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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 9/16/22 at 10:37 pm to lsulaker
Posted on 9/16/22 at 10:37 pm to lsulaker
quote:
I’m reading too far into this but it almost looks like Erdy is supporting Putin. Putin looks hunched over a bit too. Beyond that, I’m a man and I walk by myself. Only my wife will hold my arm.
While that is possible it is common for men who are close friends to walk arm in arm or even holding hands in Turkey. Same with India and probably other countries. It is an odd custom to Westerners. Unless Putin actually needed support it was just showed the Turks they are good friends.
2
Posted on 9/16/22 at 10:42 pm to WeeWee
quote:next thing youll tell me is that western europe isnt 3 months away from being reverted to the dark ages and facing mass starvation
well I guess OML was partially right. Spillover has happened just not with NATO
Yes it’s occurring in the CSTO instead of NATO
Posted on 9/17/22 at 12:15 am to Obtuse1
As someone who is Lebanese, I understand. 10 years ago, I don’t see Putin doing this though. He was too proud.
Posted on 9/17/22 at 12:22 am to lsulaker
quote:
As someone who is Lebanese, I understand. 10 years ago, I don’t see Putin doing this though. He was too proud.
He needs (to appear) to have all the friends he can at the moment. He is that guy at a party that nobody wants to be associated with and every group he approaches breaks up and scatters.
Posted on 9/17/22 at 12:31 am to Obtuse1
quote:
Glad I don't go through life scared to death of my own shadow. I say this in all earnestness your chicken little persona is ruining your mental health whether you are aware of it or not.
Just wait till he finds out Putin is played by a black guy in the remake
Posted on 9/17/22 at 12:57 am to Celtic Tiger
Xi Jinping has commanded military to have the capability to directly attack Taiwan by 2027:
It’s the big silver lining to Russia invading Ukraine that it’s making the Chinese take a step back and reevaluate taking Taiwan. It’s a much, much more difficult invasion than Ukraine. Like Hannibal Crossing the Alps level of difficulty. The Taiwanese will know and see everything before it happens and the assault will be amphibious. So I guess good news here that they’re going back to the drawing board after Xi and Putin met.
quote:
Chinese President Xi Jinping has told his military that he wants to have the capability to take control of Taiwan by force by 2027, per CIA Deputy Director David Cohen—but, he said, the IC does not currently believe that Beijing has made a decision about whether to proceed.
“He has not made the decision to do that, but he has asked his military to put him in a position where if that's what he wanted to do, he would be able to. It's still the assessment of the IC as a whole that Xi's interest in Taiwan is to get control through nonmilitary means.”
It’s the big silver lining to Russia invading Ukraine that it’s making the Chinese take a step back and reevaluate taking Taiwan. It’s a much, much more difficult invasion than Ukraine. Like Hannibal Crossing the Alps level of difficulty. The Taiwanese will know and see everything before it happens and the assault will be amphibious. So I guess good news here that they’re going back to the drawing board after Xi and Putin met.
Posted on 9/17/22 at 1:00 am to WestCoastAg
quote:
next thing youll tell me is that western europe isnt 3 months away from being reverted to the dark ages and facing mass starvation
They’re still on the timer as far as I can see. Granted, what the Ukrainians are doing now is very much encouraging, but it doesn’t change Russia’s strategy to cut off Europe from energy once winter hits.
It’s not going swimmingly for the Russians, but this has to be their strategy. The countdown ends by mid October through mid November. Hope the Ukrainians keep it up, because they still need to win more territory from here before that deadline hits.
I’ll put it this way: when they announced the next billion dollar aid package to Ukraine earlier this week, you didn’t see me come on here raging about it this time. Yeah it pissed me off somewhat, but Ukraine now has its window. If they beat back the Russians and stave off their winter strategy, then I’m not going to bitch about it as much as you think since I do want Ukraine to win.
This post was edited on 9/17/22 at 1:05 am
Posted on 9/17/22 at 6:55 am to Coeur du Tigre
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 17 September 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Ukraine continues offensive operations in the north-east of the country while
e established a defensive line between the Oskil River and the town of Svatove. Russia likely sees maintaining control of this zone as important because it is transited by one of the few main resupply routes Russia still controls from the Belgorod region of Russia.
In addition, this line sits along the border of Luhansk Oblast, part of the Donbas, which Russia aims to?liberate' as one of its immediate war aims. Any substantial loss of territory in Luhansk will unambiguously undermine Russia's strategy.
Russia will likely attempt to conduct a stubborn defence of this area, but it is unclear whether Russia's front line forces have sufficient reserves or adequate morale to withstand another concerted Ukrainian assault.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 17 September 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Ukraine continues offensive operations in the north-east of the country while
e established a defensive line between the Oskil River and the town of Svatove. Russia likely sees maintaining control of this zone as important because it is transited by one of the few main resupply routes Russia still controls from the Belgorod region of Russia.
In addition, this line sits along the border of Luhansk Oblast, part of the Donbas, which Russia aims to?liberate' as one of its immediate war aims. Any substantial loss of territory in Luhansk will unambiguously undermine Russia's strategy.
Russia will likely attempt to conduct a stubborn defence of this area, but it is unclear whether Russia's front line forces have sufficient reserves or adequate morale to withstand another concerted Ukrainian assault.
Posted on 9/17/22 at 7:14 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
"Downfall: Tankie Edition" - you knew it was coming.
I spend well over an hour a day following this war, and I still didn't know a lot of those names. It's very, very inside baseball.
Still gut-busting, though.
This post was edited on 9/17/22 at 7:15 am
Posted on 9/17/22 at 7:33 am to GOP_Tiger
I'm honestly shocked that Russian forces have held on in Lyman as long as they have. It's ultimately not defensible, as Ukrainian forces will soon attack from the north as well as the south.
Even though Ukraine's northern offensive has slowed down, I still think that they will begin pressuring Severodonetsk and Lysychansk within a week, simply because Russia has no good lines of defense and can't adequately supply forces to the west of there.
Even though Ukraine's northern offensive has slowed down, I still think that they will begin pressuring Severodonetsk and Lysychansk within a week, simply because Russia has no good lines of defense and can't adequately supply forces to the west of there.
Posted on 9/17/22 at 9:37 am to Obtuse1
The Putin/Erdogan relationship blows my mind. Erdogan opposed Putin and Russia in Syria. Erdogan did everything that he could to screw Russia there. Erdogan furnishes drones/etc. to Uzbekistan against Russia's ally Armenia. Erdogan even transferred fighters from Syria and placed them in the fight against Armenia.
Turkey shot down a Russian plane a few years back when Putin and Russia continually violated Turkey's airspace.
Turkey furnishes drones to Ukraine and Erdogan makes his statement regarding Ukraine's sovereignty over Crimea.
Russia sells the S-400 system to Turkey. Erdogan screwed NATO on this one.
There are two distinct factions in the Kremlin regarding Turkey. Putin has pursued/supported the pro Turkey faction that thinks that they can draw Turkey out of Nato. Putin has also been criticised by the anti-Turkey faction for being way too soft/easy on Erdogan.
Turkey shot down a Russian plane a few years back when Putin and Russia continually violated Turkey's airspace.
Turkey furnishes drones to Ukraine and Erdogan makes his statement regarding Ukraine's sovereignty over Crimea.
Russia sells the S-400 system to Turkey. Erdogan screwed NATO on this one.
There are two distinct factions in the Kremlin regarding Turkey. Putin has pursued/supported the pro Turkey faction that thinks that they can draw Turkey out of Nato. Putin has also been criticised by the anti-Turkey faction for being way too soft/easy on Erdogan.
This post was edited on 9/17/22 at 9:56 am
Posted on 9/17/22 at 11:28 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I'm honestly shocked that Russian forces have held on in Lyman as long as they have. It's ultimately not defensible, as Ukrainian forces will soon attack from the north as well as the south.
quote:LINK
The Ukrainian flag was raised over Dibrova village, Donetsk Oblast. The village is now completely under Ukrainian control.
quote:
Next step.. Lyman
LINK
You were saying …
Posted on 9/17/22 at 11:50 am to WeeWee
Yes, and yesterday, Ukraine also took the little village of Oleksandrivka (there must be a hundred towns in Ukraine with that name) that's northwest of Lyman -- just at the east of the forest.
So, Ukrainian forces are confirmed to be to the NW, SW, and SE of Lyman. I really don't expect Russian forces to fight to keep it, because they would likely be completely surrounded. So, I think that they will flee east in the next day or so and abandon their positions.
Then, the new battle for Severodonetsk and Lysychansk will begin, as Ukraine gradually pushes further east. I honestly see Russia getting pushed back to its February 24 defensive lines in the next month or so, even without another big Ukrainian push. Because where else is the line that has both favorable terrain and that Russia can supply?
So, Ukrainian forces are confirmed to be to the NW, SW, and SE of Lyman. I really don't expect Russian forces to fight to keep it, because they would likely be completely surrounded. So, I think that they will flee east in the next day or so and abandon their positions.
Then, the new battle for Severodonetsk and Lysychansk will begin, as Ukraine gradually pushes further east. I honestly see Russia getting pushed back to its February 24 defensive lines in the next month or so, even without another big Ukrainian push. Because where else is the line that has both favorable terrain and that Russia can supply?
This post was edited on 9/17/22 at 11:52 am
Posted on 9/17/22 at 12:08 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
So, Ukrainian forces are confirmed to be to the NW, SW, and SE of Lyman. I really don't expect Russian forces to fight to keep it, because they would likely be completely surrounded. So, I think that they will flee east in the next day or so and abandon their positions. Then, the new battle for Severodonetsk and Lysychansk will begin, as Ukraine gradually pushes further east. I honestly see Russia getting pushed back to its February 24 defensive lines in the next month or so, even without another big Ukrainian push. Because where else is the line that has both favorable terrain and that Russia can supply?
I expect Ukraine to encircle Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. Ukraine has been wise not to engage in urban combat and deplete its combat power during offensives like Russia did. Ukraine prefers to encircle the enemy and then let them flee or surrender.
ETA: Once the Russians are forced to leave Severodonetsk then they will be forced to fall back to the pre-2/24/22 lines. That is going to cause Ukraine some trouble because that area is so fortified.
This post was edited on 9/17/22 at 12:33 pm
Posted on 9/17/22 at 12:26 pm to WestCoastAg
It isn't. Stopping paying attention to Tucker. In fact, it appears that Germany may have over prepared.
Posted on 9/17/22 at 12:32 pm to AU86
quote:
The Putin/Erdogan relationship blows my mind. Erdogan opposed Putin and Russia in Syria. Erdogan did everything that he could to screw Russia there. Erdogan furnishes drones/etc. to Uzbekistan against Russia's ally Armenia. Erdogan even transferred fighters from Syria and placed them in the fight against Armenia. Turkey shot down a Russian plane a few years back when Putin and Russia continually violated Turkey's airspace. Turkey furnishes drones to Ukraine and Erdogan makes his statement regarding Ukraine's sovereignty over Crimea. Russia sells the S-400 system to Turkey. Erdogan screwed NATO on this one. There are two distinct factions in the Kremlin regarding Turkey. Putin has pursued/supported the pro Turkey faction that thinks that they can draw Turkey out of Nato. Putin has also been criticised by the anti-Turkey faction for being way too soft/easy on Erdogan.
Turkey is probably strategically the most important country in the world outside the major powers. Even when they were more democratic and secular before Erdogan, they kind of always went their own way.
Erdogan knows that and plays his hand decisively. It’s why NATO has to treat them with kid gloves.
This post was edited on 9/17/22 at 12:42 pm
Posted on 9/17/22 at 12:33 pm to CitizenK
quote:
In fact, it appears that Germany may have over prepared.
It doesnt appear that way at all
Posted on 9/17/22 at 12:37 pm to OMLandshark
So within 5 years you believe there will be war between China and Taiwan? You believe that article?
Posted on 9/17/22 at 12:40 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
SDVTiger
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