re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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I read your posts here. Every single one of them affirms something in the first person and, surprisingly, there is not a single photo proof. How so?

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Because I did not take my personal Iphone 13 to Ukraine with me. I took a cheap disposable phone with me, and I bought prepaid sim card when I got to the Polish and Ukrainian border. I used that phone to take the pictures and videos with. The people from the International Criminal Court that I gave the videos to did not just want a copy of the videos they wanted the original ones and the device it was filmed on. I got to keep the sim card and they reimbursed me the cost of buying a new phone, but they kept the phone with the pictures and videos is sitting in an evidence box somewhere. So I do not have the videos or pictures anymore.

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I'll drop it here again:

LINK

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Damn I wish you would have dropped that on here back in July. That would have been some good reading for my 48 hour journey from the USA to Ukraine. Also my wvu.edu email is still active so I was able to download it for free from researchgate.

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That would have been some good reading for my 48 hour journey from the USA to Ukraine

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Godspeed...I hope you fight with honor and dignity, brother

It did start construction on a major pipeline to China in JV with China last year but that will take not quite half of what was going to Europe. It will open in 2025. Russian pipelines are known for their leaking as they are not built to Western standards and safety factors. Typically during the Soviet Era it was joint efficiency in welds which were substandard using twice the amount of steel in wall thickness (it was about creating a market for their steel production increases to internal markets)

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Godspeed...I hope you fight with honor and dignity, brother

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I'm already back in the USA. I was only in Ukraine for 2 weeks, and I was not fighting. I was gaining experience in treating combat wounded since I am in the Army Reserve and they might need doctors who have seen combat wounds. I was just one of hundreds of American military members on the ground taking advantage of the opportunity to learn what a full scale war between 2 major militaries looks like.

There is little reporting of the war efforts around Kherson, which hints that they don’t want to report on those losses. I saw a WaPo article that quoted several Ukrainian soldiers describing how tough it has been.

This looks to be a long and drawn out battle with heavy casualties expected.

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It did start construction on a major pipeline to China in JV with China last year but that will take not quite half of what was going to Europe. It will open in 2025. Russian pipelines are known for their leaking as they are not built to Western standards and safety factors. Typically during the Soviet Era it was joint efficiency in welds which were substandard using twice the amount of steel in wall thickness (it was about creating a market for their steel production increases to internal markets)

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No shite. It was back in 2020 or maybe even 2019 that Russians announced that they were planning on taking Nord Stream 1 offline for an extended period of maintenance once Nord Stream 2 was up and running. Nord Stream 2 was supposed to be up and running by now. It would not surprise me at all that the reason why the Russians had cut back the flow of gas and now stopped the flow of gas through Nord Stream 1 is that there are maintenance issues that could not be fixed in a timely fashion, and Russia is using sanctions as cover to keep from admitting that it cannot fix its own pipeline. I'm not saying that Russia is not using gas a weapon to hurt the west or get NATO to stop supporting Ukraine, because I believe it is doing that to an extent. However, I am saying that I don't believe it is as simple as that. If Russia was using gas as a weapon to hurt the west and get NATO to stop supplying Ukraine then why is it still pumping gas to central Europe through its pipelines in Ukraine and the Balkans? After all it is eastern and central Europe that is actually helping Ukraine not western Europe.

Please show proof of a HIMARS strike on the nuclear power plant. Thanks. I don’t believe you. Are you just saying this because HIMARS and our M777 howitzers can actually hit what they aim at without having to fire 500 shells and is better than anything you can field against it?

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This looks to be a long and drawn out battle with heavy casualties expected.

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Outside of huge advantages in artillery and airpower (ie Desert Storm) dislodging dug in defenses is never quick and easy.

There are two other factors that weigh into this from the Russian side:

1. Rats caught in a corner fight like hell, rivers with no available bridges are just like walls for the Russians.

2. The doctrinal idea of steadfastness in defense:



page 48 in the Russian Way of War

They can't maneuver even when about to be trapped or are actually trapped without express senior commander orders even if they don't have communication with that officer. This is the sort of approach you must have to take with poorly trained soldiers with poorly trained junior officers but it means a lot of unnecessary deaths.


I don't know what the Ukes have on their mind but I have a guess. I think they decided not to pursue a front-wide counter-attack but instead concentrate their forces in the area of Kherson. Why Kherson? While it has strategic and morale value I think it has a lot to do with supply. Since Kherson was such a large city it has lots of roads in the non-occupied area the Ukrainians can use for their resupply. Once the bridges are cut off the area is a long and difficult resupply route for the Russians from either the north or the south. I imagine the hope is to push the Russians back to the west bank of the Dnipro across the entire front by winter. This appears unlikely BUT it is possible the entire Russian western front falls apart quickly once the Ukes get a foothold behind the Russian defenses. They just have to be in a position to act quickly and decisively once that opportunity avails itself because that door will close.

Unless or until one side obtains air superiority this is going to be a slow war of attrition and the winner will likely be based on the grit, determination, and will of both the winning army and the public behind them. When you aren't even willing to fly Frogfoots into the AO this is what you get, watching them use close air support at a standoff to lob munitions at the enemy just makes me shake my head, this is not how these are designed to be used.

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They might as well just save the jet fuel and not fly the sortie when they pull the pitch and ditch maneuver. The pilot’s first job in a ground attack aircraft like the A-10 or the Su-25 is to engage the ground threat. The Frogfoot pilot’s primary concern isn’t hitting the enemy though, it’s to get rid of their ordinance as fast and low as possible and then to get out of air defense range. You can’t even generally aim with that maneuver you’re just guessing at how far the bomb or rockets are going to fly before impact. This wouldn’t fly under any circumstance in the United States Air Force.

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It would not work in the USAF. However, it makes sense if you think about it in Russian. The Russian pilots get to fly, shoot at the enemy, return to base, and claim they killed a himars. They get a ribbon to wear on their uniform which will impress the widow of the poor ground pounder who died because his close air support was too afraid to actually get close.