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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:37 pm to Obtuse1
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:37 pm to Obtuse1
This also creates a hazard to shipping to Poland from the USA, the most direct route to Ukraine. If the pressure is still bubbling up by tomorrow or the next day, then Russia is still sending gas down the pipelines.
0
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:40 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Will you please stop this crap with OML? You are encouraging him to spam this board. Just ignore him.
Mea culpa. He's just so retarded.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:44 pm to CitizenK
quote:
HUGE: Turkish state banks are dumping Russian payment system MIR according to a Turkish official speaking to @FiratKozok
— Bloomberg
quote:
Erdogan said last week that Turkey was looking for an alternative to Mir system
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:52 pm to jeffsdad
quote:
When the U's approach the Russian border are they receiving artillery fire from the Russians on the Russian side? I know they are launching missiles from planes from the Russian side, but I haven't heard of anything else. I assume they are not, because that would require return fire from the U's and neither side want it to look as though the U's are attacking mother R.
Some times they receive fir and some times they do not. During the counterattack the Russians fled and the Ukrainians approached the border and without receiving fire. My buddy sent me a snapchat of him standing on the Ukrainian side of the border and pissing on the Russian side of the border. So obviously they were not worried about artillery fire at that point, but there are also videos of troops along the border receiving fire from inside Russia. It all depends on organized how the Russian force across the border is.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:59 pm to Obtuse1
Well baws and cry baby cowards (aka OMLandshark) it appears that the fall Rasputitisia has started. I wonder if the Russians have figured out how to fight in mud or not yet?
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:07 pm to WeeWee
How is that going to help the Ukrainians retake territory in the same conditions?
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:21 pm to Athanatos
quote:
International Observers Ukraine
@IntObservers
Poland and Bulgaria’s foreign ministries are recommending all of their citizens leave Russia by any means possible.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:24 pm to Athanatos
It won’t help either side for forward movement but Ukraine knew this and timed their offensive precisely to coincide with the change in weather. They severed the vast majority of Russia’s supply lines into Ukraine and are almost done choking off Lyman which is another vital area for the Russians. So now with the muddy season hitting Russia will be forced to attack into the teeth of Ukrainian defenders with untrained conscripts and outdated equipment that can’t be supplied anywhere close to the front lines. Russia’s armor advantage is neutralized because they have to stay on the roads versus getting stuck in the fields and Ukraine has better stand-off weapons with the HIMARS we sent them that they can sit back and pick off targets of opportunity. If you would have told Ukrainian commanders in July they would sitting where they are on the battlefield at the start of the rainy season I’m sure none would have believed you but here we are. The pressure is now on Russia to attack and reclaim territory taken back in absolute shite conditions. The Ukrainians can now fortify their lines and wait for the inevitable wave after wave of cannon fodder to be sent at them. The body count of dead Russians is about to get real because Putin is backed into a corner and isn’t going to just pull back so he will instead send many young and old men to their deaths like sheep.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:37 pm to Athanatos
quote:
How is that going to help the Ukrainians retake territory in the same conditions?
The Ukrainians have multiple rail lines supplying the front around Lyman. The Russians are done to one 2 lane highway to supply Lyman. Once Lyman falls or is encircling and bypassed then the Ukrainians will be close enough to Luhansk city to take out the rail bridges over the SD river with HIMARS which will leave Russia with only one railroad connecting the Donbas to Russia.
Plus the Ukrainians demonstrated last spring in there counterattacks that drove Russia away from Kyiv, Kharkiv city, and Mykolaiv that one of the things they learned during the previous 8 years of war was how to operate in the mud.
The start of the Rasputitsia is also another thing that will hurt the morale of the Russian troops especially the new conscripts.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:47 pm to WeeWee
ISW update
quote:
Russian authorities in occupied parts of Ukraine’s Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts completed their falsified annexation “referenda” on September 27 and implausibly claimed that each sham referendum received between 87 and 99% approval from Ukrainian residents.
quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely announce the Russian annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory on September 30.
quote:
Russian forces are reportedly committing newly-mobilized Western Military District (WMD) men to the Kherson and Kharkiv Oblast frontlines without prior training.
quote:
Key Takeaways
Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely announce the Russian annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory on September 30 after Russian officials completed their falsified “referenda” on September 27.
Russian forces are reportedly committing newly-mobilized Western Military District (WMD) men to the Kherson and Kharkiv Oblast frontlines without prior training.
Ukrainian forces are consolidating their positions on the eastern bank of the Oskil river and made further gains on the outskirts of Lyman.
Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) as part of the southern counter-offensive interdiction campaign, particularly disrupting Russian efforts to build barge crossings.
Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive operations around Bakhmut and west of Donetsk City, increasingly leveraging penal units.
Russian forces inflicted severe damage on a Ukrainian airfield in Kryvyi Rih and continued routine air and missile strikes across southern Ukraine.
Russian authorities are establishing checkpoints at Russia’s borders to forcibly mobilize Russian men who are seeking to avoid forced mobilization by fleeing the country.
Russian officials are setting conditions to forcibly mobilize or conscript Ukrainian civilians in soon-to-be annexed areas of occupied Ukraine.
The Russian annexation of occupied Donetsk and Luhansk will likely exacerbate tensions within DNR and LNR forces, who regularly mutiny when asked to fight outside the borders of their own oblasts.
Russian officials may attempt to reframe their invasion of Ukraine and occupation of soon-to-be-annexed Ukrainian territory as a “counterterrorism operation.”
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:48 pm to Athanatos
quote:
How is that going to help the Ukrainians retake territory in the same conditions?
Long day so I won't attempt to write a tome.
I think resupply slightly favors the Ukes. While the roads in Ukraine are crappy most of their resupply roads haven't been subjected to the volume of armor nor arty.
Arty favors the Ukes since they have better high precision long range arty and while both will be limited in shoot and scoot the Ukes have much better counter battery fire and the Russians poor counter battery fire so it gives the Ukes a little more margin for error.
Armor will be about even.
I think the real Uke advantage is how the individual soldiers are outfitted for the weather. Seeing Russian encampments using clear plastic and white sheets as tarps/tents tells one a lot. The new conscripts are going to be low morale and the weather with inadequate gear is going to break them. Piss poor weather is a strain on even the best trained, best equipped, and most seasoned soldiers. When the new conscripts morale gets even worse than it already is just getting pulled out of their life and sent into combat it will impact the units they are assigned to. Low morale is more contagious than smallpox and in combat more deadly than Ebola.
Being a boot in the mud SUCKS being an ill-fed, ill-equipped, and just plain ill boot in the mud plus getting shot at day and night will tear the mental and physical constitution of even the most high speed low drag soldier to shreds.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:49 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Mea culpa. He's just so retarded.
Then please just let him be retarded. You're not going to change that. TIA.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:00 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:Reminds one of the Volkssturm…
Russian forces are reportedly committing newly-mobilized Western Military District (WMD) men to the Kherson and Kharkiv Oblast frontlines without prior training.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:06 pm to WeeWee
Now that I’ve read through 12 pages of largely back and forth bull crap and off topic arguing, I find the pipeline sabotage interesting and hopefully at some point we’ll have some sort of credible evidence to provide answers. In the mean time, I have a couple of theories, or probably more accurate, related thoughts not fully developed:
Russian sabotage used for their own gain, whether domestic or international - the pipelines were both shut off, potentially for good, therefore potentially seen as sunk cost to Putin so not much lost in using for propaganda and/or alliance infighting if done properly.
Ukrainian sabotage, but would have to be with help - correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t Denmark training Ukrainian troops on their soil? If so, potential operation beginning there out into the Baltic Sea.
US sabotage: potential political benefits with some propaganda the Russia is even further the aggressor and expanding their attempts to disrupt European energy, potentially with the US seeing the pipelines as closed potentially for good so minimal to no harm to European energy.
Nordic sabotage - mixture of political gain & economic gain. They’ve been threatened for their NATO application, they’ve aided Ukraine, history with Russia. Not sure that’s achieved by their sabotage. Economic - energy export growth to the rest of Europe and eliminating potential future means of Russian encroachment.
Poland: laundry list of history and current aid to Ukraine
Baltic sabotage: see Poland
Possibility of singular nations or potentially more likely a group of nations including the US, potentially in blessing only, to sabotage the pipeline to eliminate possibility of German concession to Putin at some point to restart the flow of gas and/or to send them a message we’re done with their waffling. shite or get off the pot. Thinking Poland, Baltics, Nordics, US, UK here.
Don’t really think anyone in the ME could pull this off given need for naval capabilities and the military traffic & monitoring in the region.
Make any kind of sense to anyone else? Just trying to think through possible explanations.
Russian sabotage used for their own gain, whether domestic or international - the pipelines were both shut off, potentially for good, therefore potentially seen as sunk cost to Putin so not much lost in using for propaganda and/or alliance infighting if done properly.
Ukrainian sabotage, but would have to be with help - correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t Denmark training Ukrainian troops on their soil? If so, potential operation beginning there out into the Baltic Sea.
US sabotage: potential political benefits with some propaganda the Russia is even further the aggressor and expanding their attempts to disrupt European energy, potentially with the US seeing the pipelines as closed potentially for good so minimal to no harm to European energy.
Nordic sabotage - mixture of political gain & economic gain. They’ve been threatened for their NATO application, they’ve aided Ukraine, history with Russia. Not sure that’s achieved by their sabotage. Economic - energy export growth to the rest of Europe and eliminating potential future means of Russian encroachment.
Poland: laundry list of history and current aid to Ukraine
Baltic sabotage: see Poland
Possibility of singular nations or potentially more likely a group of nations including the US, potentially in blessing only, to sabotage the pipeline to eliminate possibility of German concession to Putin at some point to restart the flow of gas and/or to send them a message we’re done with their waffling. shite or get off the pot. Thinking Poland, Baltics, Nordics, US, UK here.
Don’t really think anyone in the ME could pull this off given need for naval capabilities and the military traffic & monitoring in the region.
Make any kind of sense to anyone else? Just trying to think through possible explanations.
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 9:09 pm
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:15 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
Possibility of singular nations or potentially more likely a group of nations including the US, potentially in blessing only, to sabotage the pipeline to eliminate possibility of German concession to Putin at some point to restart the flow of gas and/or to send them a message we’re done with their waffling. shite or get off the pot. Thinking Poland, Baltics, Nordics, US, UK here.
This is where I was. I've heard some good alternatives though.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:17 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
I think resupply slightly favors the Ukes. While the roads in Ukraine are crappy most of their resupply roads haven't been subjected to the volume of armor nor arty.
The start of the Rasputitsia means there won't be any large armored deployments until the grounds freezes solid which will be in January or possibly as late ad February if this winter in Ukraine is as warm as last winter was. However, unless the Russians completely change their logistics strategy they will keep piling supplies and armor into Ukraine to be ready when the ground freezes and those supply depos will be relatively close to the front. Ukraine has the ability to take those out with HIMARS and Ukrainian spetnaz are experts at ambushing convoys and thanks to the mud the convoy cannot go off road to get around an ambush like they have done in the summer.
quote:
I think the real Uke advantage is how the individual soldiers are outfitted for the weather. Seeing Russian encampments using clear plastic and white sheets as tarps/tents tells one a lot. The new conscripts are going to be low morale and the weather with inadequate gear is going to break them. Piss poor weather is a strain on even the best trained, best equipped, and most seasoned soldiers. When the new conscripts morale gets even worse than it already is just getting pulled out of their life and sent into combat it will impact the units they are assigned to. Low morale is more contagious than smallpox and in combat more deadly than Ebola.
Being a boot in the mud SUCKS being an ill-fed, ill-equipped, and just plain ill boot in the mud plus getting shot at day and night will tear the mental and physical constitution of even the most high speed low drag soldier to shreds.
Yes. The morale of the Russian troops is already low. From what we have seen of the conscripts their morale is not much better. I do expect Russia to properly outfit their troops with clothing but shelter is another matter. Those poor bass turds who got conscripted are going to be arriving in Ukraine starting around November 1st and will continue to arrive throughout the Rasputitsia and the start of winter. If Lyman falls and the Ukrainians take out most of the rail links to Russia with HIMARs then those troops will be deploying to Ukraine by vehicles. Those troops will get ambushed before they even get to the front. That will hurt morale. Then they will have to live in the mud and once the mud is gone the "Russian winter" sets in. The Soviet soldier in WW2 might have been used to living in primitive conditions in winter and been able to fight, but the modern Russian man is used to living in apartments not tents during winter. That will be another hit to morale especially if their supply convoys keeping ambushed and their depos keep getting blown up. The Russian soldiers are in for a tough 5 months or so. At some point during that 5 months barring a miracle for Russia, Kherson will fall and 20,000 or so Russian troops will be captured and that will be a huge blow to Russian morale. It is very possible that the Russian army mutiny's before winter is over.
Meanwhile the Ukrainians are motivated to reclaim their homeland, believe they can defeat the Russians, and no longer fear the mighty Russian army. They will face the same obstacles but their morale is sky high going into winter and they seem to be organized than the Russians.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:23 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
Russian sabotage used for their own gain, whether domestic or international - the pipelines were both shut off, potentially for good, therefore potentially seen as sunk cost to Putin so not much lost in using for propaganda and/or alliance infighting if done properly. Ukrainian sabotage, but would have to be with help - correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t Denmark training Ukrainian troops on their soil? If so, potential operation beginning there out into the Baltic Sea. US sabotage: potential political benefits with some propaganda the Russia is even further the aggressor and expanding their attempts to disrupt European energy, potentially with the US seeing the pipelines as closed potentially for good so minimal to no harm to European energy. Nordic sabotage - mixture of political gain & economic gain. They’ve been threatened for their NATO application, they’ve aided Ukraine, history with Russia. Not sure that’s achieved by their sabotage. Economic - energy export growth to the rest of Europe and eliminating potential future means of Russian encroachment. Poland: laundry list of history and current aid to Ukraine Baltic sabotage: see Poland Possibility of singular nations or potentially more likely a group of nations including the US, potentially in blessing only, to sabotage the pipeline to eliminate possibility of German concession to Putin at some point to restart the flow of gas and/or to send them a message we’re done with their waffling. shite or get off the pot. Thinking Poland, Baltics, Nordics, US, UK here. Don’t really think anyone in the ME could pull this off given need for naval capabilities and the military traffic & monitoring in the region. Make any kind of sense to anyone else? Just trying to think through possible explanations.
All makes sense and are possibilities. I think the Russian theory is the least likely with the “group of nations” or US being the most likely. The tactical upside is that the US and/or group of nations can now prevent Germany from caving on the sanctions against Russia so that the US can maintain its proxy war on Russia using the Ukraine and the EU as expendable assets.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:23 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Conscripts in the Russian Federation break their legs to avoid being mobilized
Warning bones are broken so don’t watch if you are squimish or sane
I guess that is better than dying in Ukraine, but still yikes.
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 9:38 pm
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:28 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
Possibility of singular nations or potentially more likely a group of nations including the US, potentially in blessing only, to sabotage the pipeline to eliminate possibility of German concession to Putin at some point to restart the flow of gas and/or to send them a message we’re done with their waffling.
I am thinking it’s a false flag by Russia to rally the people who are obviously not rallying to the flag with patriotism. However, I can believe that scenario as well.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:44 pm to WeeWee
Actually there is a higher than thought chance of dying from that, I would just sneak out of the country.
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