re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Everyone is all pro-founding father's until you mention no entangling alliances. Oh, but that's different.

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The Founding Fathers were pretty pleased with the alliance with France that helped us win our independence.

I live in the real world. There is a NATO and it isn't going anywhere.

If NATO broke apart and we left, we'd be on our way to being a marginalized, isolated country that few countries would pay attention to.

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Zelensky knows there are Nazis in his inner circle

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There are Nazis in your inner circle.

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If NATO broke apart and we left, we'd be on our way to being a marginalized, isolated country that few countries would pay attention to.

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Lol what?

If the posters in this thread are right about how shitty Russia’s military is then it only proves that we don’t need to be in NATO anymore.

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quote: If NATO broke apart and we left, we'd be on our way to being a marginalized, isolated country that few countries would pay attention to. Lol what? If the posters in this thread are right about how shitty Russia’s military is then it only proves that we don’t need to be in NATO anymore.

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Yea, that’s not remotely true. We are the indispensable nation and are, by far, the most powerful country in the world, and that will remain the case for the lifetimes of most people posting in this thread. Demographics and financial infrastructure will catch up with China here soon enough, and they don’t have a quarter of the military power, a fifth of the diplomatic and political power, and a tenth of the cultural power that we do as it is.

But we still need NATO and it is still highly beneficial to both us and the rest of the world. Stable markets and trading partners, an allied economic and military behemoth, etc., etc.

Mattis is 100% correct that countries with allies will thrive in the long run, and those without friends will suffer. However this war ends up for Russia, they are in for an extremely dark period in the near future. They will never get above some Latin American mimic resource extraction political economy where median income is about that of Mexico under this way of doing things. It’s a poor shithole that will remain a poor shithole, but they have become an extremely irrational actor as the demographic, cultural, and political decline has taken root since the Wall fell (hence why everyone and their mother wants NATO membership near them). NATO will also always serve as a nice counterbalance to Chinese ambitions.

And before you say it, I completely agree that certain member nations need to majorly step their shite up. It’s no accident that most of the countries who already meet the 2% threshold are Eastern European countries who have a vivid historical memory of how big of pieces of shite the Russians can be. The Germans, Spaniards, Dutch, Canadians, and Italians really need a fire lit under their asses, in particular.

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It's been months since I checked in to this thread

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Liar

Good Morning all, so had a good morning catching up with old friends in Lith, Lat, Cz and Russia. Lot of info I’m still processing. So Missile systems and artillery are making their way onto the battlefield with increasing frequency and the accuracy and range is a morale boost for UA and a further source of consternation and frustration for the RU. Bit of a bottleneck is being eased by a few new routes I’m told to go along with the other networks previously used. GRU was successful briefly in exposing one particular route but situation normal has resumed. Scandi countries joining NATO have folks in Russia asking serious questions and chief among them is what about Moldova? It’s making people nervous. I mean hair loss nervous, there are rumours that Moldova will be given candidate status. Belarus has been told in no uncertain terms that they should start preparing for more than tacit verbal pledges of support. Luka knows this is impossible and will spell the end of his rule. The army isn’t divided it’s united about staying out of Ukraine and Luka wont be able to replace all the grudge holding Generals that want him gone. In particular there are a big three that will turn on him. Deeply intrenched folks he cant control easily. Some numbers I’ve heard 40000 RU/Wagner Grp dead. The number of unusual events involving Russian military/civilian infrastructure is now well past 200. Yesterday’s/todays events in Bologrod were largely for show and again conveniently featured Russian Weapons systems that really cant be traced back to anyone but the Russians lol. Snake Island is a complete loss for RU. Folks are settling down to the idea this is protracted at the moment but HIMARS et al will break the long game of RU. Vlads trip abroad was meant to show he was still alive and in charge and although Doctors seem to have gotten his meds right for the moment but there is real fear at the Kremlin he will dip back to his opening days. Note rhetoric is toned down lately. The 300k NATO troop build up is interesting to the Czs and Baltics especially everyone is careful about their signaling and NATO is now projecting something different. My Russian friends are talking about this summer feeling so weird. Like Iraq war going on while everyone back home is focusing on enjoying themselves but knowing things are not right with the world. One of them referenced the Bourdain Beirut episode specifically, sitting poolside while the bombs are falling a few blocks away. There is however an unshakable faith there in the Russian capacity to tolerate misery and death. I have grudgingly always admired the Russian Soul very cynical very Buddhist as in all life is suffering. We pretend to work/fight they pretend to pay us. BTW Russia knows that the withdrawals are UA’s regrouping efforts but they know UA will actually come back with a shite ton more artillery and weapons systems and motivated men and women. In Russia everything is temporary including incremental advances.

British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 3 July 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

Russian-backed officials have said they will hold a referendum on Kherson Oblast joining the Russian Federation by autumn 2022. Russia is likely prioritising a pseudo-constitutional vote in an attempt to legitimise its control of the region.

On 28 June 2022, lhor Kolykhaiev, the elected mayor of Kherson city, was arrested, highly likely in an attempt to suppress opposition to the occupation. However, widespread armed and peaceful resistance continues across occupied areas.

Kherson is the region which has been brought under the new Russian occupation most comprehensively since February. Finding a constitutional solution for the occupation is likely a priority policy objective for Russia. It will highly likely be prepared to rig voting to achieve an acceptable result.

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Possibly a FROG-7

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Looks like it was a Tochkas with further evidence. Question is if theory it was intercepted and that’s what caused the civilian hit is correct or not. Appreciate your use of a link.