re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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The factories also don't have critical parts manufacturing capability without the West

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This reminded me of this story from middle of June

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Avtovaz halted the production of its Lada brand in March and furloughed many of its workers because it was not able to acquire certain parts due to the sanctions. But, after the Russian government's decision to slash safety regulations, assembly lines roared back to life.

As a result, the company’s affordable four-door passenger car Lada Granta, will no longer feature air bags, anti-lock braking systems, electronic stability control or emergency retraction locks on seat belts. It also fails to fulfill the 21st century emission standards adopted by many of Russia’s neighbors.

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LINK

Slovakia sending Ukraine their entire fighter fleet plus parts to keep their own SU-25 ground attack planes in the air. Slovakia only had a fleet of 12 MIG-29 Fulcrums but they have given them every single one. Might not be much but it helps and shows Slovakia is behind Ukraine. I’m sure somewhere down the line they will get some of our older f-16 fighters to replace what they gave Ukraine but it won’t hurt our Air Force as they will be planes due for the boneyard for storage. We have a lot of f-16’s so I’m good with it. I’d rather keep our F-15 and f-18 aircraft over the f-16.

****Slovakia will not be receiving older f-16 aircraft but rather the brand new f-16 block 70 type that they have already purchased from the U.S. until delivery of those aircraft the Czech Air Force will defend Slovakia’s airspace. Bulgaria also sent 14 SU-25 ground attack planes in late April disassembled but are now put back together and are in the air. The SU-25 parts from Slovakia must be to help for repairs on the planes Bulgaria sent along with the 15 or so Ukraine already had. Bulgaria is next in line behind Slovakia to receive the new f-16 block 70 type also. All the old Soviet block countries are switching to western weapons.

If this is true, the Russians are really sucking wind to keep this going without full mobilization:

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Russian prisoners in St. Petersburg are being offered freedom and money if they join Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine, according to a local independent news outlet.

Relatives of prisoners serving sentences in the city told investigative media outlet Important Stories that the notorious Russian mercenary Wagner Group is offering to pay 200 thousand rubles ($3,446), and an amnesty, for six months of "voluntary" service in the Donbas region—if the prisoners return alive.

Convicts serving sentences in IK-7 "Yablonevka" and IK-6 "Obukhovo" in St. Petersburg were also reportedly offered a five million rubles ($85,873) compensation for their families in the event of death.

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Russian Prisoners Offered Freedom If They Join Fight Against Ukraine: Report

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If this is true, the Russians are really sucking wind to keep this going without full mobilization:

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Russia really does need to mobilize to deal a decisive blow IMO as an armchair non military general. They are doing everything they can to avoid it, but passing that law stating companies had to repair military equipment regardless shows that the struggle to keep this as a quick and easy military offensive has failed tremendously and they need more "cannon fodder" so to speak. Otherwise, assuming Ukraine cannot launch a major counteroffensive, Russia can just let this go on for years gaining 10s of km every month and be satisfied.

No one here doubts that Russia has many more bodies to throw at the fight than Ukraine does, but Russia doesn't want to resort to it for good reasons (not sarcastic). The Russians I know that are my age (more cosmopolitan) are very against this conflict so I imagine the younger generation would lose their cool if an actual call to arms went out.

Now if none of what I said comes to fruition I wouldn't be shocked, but just from my interactions and following of the war I really think that's the case.

Weewee, what are your sauce(s) saying since the pause?

It would clearly be militarily easier to win the war with a mobilization, but I don't think Putin is confident he'd win even then. Russian leaders who put rifles in the hands of millions who win consolidate power like Stalin, but if they lose they can end up like Nicolas II.

I think he's counting on his level of media control and use of ethnic minorities and from the hinterlands to move the goalposts of victory and make do with a move back to a planned economy.

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Slovakia sending Ukraine their entire fighter fleet plus parts to keep their own SU-25 ground attack planes in the air. Slovakia only had a fleet of 12 MIG-29 Fulcrums but they have given them every single one. Might not be much but it helps and shows Slovakia is behind Ukraine. I’m sure somewhere down the line they will get some of our older f-16 fighters to replace what they gave Ukraine but it won’t hurt our Air Force as they will be planes due for the boneyard for storage. We have a lot of f-16’s so I’m good with it. I’d rather keep our F-15 and f-18 aircraft over the f-16.

****Slovakia will not be receiving older f-16 aircraft but rather the brand new f-16 block 70 type that they have already purchased from the U.S. until delivery of those aircraft the Czech Air Force will defend Slovakia’s airspace. Bulgaria also sent 14 SU-25 ground attack planes in late April disassembled but are now put back together and are in the air. The SU-25 parts from Slovakia must be to help for repairs on the planes Bulgaria sent along with the 15 or so Ukraine already had. Bulgaria is next in line behind Slovakia to receive the new f-16 block 70 type also. All the old Soviet block countries are switching to western weapons.

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Seems risky for Slovakia, but certainly helps the Czechs will secure their airspace. Next level cooperation imo.

Meanwhile Germany, France, and Italy can’t do much more than send some helmets

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Hardware isn't going to be the problem. Attrition will be.

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The CIA has Ukraine with 7 million males fit for military service. How many of those are willing to fight and die to defend their homes and families? 800 men turn 18 years old every day in Ukraine. That's a fresh BTG every single day. Can Russia kill them all?

Ukraine is fully mobilized. Russia is not. Ukraine is defending. Russia is attacking. Ukraine is beign supplied by the West. Russia is isolated. Ukraine is getting stronger, while Russia is getting weaker. Ukraine is getting more material than they are losing. Russia is losing more than they are building.

If Russia doesn't win soon, they'll never win. And my guess is that it's already too late. They lost their chance to take Kiev and overthrow the government. Now that Ukraine is on a stable war footing, I see no way Russia wins this thing.

There will be four Ukranian men left in the entire country and this post will continue.

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There are a lot of poor Russians in Russia and being poor is all they have ever known. But the Russians who have made it to America or otherwise escaped poverty want no part of this war.

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Putin's only offer to a Western-leaning Ukraine is to make them as miserable as are the Russians he rules, hence the viciousness of the war.

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I'm pissed that my federal taxes are a part of this.

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Well assuming everyone paid equal you will only pay like $120. Chump change to any OT baller