re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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No they are in shock. They are currently asking if the war is real.

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Russian military

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citizens who collaborated with Russia

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When I wrote about the battle for the Donbas, I thought that relative losses would likely be more important than territorial gains. I think Russia's gains in the Donbas were likely a Pyrrhic victory because they took heavy losses they couldn't afford, which is evident now.

Much of this comes back to Russia's unclear goals since April. Once it became clear that Russia couldn't seize or encircle Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, etc., its prospects for compelling Kyiv were weak. Even if Russia took all of the Donbas, that wouldn't end the war. 2/

So Russia then tried to occupy more of Ukraine but without a sustainable force to rotate (Russia committed 80% + of its BTGs which took heavy casualties). Russia needed to be able to defend an enormous front line and control the areas it was occupying. Not an easy task. 3/

But the choice to use a huge amount of artillery ammunition and to throw minimally trained volunteers into the fight in the spring was a very short-term view. It was never clear how Russia could achieve conflict termination, especially since Ukraine had a morale advantage. 4/

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COMBAT DEBUT: Paul Jawin
@PaulJawin
reports that this BMP-2 (and a BTR-80) abandoned and captured during the Kharkiv offensive, may have belonged to the Russian 3rd Army Corps-- a unit that was hoped to ‘turn the tide’ against Ukraine’s offensive.

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I am curious what are your military bona fides?

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BMP-2 (and a BTR-80) abandoned and captured during the Kharkiv offensive, may have belonged to the Russian 3rd Army Corps-- a unit that was hoped to ‘turn the tide’ against Ukraine’s offensive.

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The Collapse ??:
Conventional warfare is rare in the modern era, even rarer is when a portion of one army effectively collapses. That is currently the situation facing Russian forces between Kupyansk & Lyman. The situation is highly fluid & only those UAF personnel at the
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fore of this advance will know for certain what the extent of the advance is. As it stands, despite some increased Russian resistance in areas not impacted by the immediate breakthrough, the Russian forces have not reestablished a coherent defensive line.
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This doesn't mean the Russian army will melt away in its entirety. It's still a large, dangerous opponent whose capacity for defensive action demands respect even now. It does means that OpComEast has the initiative & Russia is suffering a defeat with strategic implications.
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The current operation has the potential to result in the kind of foot race witnessed by the Allies in 1944 when the Wehrmacht withdrew from France. Halt lines may be determined by UAF logistics & strategic considerations, rather than effective Russian resistance.
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