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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/10/22 at 11:05 am to Chromdome35
Posted on 8/10/22 at 11:05 am to Chromdome35
quote:
The core issue here is that no media on either side is covering the war in detail. Any information that does come out via the normal media sources is questionable at best due to the limited amount of resources invested in on-the-ground reporting from the war. Thats why most of the people who are following the war are relying on nontraditional sources like Twitter, Telegram, and TikTok. I don't take any of them at face value, as everyone has an agenda these days; however, by aggregating traditional news sources, think tank sources, and nontraditional sources, one can begin to put together an understanding of what's happening on the ground. It is clear the intensity and pace of the Russian offensive has slowed. Russia is making small incremental gains in the Donbas region, but they have not made any breakthroughs. It is very clear that the Ukrainians are leveraging Western weapon systems to interdict Russian supply lines and attack Russian command and control facilities. In the first phase of the war, Russia tried to do too much too fast and failed miserably in the Northern parts of Ukraine, to the point they had to abandon that effort and focus their resources on the area where they felt like they could have the most success which took us into the 2nd phase of the war which in my opinion has recently ended and we're now moving into the 3rd phase. In the 2nd Phase of the war, Russia succeeded in taking a portion of the Donbas region but not all of it. At the same time, Ukraine pushed Russia away from Kharkiv and launched an offensive in southern Ukraine to retake Kherson. How many casualties were inflicted by either side during phase 2...we don't know, as neither side is reporting casualties. We do know that the Ukrainians have fought a fierce defensive battle and are trying to bleed Russia as much as they can; they have had some success, as numerous Russian sources have discussed whole units being wiped out. Again nothing concrete, just anecdotal evidence. Ukraine has suffered massive casualties as well, again they aren't reporting numbers so we are left to speculate and aggregate bits of information into a more cohesive picture. Russia hasn't achieved any of its stated goals, and Ukraine hasn't pushed Russia out...at best, the war is currently a stalemate. Think about it this way. If the war were to end today with the current front lines, Has it been worth the effort and expense for Russia? I don't think so. Ukraine would have lost another large chunk of its country, all but 2 of its ports and suffered massive damage to the rest of the country, certainly not a win for Ukraine. Thats why I call it a stalemate.
Probably the most accurate post in this thread.
1
Posted on 8/10/22 at 11:07 am to RLDSC FAN
The bridge in the area of Kakhovka Hydro Power Plant is no longer suitable for use – OC “South”
The Operational Command “South” reported that the bridge over the Kakhovka HPP is not operational.
This was reported by the OC “South” as of 11:00 on August 10 in the release on their Facebook page.
They emphasized that the missile hit was accurate and effective.
“Our fire control of the transport and logistics routes in the temporarily occupied territories of the Kherson region led to the reassuming the status of the bridge in the area of the Kakhovka HPP as unfit for use. The hit was accurate and effective,” the report said.
Ukrainian Military Portal
The Operational Command “South” reported that the bridge over the Kakhovka HPP is not operational.
This was reported by the OC “South” as of 11:00 on August 10 in the release on their Facebook page.
They emphasized that the missile hit was accurate and effective.
“Our fire control of the transport and logistics routes in the temporarily occupied territories of the Kherson region led to the reassuming the status of the bridge in the area of the Kakhovka HPP as unfit for use. The hit was accurate and effective,” the report said.
Ukrainian Military Portal
Posted on 8/10/22 at 11:10 am to cypher
quote:
The bridge in the area of Kakhovka Hydro Power Plant is no longer suitable for use – OC “South”
The Operational Command “South” reported that the bridge over the Kakhovka HPP is not operational.
This was reported by the OC “South” as of 11:00 on August 10 in the release on their Facebook page.
They emphasized that the missile hit was accurate and effective.
“Our fire control of the transport and logistics routes in the temporarily occupied territories of the Kherson region led to the reassuming the status of the bridge in the area of the Kakhovka HPP as unfit for use. The hit was accurate and effective,” the report said.
This post is a PERFECT example of the Fog of War I referenced in my previous post.
Ok, Ukraine has reported they took out the bridge at this power plant...So we are left to wonder is this an accurate statement or not? The only way we'll know is in the coming days, pictures, video, or satellite images will emerge to show the damage.
I don't think Ukraine did itself any favors in the early days of the war with all of the obvious propaganda they were pumping out, such as the Ghost of Kyiv or the super models picking up arms.
Posted on 8/10/22 at 11:12 am to Chromdome35
quote:
What part of my post is false? Russia is not making universal gains in the Donbas...They are clearly making small localized gains, but nothing major. Provide some fricking backup to your statements.
Learn how to read a map. I posted it earlier.
You don’t see anything about Ukraine losses because that’s part of the western propaganda strategy.
Posted on 8/10/22 at 11:25 am to Chromdome35
quote:
pictures, video, or satellite images will emerge to show the damage.
pictures and video are in the link I provided
This post was edited on 8/10/22 at 11:30 am
Posted on 8/10/22 at 11:26 am to Stidham8
Why does your map show major clashes well behind the Russian front yet Russia is "winning"? Learn how to read a fricking map
Posted on 8/10/22 at 11:30 am to Stidham8
quote:
ISW had to zoom way out of their frontline maps from May and June because Russia captured all of the territory.
Do you understand how scales work on maps?
If it's a smaller scale (i.e. 0-20km) it's more zoomed in than another map with a larger scale (i.e 0-40km). ITT you claimed the 0-40km was zoomed in more than the 0-20km map.
If you are trying, and failing, to complain that the same area isn't covered because they had to shift the map, that's not zooming in or out.
Posted on 8/10/22 at 11:37 am to Stidham8
Hey stidham, why don’t you post the explanation of the maps posted in your own link?
10 kms in 30 days! Wow that’s like 0.33 km/day or 1000 feet per day! That is a hell of an advance!!!!
You not only need to learn to read a map, but also learn how to read the stuff written in your link before posting.
quote:
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) The Ukrainian General Staff and local officials reported that Russian forces continued to shell settlements north, west, and south of Izyum and along the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border in the Slovyansk direction on August 9.[14] Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks east of Siversk on August 9. Ukrainian artillery forced Russian forces to retreat from an attempted ground assault in the Spirne area (13 km southeast of Siversk).[15] Russian forces similarly retreated after a reconnaissance-in-force effort near Ivano-Darivka (10 km southeast of Siversk) following Ukrainian bombardment.[16] Russian troops continued to shell Siversk and nearby settlements and targeted Hryhorivka with an airstrike.[17] Russian forces conducted several ground attacks in the Bakhmut area on August 9. The Ukrainian General Staff acknowledged that Russian forces led a partially successful advance in the direction of Vershyna (13 km southeast of Bakhmut) as well as failed offensive operations toward Yakovlivka, Bakhmut, and Zaitseve.[18] Ukrainian forces repelled Russian reconnaissance-in-force efforts around Pidhorodne (5 km northeast of Bakhmut), Vesele (10 km northeast of Soledar), Yakovlivka (6 km northeast of Soledar), Soledar, and Bakhmut.[19] Russian media amplified claims from Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Deputy Internal Minister Vitaly Kiselev that the LNR’s 6th Cossack Regiment has partially occupied and held portions of the Knauf Gips Donbas gypsum factory southeast of Soledar since an unspecified date.[20] ISW cannot independently verify these claims, however. The UK Ministry of Defense assessed that Russian forces have advanced only about 10 km in the Bakhmut direction over the past 30 days, and these incremental advances along the Bakhmut axis constitute Russia’s most successful front along the Donbas axis.[21] Russian forces continued shelling of and airstrikes on settlements in the Bakhmut direction on August 9.[22] Russian forces continued ground attacks northwest of Donetsk City on August 9. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted failed offensive operations near Krasnohorivka (16 km north of Donetsk City), Avdiivka (15 km north of Donetsk City), and Pisky (11 km northwest of Donetsk City).[23] Russian milbloggers continued to claim Russian control of Pisky on August 9 but there is insufficient basis to extend the assessed Russian control from central Pisky.[24] DNR officials also claimed unspecified gains in the Avdiivka direction, which ISW cannot confirm.[25] Ukrainian forces neutralized Russian reconnaissance-in-force attempts toward the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border near Velyka Novosilka and Vremivka (75 km west of Donetsk City).[26] Russian-led forces continued to target settlements across southwestern Donetsk with artillery and airstrikes.[27]
10 kms in 30 days! Wow that’s like 0.33 km/day or 1000 feet per day! That is a hell of an advance!!!!
You not only need to learn to read a map, but also learn how to read the stuff written in your link before posting.
This post was edited on 8/10/22 at 12:50 pm
Posted on 8/10/22 at 11:37 am to Chromdome35
quote:
The Fog of War
The core issue here is that no media on either side is covering the war in detail. Any information that does come out via the normal media sources is questionable at best due to the limited amount of resources invested in on-the-ground reporting from the war.
Thats why most of the people who are following the war are relying on nontraditional sources like Twitter, Telegram, and TikTok. I don't take any of them at face value, as everyone has an agenda these days; however, by aggregating traditional news sources, think tank sources, and nontraditional sources, one can begin to put together an understanding of what's happening on the ground.
It is clear the intensity and pace of the Russian offensive has slowed. Russia is making small incremental gains in the Donbas region, but they have not made any breakthroughs.
It is very clear that the Ukrainians are leveraging Western weapon systems to interdict Russian supply lines and attack Russian command and control facilities.
In the first phase of the war, Russia tried to do too much too fast and failed miserably in the Northern parts of Ukraine, to the point they had to abandon that effort and focus their resources on the area where they felt like they could have the most success which took us into the 2nd phase of the war which in my opinion has recently ended and we're now moving into the 3rd phase.
In the 2nd Phase of the war, Russia succeeded in taking a portion of the Donbas region but not all of it. At the same time, Ukraine pushed Russia away from Kharkiv and launched an offensive in southern Ukraine to retake Kherson. How many casualties were inflicted by either side during phase 2...we don't know, as neither side is reporting casualties. We do know that the Ukrainians have fought a fierce defensive battle and are trying to bleed Russia as much as they can; they have had some success, as numerous Russian sources have discussed whole units being wiped out. Again nothing concrete, just anecdotal evidence. Ukraine has suffered massive casualties as well, again they aren't reporting numbers so we are left to speculate and aggregate bits of information into a more cohesive picture.
Russia hasn't achieved any of its stated goals, and Ukraine hasn't pushed Russia out...at best, the war is currently a stalemate. Think about it this way. If the war were to end today with the current front lines, Has it been worth the effort and expense for Russia? I don't think so. Ukraine would have lost another large chunk of its country, all but 2 of its ports and suffered massive damage to the rest of the country, certainly not a win for Ukraine. Thats why I call it a stalemate.
100% this. in the end, russia will not be able to take keiv unless they go nuclear. SO russia will either make a deal or will slowly bleed and it might go on for years.
I predict we are still in the thread around christmas.
I think eventually ukraine "wins" if you want to call it that, in the fact that they will eventually bleed russia dry or bleed them to the point the domestic situation changes for Putin.
but win is very generous a term for what ukraine will be left with. It was already a corrupt shithole, not it will be a corrupt shithole with pretty much all infrastructure destroyed.
western aide will come, but they are goign to want assurances and see progress. So either Ukraine comes out as a true western country with much less corruption or it remains a complete shithole with no infrastructure.
Neither country wins in the long run. I still wish we would have stayed out of this, but if we are going to give aide, atleast we need to make sure russia collapses and this time we arent frickign idiots when it comes to befriending them and bringing them into the 21st century economic wise.
Posted on 8/10/22 at 11:51 am to WeeWee
quote:
10 kms in 30 days! Wow! You not only need to learn to read a map, but also learn how to read the stuff written in your link before posting
Posted on 8/10/22 at 12:17 pm to northshorebamaman
quote:
Is there a way to make this thread more truthful?
I only speak for myself.
The war in Ukraine is multi-faceted. It's a colonial war, inclusive of attrition... and also information.
I try to balance western media with Girkin's telegram channel. The retired FSB colonel. Supposedly some truth in his battlefield assessments as per War Translated. I discount his opinions because they primarily echo the FSB ultra-nationalist spiel, to wit: imperialistic in scope.
I currently support the military aid because I've seen the destruction of Ukrainian cities... the body parts of women, children, and the elderly strewn in the streets. It's an affront to my morality.
It doesn't matter to me that the U.S. has made missteps in the past. Iraq, Syria, et al. Our past failures shouldn't be the excuse to isolate. If so, the world would devolve into anarchy.
That being said, I'm also a realist. If it becomes evident that Ukraine cannot succeed, then we should indeed help them get to the negotiation table and incorporate what is left under the western umbrella. Because the argument would then become "that the U.S. is fighting Russia down to the last Ukrainian."
There isn't enough clarity as yet to make that judgement.
Posted on 8/10/22 at 12:18 pm to Stidham8
quote:
Latest ISW map. Russian advances throughout. Ukraine continues their retreat.
Keep in mind that this is coming from a D.C. think tank. The Russian advances are more so than they reluctantly publish.
This is the problem with the supposed “truth” of Russian advancements/Ukrainian losses from those in this thread who do so - that map shows almost zero movement and you’re trying to pass it off as Russian advancement. The map is largely neutral from the past 30+ days, which also aligns with most of what’s presented on the eastern front ITT.
If you can share a map showing legitimate advances that are large enough to actually be visual in comparison, we’re all ears. Otherwise, this is why a lot of the “pro-Russian” or “reality” posts are ignored or called Russian propaganda.
Posted on 8/10/22 at 12:19 pm to Stidham8
quote:
You don’t see anything about Ukraine losses because that’s part of the western propaganda strategy.
Are you suggesting that Fox, CNN, MSNBC, CBS and ABC (and all of the US newspapers) are intentionally not reporting negative news about Ukraine at the behest of the US government (or some other Western government)?
Posted on 8/10/22 at 12:22 pm to SneezyBeltranIsHere
Posted on 8/10/22 at 12:26 pm to Stidham8
quote:
Learn how to read a map. I posted it earlier.
Ummm....
The map clearly shows what I said, and the commentary provided by the map source directly opposes your statements.
Maybe you need to learn how to read a map.
I always remind myself that you are the guy who posted, "THE ENTIRE UKRAINIAN EASTERN FRONT HAS COLLAPSED!!!!!"
This post was edited on 8/10/22 at 12:28 pm
Posted on 8/10/22 at 1:18 pm to WeeWee
Stidham's reading comprehension might not be enough to pass a safety test, at 3rd grade level
Posted on 8/10/22 at 1:32 pm to SOSFAN
WaPo gets it wrong again. It was and is selling at $40 discount. WTF do you think that Saudi Arabia is buying it for their own refineries leaving their crude to for sales to other markets. This was all outlined in a more recent article from a group who actually knows about oil/bas from the well through refining and petrochemicals more than a month after this journalist (typically well educated idiots)
Also, China stopped buying Russian crude via pipeline so it has to be laden aboard ship instead. As for crude from Sakhalin Island (all the onshore processing modules built in Louisiana as well as the offshore Arctic Ice Classed drilling and loading platforms) is selling at a discount to West Texas Light so now the WTL is going to Europe.
After lifting costs and discounts, Russia is making about $200 million per day at most.
You need to try harder Vlad.
1/3 of Russia's overall income is from gas sales to Europe. It needs Europe far more than Europe needs Russia
Also, China stopped buying Russian crude via pipeline so it has to be laden aboard ship instead. As for crude from Sakhalin Island (all the onshore processing modules built in Louisiana as well as the offshore Arctic Ice Classed drilling and loading platforms) is selling at a discount to West Texas Light so now the WTL is going to Europe.
After lifting costs and discounts, Russia is making about $200 million per day at most.
You need to try harder Vlad.
1/3 of Russia's overall income is from gas sales to Europe. It needs Europe far more than Europe needs Russia
Posted on 8/10/22 at 1:36 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
Probably propaganda but I saw where the 3rd/1st Cavalry has derailed in Poland.
The 3rd Armored BCT/1st Cav Division has been in Poland for a couple of weeks.
Keep in mind $8 billion of the US aid package was for US deployments to Europe and intel of the theater.
Posted on 8/10/22 at 2:17 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
The two ports which can take ships the size which come to Baton Rouge are fine. The other ports do not have the water depth to take much larger than small ships which typically are uneconomical for Transatlantic trade. There was on berth at Azovstal which could take 20,000 DWT ships. This is quite unusual for ALL the ports on the Sea of Azov.
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