re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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I can’t think of anything that would break a foot soldier’s spirit more than knowing you just have to take the incoming fire and have no real means of counter battery to it.

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I can think of something that would break his spirits more. Sitting there and realizing that you are stuck in the mud under fire and the sleeping bag that you had to pay for is going to be soaked and covered in mud and your regiment’s vodka stores just got hit by a HIMARs.

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The start of the Rasputitsia means there won't be any large armored deployments until the grounds freezes solid which will be in January or possibly as late ad February if this winter in Ukraine is as warm as last winter was. 

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If it's difficult to attack across the ground, the air war becomes more important.

And that's an area that was a clear advantage for Russia at the beginning of the war, which Ukraine eventually evened out through drones and HARM, which I think is actually now an advantage for Ukraine.

Ukraine is shooting down several Russian aircraft a day now. When the NASAMS and IRIS systems are in place in a couple of months, Russia will be able to do nothing.

Today, for the first time in the war, we saw Ukrainian planes in close air support drop bombs on Russian tanks and destroy one.

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HARM missiles have devastated an already-bad Russian air defense. If Ukraine can start regularly using aircraft to attack Russian positions, then one of Russia's biggest advantages in this war has been completely flipped and is now a Ukrainian advantage. (And if anyone had said this before February 24, they would have been committed to an asylum.)

So the educated Russians fleeing conscription are the ones finding new and fun ways to break their legs? Hate to see what the poor Siberian backwoods guys come up with. Half kidding, I get what you’re saying that the ones with the means to get out of the country are doing so but eventually all this has to come crashing into Putin’s face. Literally nothing has gone to plan for his so called special operation. In 50-100 years military academies will be teaching this conflict as a case study in what NOT to do.

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to sabotage the pipeline to eliminate possibility of German concession to Putin at some point to restart the flow of gas and/or to send them a message we’re done with their waffling

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That seems a harsh message given that they could have just told the Germans this directly. Given how much diplomacy went into convincing the French and Germans, now would be an odd time to use this as a message to the Germans specifically. I’m more inclined to think this had broad consensus among NATO powers, given the effort members have taken to ensure some degree of consensus. Sending a message to the Germans like this undermines the method that has been used so far, and would feel like it would undermine the alliance as a whole.

My thinking is that this could possibly be a response to the various referenda and possible annexation if it is the West.

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Given how much diplomacy went into convincing the French and Germans, now would be an odd time to use this as a message to the Germans specifically.

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What exactly have they been convinced of though? Germany is still balking as sending meaningful aid to Ukraine? We/Trump tried to convince them of the issues of reliance on Russia for energy and that didn’t work either. Not commenting to argue, just not exactly sure what diplomacy has been successful in convincing the Germans of.

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My thinking is that this could possibly be a response to the various referenda and possible annexation if it is the West.

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Certainly possible, but if this is our answer I’d have to think some sort of concessions were made to the Germans to account for loss of potential return of gas flow postwar at some point since this answer would seemingly require the Germans to be onboard as well.

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I am thinking it’s a false flag by Russia to rally the people who are obviously not rallying to the flag with patriotism. However, I can believe that scenario as well.

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Force Majeur for Gazprom then to repair technological sanction on Russia would have to be lifted.

Tucker is already pitching the Russian lies

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You'd need either saturation divers

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Just a point of clarification you would not have to use sat divers for the mission. First, if the pressure of 7 BAR is accurate on the pipeline post-breach then the area where the breach occurred is only ~70m. Even assuming is it 80m it is completely possible via mixed gas dive. Commercial mixed gas divers are green-lit for 75m bounce dives without a waiver. While an extra 5-10m is NOT inconsequential you could get approval for such a dive with a short bottom time in the commercial world so it is certainly possible in the world with no rules. That said it is unlikely any military in the world has mixed gas divers that are capable* of that sort of dive. The deep water commercial diving community sat and mixed gas combined is a very small one.



* not saying there aren't any that could do the dive because it isn't rocket surgery unless something goes wrong but it would likely be far outside of their normal operations envelope

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Force Majeur

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You are just pulling this out of your arse. Gasprom was declaring force makeup bakc in June and July. They didn’t need to blow the pipelines to do it. Russia had literally nothing to gain from it. In fact, only three countries on earth had something to gain from it, the USA, Poland, and Ukraine. You NATO heads best position would be yeah, the US did blew the pipelines, but it’s a good thing.

Russia sabotaged the gazprom nordstream pipeline, don’t ask me how I know but I know. I also know for a fact that senior and junior executives at Gazprom and Gazprom bank are literally and figuratively being held hostage by the Kremlin. They are having their lives threatened, their childrens lives threatened and the Kremlin is able to seize all assets at any moment. Those executives that have disappeared have manufactured and real Kompromat that will destroy them and their families to the point of taking their own lives. If this is Putins end game he had it thoroughly planned out at every turn and every level. He may be a shite military tactician but he is ready to burn the whole house down at the minute. There is speculation about how his time will end prematurely in the next few weeks. I’m told his cancer may reappear, that there may be a transportation issue or that he may simply go quietly in his sleep from an previously undisclosed heart issue. Russia is watching this all unfold already knowing this means new leadership and the only question is who and how bad. I’m also told there is new and better weaponry already in place just in case things go hinky and that Russia is aware of countermeasures that will be triggered by overt threats. The Nordstream sabotage has already been back channeled and the Kremlin won’t be able to plausibly deny that they attacked NATO countries security interests much longer. The next tranche of weaponry being sent is an effective response according to some folks I talk with. Keep an eye on the Baltics CZ and Slovakia as they are pushing some solutions that make sense to America and Britain. The mobilization has turned in to a humiliation that is sticking to Putin along with the referendums. Ordinary Russians are now being publicly forced to think about the war in personal terms, some high ranking Kremlin and Duma peoples kids have been arrested for protesting and this is causing parents to repudiate their own kids. Luka has now been convinced that Belarus has to be a more active participant in the war, problematic because half of his military and 2/3rds of his people are waiting for the right time to get rid of him. Putin has framed it that if he goes Luka will fall immediately after…Lukas argument about 300000 Russian men of fighting age fleeing the country in a week is actually a “good” thing was being laughed at the second after he said it. My friend said that, “Russia is a soap opera where the bad guy almost always wins and it’s the only thing on TV so you have to watch it even though you already know the ending…”