re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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I would be surprised that next offensive somewhere north of Mariupol/Crimea maybe Melitipol

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I have been saying that Melitopol was the key to landbridge to Crimea and that Ukraine was going after it at some point for months now.

British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 08 September 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

In Kherson Oblast, Ukrainian brigades continue to conduct offensive operations. Ukraine has probably destroyed a military pontoon bridge at Darivka, which Russian forces had deployed after the nearby road bridge was severely damaged.

The Darivka crossing is one of the main routes between the northern and southern sectors of Russia's military presence along the Dnipro river. Ukraine's systematic precision targeting of vulnerable crossing points likely continues to impose pressure on Russian forces as they attempt to contain Ukrainian attacks: it slows their ability to deploy operational reserves and resupply materiel from the east.

Opening Remarks by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III at the Fifth Ukraine Defense Contact Group (As Prepared)
Sept. 8, 2022

Yesterday, President Biden approved the latest tranche of U.S. assistance to Ukraine, valued at up to $675 million.

And this is the Biden Administration's twentieth drawdown of equipment from U.S. stocks for Ukraine since last August.

The latest package includes more GMLRS, 105 millimeter howitzers, artillery ammunition and HARMs, Humvees, armored ambulances, anti-tank systems, small arms, and more.

And since our last meeting in July, many Allies and partners have come forward with their own important new deliveries of advanced radars, tanks, and armored personnel carriers.

The U.K. has sent a second tranche of M270 MLRS launchers and munitions. That brings British assistance to Ukraine to a total of 2.3 billion pounds.

Germany and Denmark have both also announced significant packages of military assistance. And let me especially thank Minister Lambrecht for Germany's recent commitment to boosting Ukraine's air defenses.

I'd also like to thank Poland for serving as a linchpin of our efforts to support the Ukrainians and for its generous donations of military equipment. Earlier this summer, for instance, Poland transferred three battalions of 155-millimeter self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Slovakia, North Macedonia, and several other countries have announced their own critical donations of tanks and other heavy armor.

So I'm looking forward to building on that momentum and finding more innovative ways for us all to support Ukraine's defenders.

Transcript of Opening Remarks

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Russ­ian oc­cu­pa­tion au­thor­i­ties in east­ern Ukraine said they would evac­u­ate women and chil­dren from the strate­gic city of Kupyansk, as ad­vanc­ing Ukrain­ian forces stepped up strikes there aimed at cut­ting Russ­ian sup­ply routes in the coun­try’s east.

The an­nounce­ment Thurs­day by the city’s Russ­ian-ap­pointed mayor, Vi­taly Ganchev, un­der­scores the progress of a Ukrain­ian of­fen­sive in its east.

Ukrain­ian of­fi­cials have largely kept silent about the ad­vance to the east of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s sec­ond city, but have hinted at gains. Russ­ian war blog­gers close to the Russ­ian mil­i­tary have said Ukrain­ian forces are mak­ing gains to­ward Kupyansk, a city of some 30,000 be­fore the war that is a crit­i­cal road hub for the re­sup­ply and move­ment of Russ­ian oc­cu­pa­tion forces.

Ukraine has seized the ini­tia­tive in the war for the first time in months with dual of­fen­sives in the south and east. In the south, Ukraine is seek­ing to cut off thou­sands of Russ­ian troops on the west­ern bank of the Dnipro River in and around the re­gional cap­i­tal of Kher­son.

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WSJ

Better get out while you can Ivan because the liberators are coming.


LINK

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1567858498502811650

Stidham - NOW your statement that "The entire Eastern front is collapsing" is true. You sir are an Oracle and I stand in awe of your powers of prognostication.

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1567863722718248961

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KHARKIV AXIS/ 0130 UTC 8 SEP/ UKR General Staff has reported that the offensive to the S & E of Kharkiv has developed into a MASSIVE breakthrough. Forward Edge of the Battle Area (FEBA) is moving rapidly, in some places, gains of 30-50 Km (18-30 MILESS) have been reported.

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Stidham8 and Lima Whiskey have been awfully quiet lately.

Appreciate the insight. Despite the successful strikes against Russian targets, Russia has more numbers than Ukraine. So there shouldn’t be unrealistic expectations that any of this would be easy.

Would Ukraine be better served by letting go of the idea that they can preserve the buildings of Kherson and just go for wide scale demolishing of the Russian shelters?

That’s why I was concerned about how many civilians were still in Kherson.

The biggest issue I see with the Russian army is that they are missing several critical components

1) Lack of NCO leadership
2) Lack of SKILLED commissioned leadership
3) Lack of modern logistics
4) Lack of training for their soldiers

I'm sure there are more; however, these appear to me to be the fundamental issues they have.

The biggest problem is they are top down and don’t give their junior officers any authority whatsoever and they really don’t have NCOs at all since most of their forces are conscripts and the ones that stay in the military go for a commission as an officer. Our military is so good because we give our NCOs a lot of room to run their units and on the battlefield lieutenants and captains can make decisions in real time that the Russians would have to run up the chain of command for approval. In our army new 2nd lieutenants are encouraged to delegate and learn from a seasoned NCO. Any Russian officer isn’t listening to shite a non-com has to say. Corruption is also rampant in their armed forces and is a real problem for them. Ukraine needs to push hard these next 2 weeks and then consolidate those gains by shoring up their lines with reserves and artillery before the rains come and make movement a real problem.