because of the West, regardless of the actual facts on the ground. Thus the West, as some omniscient force, has to act in such a way that obfuscates their own interest at the expense of someone else's. The Ukrainians self-determination matters little. What matters is that the West has to give in to avoid inconveniences now. It is so stupid that they actually believe this.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 12:04 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
Things may be coming to a head in Kherson pretty soon if these reports prove true.
They probably know Ukraine is telling civilians to leave also. It makes sense that the less civilians, the better for Ukraine to bombard the occupying Russian forces. Bring in the artillery before charging straight on.
Page 1976 of 5046
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News