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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/21/22 at 12:45 pm to DabosDynasty
Posted on 7/21/22 at 12:45 pm to DabosDynasty
A friend in the know claims that Ukraine hacked the FSB files containing the names of all Germans on the Russian payroll. It may no longer be easy for them to play with Putin.
0
Posted on 7/21/22 at 12:46 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:i remember this
This is the dude that used to call people pedos if he was losing an argument
Posted on 7/21/22 at 12:47 pm to DabosDynasty
They're plenty mad at Germany as it is. Southern Europe is still resentful about the forced austerity regimes the Germans imposed following the financial crisis and now the southern Europeans get their chance to wag the finger at Germany for relying on cheap Russian gas instead of diversifying more. Now the European Commission is making noises about mandatory 15% energy cuts in the fall/winter even in places like Spain that gets gas from the US may be on the hook, so there's vulnerability in the coalition.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 12:50 pm to DabosDynasty
Russia can choke down wells but must maintain flow or else wells sand up if shut in for more than a short period of time. It took a decade to get flow back to what it was in the late 1980's in Russia
Posted on 7/21/22 at 12:53 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
They're plenty mad at Germany as it is. Southern Europe is still resentful about the forced austerity regimes the Germans imposed following the financial crisis and now the southern Europeans get their chance to wag the finger at Germany for relying on cheap Russian gas instead of diversifying more.
That’s exactly where my mind is. They haven’t forgotten. The Greeks, Italians, Spaniards. As for the Greeks, if I remember correctly, they got some help from the Russians during the austerity years though. But then you also have the Greece/Turkey dynamic with Turkey playing both sides of the present issue.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 12:55 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
Turkey playing both sides of the present issue.
Erdogan left Vlad hanging at the big meet, left him standing there for a whole minute in front of the cameras.
Not good when Erdogan shits in your mouth.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 12:59 pm to Lakeboy7
But still met with him and Iran, also a statement.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 1:01 pm to Gcockboi
quote:
frick you, you anti-American commie Putin Bot
This is like reading a middle school girls journal.
Anyone who doesn't believe the media narrative is a putin bot. The very average American, ladies and gents.
There are legit reasons to
1) Doubt the news coming out the war
2) Be extremely wary of our involvement.
But you do you. Rah rah rah!
Posted on 7/21/22 at 1:10 pm to DabosDynasty
The mostly likely outcome is still some situation where there's eventually an uneasy peace after Ukraine claws back some of its territory & in which Putin loses his remaining energy leverage as Europe diversifies and Russia hooks up its gas to China/India while keeping a slice of Ukraine while the young Ukrainian keeps its sovereignty (a little like Russia/Finland in the Winter War), but unlike with Finland, Ukraine would be more overtly aligned with the west, getting armed to the teeth to keep Russia at bay, so something like the Korean war except the "people's republics" will get annexed.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 2:02 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
Looks like Ukraine is going to get F-16’s after all.
Yes they are
Here is a very interesting thread from a retired DoD budget analyst/auditor. If you are interested in the Pentagon budget wars, this is a pretty good place to start.
He says that there are currently large "Deconfliction factions" within the Pentagon. Deconfliction meaning that we shouldn't get involved because we can't use our air force (Read: F-35) due to NATO restrictions. Therefore, without these planes it's not a fight Ukraine can win. I don't have to tell you which branch represents this faction almost entirely.
But now that the HIMARS and drones have proven to be nearly as effective as the F-35 and far, FAR cheaper, this faction sees the future of their precious stealth fighter budget under serious threat. Thus they have reversed their position on Ukraine and want in with F-16's asap. Just to prove that you can get the same results at eight times the cost. Which is the way the Pentagon thinks.
Also an interesting concept of a new naval drone platform for the South China Sea. The future is here: cheap missile systems with high accuracy, long range and high performance mobility and reloading platforms along with a large array of drones. Drones of differing sizes and missions. All very effective and very cheap.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 2:04 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
This is like reading a middle school girls journal.
Yet you pop in every day.
quote:
Anyone who doesn't believe the media narrative is a putin bot. The very average American, ladies and gents.
Thankfully you are here to set us straight.
quote:
There are legit reasons to 1) Doubt the news coming out the war 2) Be extremely wary of our involvement. But you do you. Rah rah rah!
And yet you never bring any news or any facts regarding the war.
For a guy as smart as you that should be easy, yet you struggle. Why is that?
Posted on 7/21/22 at 2:43 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
The mostly likely outcome is still some situation where there's eventually an uneasy peace after Ukraine claws back some of its territory & in which Putin loses his remaining energy leverage as Europe diversifies and Russia hooks up its gas to China/India while keeping a slice of Ukraine while the young Ukrainian keeps its sovereignty (a little like Russia/Finland in the Winter War), but unlike with Finland, Ukraine would be more overtly aligned with the west, getting armed to the teeth to keep Russia at bay, so something like the Korean war except the "people's republics" will get annexed.
Probably, but who/what makes up the energy gap in Europe? Nuclear takes a long time to get to a substantial level of power generation in their energy profile. Wind and solar will fail. As things “normalize” geopolitically Russias offered discount should shrink therefore closing the gap between their margin/barrel and the rest of the exporters, it would just be going to non-European sources and then Europe buys American/ME O&G.
Also think it’s likely they’ll find out they won’t have a choice but to beg for Russian O&G in near term as they cannot shift on a dime and nobody can make up for it on a dime either. Not making the sanctions argument, just thinking through where European energy will come from in reality in the near term given their populations won’t exactly be thrilled about blackouts and reduced domestic consumption, economic contraction caused by lacking energy to produce at full capacity.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 2:45 pm to DabosDynasty
Trump would see the opportunity here and get our companies some business.
Biden won’t do anything.
Biden won’t do anything.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 2:52 pm to doubleb
quote:
Trump would see the opportunity here and get our companies some business.
Biden won’t do anything.
Nothing is stopping Trump from organizing businesses right now. For that matter, there's nothing stopping you or me either.
But if your intent was to inject Trump for some political reason, perhaps take that somewhere else?
Posted on 7/21/22 at 3:00 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
Probably, but who/what makes up the energy gap in Europe?
Seems like the Germans are counting on LNG. Supposedly they will have 5 floating LNG terminals on line by the end of 2023. The first 2 operational this winter. Good news for LNG exporters if it happens.
I have no idea if the capacity of 5 terminals can meet their demands.
This post was edited on 7/21/22 at 3:02 pm
Posted on 7/21/22 at 3:15 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
This is like reading a middle school girls journal.
Anyone who doesn't believe the media narrative is a putin bot. The very average American, ladies and gents.
There are legit reasons to
1) Doubt the news coming out the war
2) Be extremely wary of our involvement.
But you do you. Rah rah rah!
Thanks Roger for helping me think through all of this. It's good to have people like you to help.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 3:22 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
But still met with him and Iran, also a statement.
Because they are also operating as rivals in another theater. Erdogan is a more shrewd politician than people give him credit for, and I wouldn't be surprised if somehow he came away with Western help with the development of their own 5th-gen fighter or with the desperately desired Patriot missile systems that the US has refused to sell to Turkey since 2000. Those are longshots, but I'm just saying the West has far more leverage with Turkey than people think. There are a whole host of things they could offer Turkey to ensure they remain on-board.
Posted on 7/21/22 at 3:25 pm to DabosDynasty
Agree with cypher that LNG seems like what they'd try to ramp up ASAP (and not even just for energy, they need gas as a feed stock for petroleum products), but I think the greens will have to give in on nukes. I heard general consideration on a world level of various places that were transitioning off coal having to go back on, which they obviously won't want to do either given the extra carbon, but I guess we'll see if they see the Russian threat being acute enough to do something like that.
This post was edited on 7/21/22 at 3:32 pm
Posted on 7/21/22 at 3:56 pm to TigerDoc
What are German relations with African oil producers like Nigeria and Algiers
Posted on 7/21/22 at 4:17 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
Probably, but who/what makes up the energy gap in Europe?
A network of pipeline built over decades just doesn't go poof and reproduced to the east of the vastness of Siberia.
Then there is the terminal in the Arctic which isn't any more ice free than the last 50 years. It is still only a two week window annually to bring supplies to the North Slope in Alaska. So its cargoes all point west where the Gulf Stream still keeps the water somewhat ice free
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