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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/31/22 at 8:06 pm to Kentucker
Posted on 7/31/22 at 8:06 pm to Kentucker
Today had a little excitement in the actual war news. Mykolaiv hit by more than 40 missiles and rockets in biggest attack since the war started
The link also has a region by region update.
The link also has a region by region update.
1
Posted on 7/31/22 at 8:28 pm to TBoy
Posted on 7/31/22 at 8:31 pm to DabosDynasty
I do find this interesting though
Blinkin in Kosovo a few days ago and all of a sudden they pop off with Serbia and the Serbs are talking about denazifying the Balkans.
Pelosi going to Taiwan, we’ll see if Biden admin heeds Xi’s stated redline, and potentially if Xi enforces redlines better than we have prior.
Blinkin in Kosovo a few days ago and all of a sudden they pop off with Serbia and the Serbs are talking about denazifying the Balkans.
Pelosi going to Taiwan, we’ll see if Biden admin heeds Xi’s stated redline, and potentially if Xi enforces redlines better than we have prior.
Posted on 8/1/22 at 3:42 am to DabosDynasty
ISW update
quote:
Russian forces have resumed localized ground attacks northwest and southwest of Izyum and may be setting conditions for offensive operations further west into Kharkiv Oblast or toward Kharkiv City.
quote:
Crimean occupation officials obliquely accused Ukraine of orchestrating a drone attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters in occupied Sevastopol on July 31, but Ukrainian officials denied responsibility for the attack.[2]
quote:
The Russian government may be complicating international efforts to discern the nature of an unidentified July 28 kinetic event on the Olenivka penal colony.
quote:
Key Takeaways
The Kremlin has not responded to the International Red Cross (ICRC) request to access the Olenivka prison as of July 31, hindering the international investigation efforts.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks southwest and northwest of Izyum, consistent with ISW’s assessment that Russian forces may be setting conditions for advances northwest of the current Izyum-Slovyansk line.
Russian forces continued ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk, northeast of Siversk, and to the east and south of Bakhmut.
Russian forces made marginal gains in the Avdiivka area and continued ground attacks towards Avdiivka and Pisky.
Russian authorities began recruiting volunteers for the Nevsky and Ladoga Battalions in Leningrad Oblast, Russia.
Russian occupation authorities continued to prepare for a referendum in Kherson Oblast and took measures to depict support for Russian control of the occupied territories.
Posted on 8/1/22 at 5:52 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 1 August 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Over the last four days, Russia has continued to attempt tactical assaults on the Bakhmut axis, northeast of Donetsk, only managing to make slow progress. As briefed by the Ukrainian authorities last week, Russia is likely reallocating a significant number of its forces from the northern Donbas sector to southern Ukraine.
Russia is probably adjusting the operational design of its Donbas offensive after failing to make a decisive operational breakthrough under the plan it had been following since April. It has likely identified its Zaporizhzhia front as a vulnerable area in need of reinforcement.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 1 August 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Over the last four days, Russia has continued to attempt tactical assaults on the Bakhmut axis, northeast of Donetsk, only managing to make slow progress. As briefed by the Ukrainian authorities last week, Russia is likely reallocating a significant number of its forces from the northern Donbas sector to southern Ukraine.
Russia is probably adjusting the operational design of its Donbas offensive after failing to make a decisive operational breakthrough under the plan it had been following since April. It has likely identified its Zaporizhzhia front as a vulnerable area in need of reinforcement.
Posted on 8/1/22 at 7:18 am to DabosDynasty
quote:If Pelosi doesn't go to Taiwan - and she has never said she would - it would turn this into an excellent piece of Chinese theater. A win-win for Xi, the US and our allies. Not so much for Putin however.
Pelosi going to Taiwan, we’ll see if Biden admin heeds Xi’s stated redline, and potentially if Xi enforces redlines better than we have prior.
Posted on 8/1/22 at 7:21 am to cypher
Couple of things I’m hearing; the grain shipments won’t be attacked by Russia or its game on for the Black Sea Fleet and the Bridge in Crimea. Another battalion won’t go to fight/reinforce in Ukraine, Intercepts have the 15k kettled troops being told they are on their own and their commanders claiming that they are not, then the average RU knowing that that is bullshite and realizing they are more than likely going to be killed or surrender. There are lots of soldiers phoning back to Russia explaining situation and asking for last will and testament type stuff. Folks back home can’t believe they will be abandoned etc…Russia spending 900 million per day so that they will be under China’s thumb for a hundred years. Ukraine being very strategic and cautious about offensive not because of personnel or materials but because they don’t want to overextend at certain points thus making the same mistake RU has made over and over. HIMARS and Artillery doing work day in day out with daily arrivals to bolster ammo and weaponry. Meanwhile because of the efficiency of targeted destruction of Ammo dumps/trains shelling of UA positions has become a once a day occurrence where it was at one time almost not stop for long stretches. Something beyond Harpoon missiles has shifted the equation with the Black Sea fleet and the Bridge in Crimea, my guys are being unusually tight lipped about it but Russia is being a lot more conciliatory. Also RU artillery Guys are jealous of HIMARS accuracy calling their own shells “Blind Pigs” that occasionally by sheer luck find a targeted position.
This post was edited on 8/1/22 at 7:33 am
Posted on 8/1/22 at 8:32 am to LSUCanFAN
Good post. But I am curious about this statement:
Do the Russians think it’s currently not game on for the Black Sea Fleet or the Bridge in Crimea? So basically the Ukrainians are using restraint now, but would go no holds barred/ scorched earth on Crimea?
I personally think these POWs being killed and the repeated shellings of civilian areas would have the Ukrainians already ready for revenge. So I have no idea if they would concede any territory in peace talks.
quote:
Couple of things I’m hearing; the grain shipments won’t be attacked by Russia or its game on for the Black Sea Fleet and the Bridge in Crimea.
Do the Russians think it’s currently not game on for the Black Sea Fleet or the Bridge in Crimea? So basically the Ukrainians are using restraint now, but would go no holds barred/ scorched earth on Crimea?
I personally think these POWs being killed and the repeated shellings of civilian areas would have the Ukrainians already ready for revenge. So I have no idea if they would concede any territory in peace talks.
Posted on 8/1/22 at 8:57 am to LSUCanFAN
quote:
Russia spending 900 million per day so that they will be under China’s thumb for a hundred years.
It's far more than that. Russia is spending a ton to prop up its economy, including buying rubbles to keep the exchange rate high as well as propping up companies such as Gazprom which are losing money due lack of exports. The $10 billion for Nord Stream II is not being paid for with revenues from its use, as an example.
Then there is loss of workforce from being employed by the military. Now if people are enlisting due being laid off from work, are these the most able? Russia already had a lazy/incompetent workforce before this began. Are their monetary packages even being fully paid?
Since Russia is using forced conscription for males up to 65 years of age, regardless of medical condition, from the "DPR" areas without any training before being sent to the front as cannon fodder, when does attrition make it only Russians are fighting?
I get that Ukraine has its own conscription, along with all the volunteers who have been at the front for months. At least those conscripts have gone through training. Many of the volunteers learned on the fly. Luckily for Ukraine, lots of well trained foreign SOF types, with experience as SAS, Para, SEALS, Rangers, etc... volunteered.
No doubt that Ukraine's economy is wrecked beyond recognition The EU will have to foot some sort of Marshall Plan to get it on its feet post war. Russia will have to rely on China for capital investment, maybe India, but I doubt that India is interesting other than investing in India. Though India needs the natural gas, I don't see India investing in E&P in Russia mainly due the Himalayas are standing in the way of a pipeline and running a pipeline through Iran, Afghanistan and PAKISTON to India just isn't happening.
Posted on 8/1/22 at 9:02 am to AGGIES
The grain is leaving on Turkish flagged ships. Any attacks is grounds for Turkey to shut down all exports from Russia via the Black Sea. Do you think that Xi or Modi would allow the flow of cheaper than dirt oil imports be impeded by Poontang?
Posted on 8/1/22 at 9:06 am to LSUCanFAN
#Russian media showed how their methods to cross the #Dnipro river in #Kherson now work.
Twitter video
Twitter video
Posted on 8/1/22 at 9:12 am to cypher
quote:
#Russian media showed how their methods to cross the #Dnipro river in #Kherson now work.
Posted on 8/1/22 at 9:16 am to Obtuse1
Somebody is working on the bridge though. I would be curious to know how well the repairs are engineered.
Posted on 8/1/22 at 9:21 am to Obtuse1
quote:
Somebody is working on the bridge though. I would be curious to know how well the repairs are engineered.
That should depend on any structural damage as opposed to only deck/roadway damage. Steel plates, of say 3/4 or 1 inch thick, can cover each of most of the holes that I have seen in previous photos. That HIMARS has already zeroed in would certainly make anal sphincters cramp after continuous tightening while crossing the bridge will definitely be in play
This post was edited on 8/1/22 at 9:24 am
Posted on 8/1/22 at 9:34 am to CitizenK
quote:
That should depend on any structural damage as opposed to only deck/roadway damage. Steel plates, of say 3/4 or 1 inch thick, can cover each of most of the holes that I have seen in previous photos.
The issue is the beam damage I highlighted earlier from a damage video. I did speculate that it could have left one lane of the bridge usable based on the video of that specific area. Plate steel would work fine for the "potholes" unless or until while the bridge is "breathing" in use it continues to break up more of the deck in the vicinity which is almost certainly riddled with stress fractures in the concrete and has lost the integrity provided by the reinforcing steel.
[/img]Posted on 8/1/22 at 9:36 am to Obtuse1
quote:
I would be curious to know how well the repairs are engineered.
Probably a dumb question...
Is it possible to repair snapped cables and rebar without rebuilding an entire span?
Posted on 8/1/22 at 9:37 am to CitizenK
quote:
No doubt that Ukraine's economy is wrecked beyond recognition The EU will have to foot some sort of Marshall Plan to get it on its feet post war.
The EU should be paying now, but we are.
Guess who will foot Ukraines recovery? You, and I.
Posted on 8/1/22 at 9:38 am to AGGIES
quote:quote:
Couple of things I’m hearing; the grain shipments won’t be attacked by Russia or its game on for the Black Sea Fleet and the Bridge in Crimea.
Do the Russians think it’s currently not game on for the Black Sea Fleet or the Bridge in Crimea? So basically the Ukrainians are using restraint now, but would go no holds barred/ scorched earth on Crimea?
I read this as more that the US is showing restraint, but will give Ukraine the weapons needed to take out the Black Sea fleet and bridge if Russia attacks grain shipments. As of now Ukraine does not have those weapons. But that could change.
Posted on 8/1/22 at 9:45 am to Obtuse1
Russian MoD claims they destroyed 2 HIMARS and released convincing evidence to prove the assertion.
Apparently, they are the M142 MkII systems that are know as the MagicMARS
Link to video of a building being targeted.
HIMARS is doing enough work Lockheed Martin is being targeted for cyber attack:
Newsweek
Apparently, they are the M142 MkII systems that are know as the MagicMARS
Link to video of a building being targeted.
HIMARS is doing enough work Lockheed Martin is being targeted for cyber attack:
quote:
Russian hackers have launched "a new type of attack" on American military company Lockheed Martin, which makes the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) that the U.S. has supplied to Ukraine, a pro-Moscow news website said.
The Kremlin-supporting Life website reported that the cyberattack by the Killnet and Killmilk hacker groups took place at 7 a.m. on Monday. The groups said the rocket systems - credited by the Ukrainians with shifting the balance in the war against Russia - had been responsible for thousands of deaths.
"The notorious HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, supplied to Ukraine by the aforementioned military-industrial corporation, allow the criminal authorities of the Kiev regime to kill civilians, destroy the infrastructure and social facilities of the still temporarily occupied Ukraine," the hackers said in a statement reported by Life.
quote:
The hackers said Lockheed Martin "is the actual sponsor of world terrorism, is responsible" for thousands of deaths. Newsweek has contacted Lockheed Martin for comment. Newsweek did not see evidence that Lockheed Martin sponsors terrorism.
A Russian military expert claimed on state television on July 28 that Russia had come up with a "secret development" that allows it to hack into the HIMARS systems.
On July 22, members of Killnet said: "We are using a new type of attack, we have no equal in this area. This is a new technology that we are using for the first time against the world's largest arms manufacturer—Lockheed Martin," Life reported at the time.
Lockheed Martin's website describes it as a global security and aerospace company.
Newsweek
Posted on 8/1/22 at 9:58 am to Tigris
quote:
I read this as more that the US is showing restraint, but will give Ukraine the weapons needed to take out the Black Sea fleet and bridge if Russia attacks grain shipments. As of now Ukraine does not have those weapons. But that could change.
Ah ok, could be that perspective.
There has to be a calculus of whether they are being used effectively (they are) vs are the Russians able to find them and take them out of action (looks like a couple have been hit already).
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