re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Another map of the advance

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1567963089819271170

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???????#Kharkiv Offensive Sep 8 22:00:
- UA liberated Balakliia, Broschivka, Ivanivka
- Kalynivka, Taranushyne very likely under Ukrainian control as well
- UA forces reached the outskirts of Shevchenkove and are reportedly advancing towards Kupyansk

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We really need some of the Russian supporters to come to tell us how we're misinterpreting all of this. The checks from the Kremlin must have stopped flowing.

Word is that LW got the banhammer, but I can't confirm.

This offensive is moving fast.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1567982199596630019

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Ukrainian forces are on the outskirts of Kupyansk according to many sources.

In the morning there will be good news maybe????

Godspeed to the Ukrainian warriors

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And an updated map

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1567979777801465860

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???This is Borivske, #Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainians are advancing at fast pace, likely closing on western outskirts of Kupyansk.
49.64322221430711, 37.33336361887403

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Wow - that's a lot of ground in a short timespan.

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Brief thoughts on UA Kharkiv offensive. It appears ambitious, intended to envelop Izyum and try to trap Russian forces there. Likely seeking to interdict ground lines of communication at Kupyansk. The Oskil river east of Izyum makes the pocket vulnerable for RU forces.

UA offensive looks to have made substantial gains, placing RU forces in a precarious position. From what one can tell, and these are early impressions, the advance made good use of armor in conjunction with infantry.

Russian forces appear to have been spread thinly, and mil leadership unprepared despite earlier evidence of UA buildup. I think it’s fair to assess that RU was caught by surprise with little in the way of reserves locally available.

Russia’s manpower issues, dependence on lower quality or mobilized LDNR forces, inability to conduct rotation, and struggles with retaining personnel are all issues at play here. In addition, Russian mil also deployed most of its better troops to Kherson and Zapo in August.

Despite the success of UA breakout by Kharkiv, I don’t see Kherson as a diversion. These appear to be interrelated offensives. Kherson likely intended as a more deliberate, sequenced advance. Kharkiv to take advantage of favorable conditions & attain a rapid breakthrough.

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Michael Kofman thread

Kofman is a top-quality poster.

ETA: Any ammo and artillery tubes the Russians get from North Korea will not arrive in time to stop this offensive.

If Kapyunsk falls, look for Ukraine to push to retake Severdonstsk.

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Are we witnessing the turning of the tide of the war, has Russia reached the highpoint and its all going backwards for them from here?

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I think what this does show is Russia’s days of taking large chunks of Ukraine are over, at least for now… they’re clearly overextended across a broad front they can’t adequately defend against coordinated attack… I’m sure Russia will counter at some point, but extending beyond their lines if 2-weeks ago?… don’t think so.

But does this signal the beginning of something bigger?… I doubt it but we’ll see.

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They need to follow up with reserves and armor though to not get encircled in that bulge. That is unless the Russians are truly spread that thin in men and artillery.

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I mentioned the dangers of getting pinched in a salient but now I think it is unlikely to just be a battalion commander that went wild due to low resistance but instead solid western intelligence that predicted the Russian's inability to properly counter the Ukranian's counter.

I am extremely cautious but it is beginning to look like this could be significant.

At first I thought their website was hacked, but multiple sources are running the same story.


Local St. Petersburg Deputies Urge Putin be Removed

The Council of the Smolninskoye municipal formation in St. Petersburg has adopted a desicion to call on deputies of the State Duma, Russia’s highest legislative body, to bring treason charges against President Putin in order to dismiss him from office.

This was announced by the Smolninskoe Ministry of Defense deputy, Dmitry Palyuga.

“The decision was supported by the majority of deputies present,” Palyuga said, without stating precisely how many deputies approved the decision.

He also posted the texts of the decision and the appeal, which are planned to be sent to the deputies of the State Duma.

It says that “young able-bodied” Russian citizens are dying during the war, the Russian economy is suffering, NATO is expanding to the east, and Ukraine is receiving new weapons (although Putin called the “demilitarization” of the country one of the goals of the invasion).

“We believe President Putin’s decision to launch it (“the special military operation”) harms the security of Russia and its citizens. Given that, we ask you, as a deputy of the State Duma, to come up with a proposal to bring charges of treason against the President of the Russian Federation to remove him from office,” the appeal states.

However, Palyuga did not specify how many deputies would receive the text of the appeal.

Kyiv Post

looks like alot of things have been in the motion for a while to lead up to this.


1) hearign for a while about southern offensive coming. lots of line of comm/supply line interdiction in the area

2) russia moving forces from north to south

3) finally offensive in south, Russia move more forces from north to south

4) delayed start in north, from south offensive. with south offensive a wide front offensive, vs north a focused offensive.

it appears ukraine is bypassing cities and pushing deep behind the lines. russian troops will need to make a decision to hold, and get encircled, come out of their defenses and try to counter attack/pincer attack, or fall back and retreat.

i think the windows on counterattacking have passed, so now is get encircled and hope for a counter attack and breakthrough or retreat.