re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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And now Putin announces that the Russians will take an "operational pause".

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"rest the troops" is Russian for running low on ammo.

British Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 5 July 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

Russia's relatively rapid capture of Lysychansk extends its control across virtually all of the territory of Luhansk Oblast, allowing it to claim substantive progress against the policy objective it presented as the immediate purpose of the war, namely 'liberating the Donbas.

Unlike in previous phases of the war, Russia has probably achieved reasonably effective co-ordination between at least two Groupings of Forces, the Central Grouping likely commanded by General-Colonel Alexandr Lapin and the Southern Grouping probably under the recently appointed General Sergei Surovikin.

Ukrainian forces have likely largely withdrawn in good order, in line with existing plans. The Ukrainian held areas of Sieverodonetsk-Lyschansk consisted of a bulge or salient which Russian could attack from three sides. There is a realistic possibility that Ukrainian forces will now be able to fall back to a more readily defendable, straightened front line,

The battle for the Donbas has been characterised by slow rates of advance and Russia's massed employment of artillery, levelling towns and cities in the process. The fighting in Donetsk Oblast will almost certainly continue in this manner.

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Videos of more recent ammo storage locations hit here. There have been at least 23 such sites hit in just the Donbas since June 24.

And now Putin announces that the Russians will take an "operational pause"... The truth is that the Russians have no offense without massed and sustained artillery fire and his artillery depots have been hit hard, severely impacting ammunition supply. What's left of the Belarus ammo will have to be stored far across the Russian border. And even then it will be vulnerable.

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The restart will be interesting. Ukraine is starting to get more of the promised weapons, more time to get reserves on the battlefield, time to regroup and re-assemble units, etc.

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How much territory did Ukraine lose yesterday? What time do the Ukraine counter offensive posts begin?

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We shall see if there is a major counter attack, but I smell a slowdown on both sides. Russia may decide to settle on the current lines and Ukraine may be forced to accept.

Ukraine won the first few months; however, Russia clearly won June. What happens in July?

When did Russia turn back the tide against the German juggernaut in WWII? Also, Russia lost a lot more men than the Germans did, in Ukraine it's the other was around

The fighting in the Donbas over the last two months was done on Russian terms. Unlike the Kiev campaign, in the Donbas they had the Russian border at their backs. Thus shorter, multiple logistics routes. Secondly, they had a very large advantage in artillery and artillery ammunition. The most significant problem the Ukrainians had was a chronic lack of artillery ammunition. This continues today and must be addressed. A final advantage was the greater range of most of the Russian artillery, which negates most counter-battery fire.

So how do you fight an artillery-based ground war when your opponent has a major advantage in numbers and range of artillery ammunition? Answer: HIMARS. The HIMARS missiles are too expensive and valuable to use on targets such as individual artillery batteries. So you get smart and use them to force a change in the Russian tactics. You prevent your opponent’s artillery weapons from receiving ammunition in a timely manner. With the 70km range and – critically – the high accuracy of the HIMARS missiles, the Russians will be forced to disperse their ammo storage and remove it from a position of close support. Far from a position of close support. No more shorter, multiple logistics routes.

Then the now-extended road and rail infrastructure will be attacked – bridges and natural bottlenecks will be taken out. This will add significant delays in supplying the ammunition to the batteries. The trucks will have to load at numerous small dispersal points 100-150km from the batteries and drive a long and degraded road network to reach their destinations. If they start backing up into a traffic jam, they will be a target. In this manner, the Ukrainians can quickly take advantage of any disruptions of Russian artillery ammunition. Without their massed artillery umbrella, the Russians have no advantage.

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Russia won ground but lost way more troops and equipment to take that ground. Such heavy use of artillery wears out the individual howitzers quicker. Barrels end up exploding when fired.

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Don't forget to clock out.

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Russia is fighting with limited men and equip, they could easily overwhelm the Ukraine.

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not true at all. not even close to true.

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We need them to negotiate for peace, not spread this war. We are subsidizing war.

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with ukraine coming out today saying the will need 750 billion for post war recovery...i agree. thats on top of the 5billion they are saying they need every month to keep the war up.

frick that. this is a european problem, europe can pay for this shite. the usa already rebuilt europe once, we shouldnt have to pay for this shite.


and frick russia for putting us in this position. frick the whole frickign country. hope they rot for the next dozens years and end up exactly like they were after the fall of the ussr, a poor shithole.

as much as i hate russia, frick ukraine too. i hope they kill as many russians as possible and win, but frick giving them any more money and they can pay for their own recovery or get europe too. America should be done rebuilding other countries.

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Apparently, Auburn fans on this thread are not that bright and cowards.

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Did you post this from the trenches in Ukraine?

No?

Until you have experienced combat yourself, don’t go calling others cowards.