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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 7/11/22 at 10:00 am to
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16226 posts
Posted on 7/11/22 at 10:00 am to
It helps to have more FSB secret police and members of the military in keeping the public in check.

I think that reality is that Western thought shared via internet enlightens enough of Russia's public and why Putin so often refers to the West as being all LGBT, homosexuals, and Russia is unified under one religion and one language. The odd part about this is how much of the military is made up of moslems. So which religion is this one religion, the compromised Russian Orthodox church or Islam?

Southpark could make a great episode of this
Posted by TigerDoc
Texas
Member since Apr 2004
11918 posts
Posted on 7/11/22 at 10:52 am to
Russian struggles and casualties are to this point serving to justify maximalist demands to the public. It's hard to say what the breaking point is, but it's much more likely if Russia starts moving significantly backward and it's likely to come from frustrated security-state types of the ilk of Girkin (which to touch on Coeur's really good post is probably the group that Putin is most nervous about). And this makes it interesting that the Kremlin hasn't squelched Girkin yet. I think if things do start to go bad for Russia, we may hear less publicly from him.
This post was edited on 7/11/22 at 11:15 am
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 7/11/22 at 11:46 am to


Another example of planned forced civilian conscription against their own.
Posted by TigerDoc
Texas
Member since Apr 2004
11918 posts
Posted on 7/11/22 at 12:05 pm to
That's what they've done in the previously occupied Donbas broadly and would do in Kherson if they could control the population, but Kherson is intact and with the Ukrainian army viable nearby won't be putting up with forced conscription.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8192 posts
Posted on 7/11/22 at 12:05 pm to
An interesting article on Russian Artillery tactics.
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/07/the-secrets-of-russias-artillery-war-in-ukraine/
quote:

“The generally mediocre performance of Russia’s ground forces has been increasingly offset by their leveraging of massed artillery fires to facilitate a slow and methodical advance. Sustained bombardment has progressively displaced the local population and levelled the settlements and infrastructure that were being defended, forcing the Ukrainian military to abandon territory after it is devastated.

quote:

Russian artillery has an over 3:1 firepower advantage

Russia doesn’t actually have a huge quantitative advantage in combat troops compared to Ukraine (because it’s not fully mobilized)—but it does have much more artillery, and is generating a lot more artillery fires.

According to the report, Russian howitzers are expending 20,000 shells daily on average, compared to 6,000 fired by Ukraine. The ratio for rocket artillery and ballistic missiles launches is even worse. And Ukraine still risks exhausting its supply of Soviet-standard 152-millimeter shells even faster than Russia does.


Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8192 posts
Posted on 7/11/22 at 12:10 pm to
This article talks about something we've discussed in this thread...NATO ammo stockpiles.

Is the West running out of ammunition to supply Ukraine?
War on industrial scale exposes limited stockpiles and issues created by focus on high tech weapons


https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2022/07/11/is-the-west-running-out-of-ammunition-to-supply-ukraine/?utm_source=ground.news&utm_medium=referral

quote:

In May, when Washington ordered 1,300 Stinger anti-air missiles to replace those sent to Ukraine, the chief executive of Raytheon, the defence company that makes them, replied: “It’s going to take us a little bit of time.”

Paris, meanwhile, has sent 18 Caesar howitzers to Kyiv — a quarter of its total stock of the high-tech artillery — but it will take French company Nexter about 18 months to make new ones.

The Ukraine war has exposed the skimpiness of western defence stockpiles — especially of unglamorous but crucial supplies such as artillery shells that have been the mainstay of fighting. Lack of production capacity, labour shortages and supply chain snafus — especially computer chips — mean long lead times to replenish them.


quote:

Those scarcities may now be impinging on the West’s ability to quartermaster Kyiv’s war effort. Total annual US production of 155mm artillery shells, for example, would last less than two weeks of combat in Ukraine, according to Alex Vershinin, a US procurement expert who says the conflict marks “the return of industrial warfare”.


quote:

As for the guided multiple-launch rocket systems made by Lockheed Martin that Kyiv has pleaded for so it can launch strikes behind enemy lines, the US has dispatched about a third of its total stock of 20,000-25,000 missiles.
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 7/11/22 at 12:17 pm to
1. That’s a bit concerning
2. Sounds like a good way to create some good paying jobs and help stimulate the economy in this recession so we can replace and bolster stockpiles ASAP.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42802 posts
Posted on 7/11/22 at 12:36 pm to
quote:

1. That’s a bit concerning
2. Sounds like a good way to create some good paying jobs and help stimulate the economy in this recession so we can replace and bolster stockpiles ASAP


You know China is watching all of this too snd I’d bet they are pumping out shells as I type.
Posted by AGGIES
Member since Jul 2021
12689 posts
Posted on 7/11/22 at 12:41 pm to
quote:

I don't know if its the inability of Ukraine to deliver the weapons/ammo where it is needed or if the weapons/ammo are just not there because the west has not delivered them.


In that case, an “operational pause” with Russia not advancing their position is exactly what Ukraine needs right now. Gives them more time to receive stockpiles from allies and to shore up their supply lines.

Ukraine has to feel like their strikes against Russian ammo depots have been most effective.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16226 posts
Posted on 7/11/22 at 12:53 pm to
This is actually part of what Russia has always done, lots and lots of artillery. They also used massive barrages as deception to make Germany think that is where they were massing forces for frontal attack.

Russia has also had a lot of misfired shells due length of time in storage. The same for rockets
This post was edited on 7/11/22 at 12:55 pm
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 7/11/22 at 1:03 pm to
quote:

You know China is watching all of this too snd I’d bet they are pumping out shells as I type.


Was exactly my thought and curiosity on their stockpiles from Vietnam and having not been in a hot war since. Plus the NK factor, I mean they’re old but point remains just as it does for Russian artillery stockpile advantage.
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5765 posts
Posted on 7/11/22 at 2:05 pm to
Decently influential Russian commentator Dmitriyev (100k+ telegram followers) on why suggested solutions to Ukrainian missile strikes are fruitless.

He believes "decentralisation" of powers that comes with distributing ammunitions is contrary to Russia's army and gov-t nature.

Translated Telegram:

Another thing regarding the effectiveness of Ukrainian rocket strikes. Many write about how to minimise losses from them. Aside from strenghtening air defence it is suggested to disperse ammunition storages, avoid bringing armoured vehicles to one base, avoid lining up helicopters in one line, and decentralise everything in general.

But you see what the problem is - you can decentralise, but this will be a completely different army, not the Russian-Soviet army. Decentralisation is contrary to the structure of not just the army itself but the whole state structure in general.

Indeed, along with distribution of ammunitions to different stockpiles, along with moving vehicles to various forests, also the powers must be transferred down - to these forests and stockpiles. But these powers for hundreds of years have been carefully focused in one location. And that is how the authority preserved itself. But here - decentralisation. This is worse than military losses.

- translation by @mdmitri91
Posted by PrecedentedTimes
Member since Dec 2020
3128 posts
Posted on 7/11/22 at 2:22 pm to
Things like this have been pointed out by both military nerds and sociologists since before the war. Armies reflect their society of origin. Countries that allow no dissent end up losing wars because their structure becomes paralyzed with indecision rather than adapting.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45781 posts
Posted on 7/11/22 at 2:43 pm to
quote:

The Russian populace is known for their sheep-like lack of agency. They’ve always been treated like shite by their government and except for the uprising in 1917, haven’t done anything about it in 300 years. Yes, that was a big exception but outside of that their history is one of total compliance with their government no matter how badly they are treated. So I just don’t understand Putin’s reservations in this regard.


From my friends in St Petersburg. There is a lot of anger that is under the surface. Young people are pissed that their ability to get degrees and move to the USA, Europe, and the Middle East has been screwed up by covid and now the war. Patriotism is high among the older people but the young are apathetic. They are not worried about getting in trouble for not responding to calls for troops because they know they can always pay off their recruiting/conscript officials if Russia does do a mass mobilization. The older people who are patriotic and still young enough to serve are too fat to serve. I don’t expect the Russian populace to revolt, but at the same time it would not surprise me.
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5765 posts
Posted on 7/11/22 at 3:03 pm to
quote:

Things like this have been pointed out by both military nerds and sociologists since before the war.


At least one Russian is also acknowledging it. I wonder how many Russians would agree with him.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16226 posts
Posted on 7/11/22 at 3:57 pm to
It seems to me that older people had pride in the perceived power of the USSR, though living in squalor compared to the West.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105543 posts
Posted on 7/11/22 at 4:09 pm to
quote:

Another thing regarding the effectiveness of Ukrainian rocket strikes. Many write about how to minimise losses from them. Aside from strenghtening air defence it is suggested to disperse ammunition storages, avoid bringing armoured vehicles to one base, avoid lining up helicopters in one line, and decentralise everything in general.

But you see what the problem is - you can decentralise, but this will be a completely different army, not the Russian-Soviet army. Decentralisation is contrary to the structure of not just the army itself but the whole state structure in general.

Indeed, along with distribution of ammunitions to different stockpiles, along with moving vehicles to various forests, also the powers must be transferred down - to these forests and stockpiles. But these powers for hundreds of years have been carefully focused in one location. And that is how the authority preserved itself. But here - decentralisation. This is worse than military losses.


Wouldn't it be crazy if Russia accidentally implemented reforms while trying trying achieve its imperialistic goals.
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5765 posts
Posted on 7/11/22 at 5:04 pm to
Fireworks at Russian ammunition dump in Nova Kakhovka

3:07 PM · Jul 11, 2022·Twitter

LINK twitter video

wish I understood Ukrainian....

Another Perspective
This post was edited on 7/11/22 at 5:07 pm
Posted by AGGIES
Member since Jul 2021
12689 posts
Posted on 7/11/22 at 5:28 pm to
Wow, that thing went boom.

There’s been quite a few of these lately. If the Ukrainians can draw down that artillery advantage the Russians have, they’ll be feeling pretty good.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105543 posts
Posted on 7/11/22 at 5:36 pm to
How are y'all getting around the Twitter login popup? I almost registered with a burner email but they wanted my phone number so I noped out of there.
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