re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

There is a bridge from Russia to Crimea, but it is a roundabout way to get there.

Mariupol resists: vehicles burnt, employee of Russian Emergenices Ministry killed
Wednesday, 15 June 2022, 10:59

Occupied Mariupol is actively resisting its Russian occupiers.

Source: Petro Andriushchenko, adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, on Telegram

Details: According to Andriushchenko, on 9 June, 2 tractors and 3 large truck trailers ‘suddenly’ burned down in the parking lot of the Russian Ministry of Emergencies on the Taganrog highway. Arson was said to be the cause.

On 11 June, on the eve of the celebration of the Day of Russia, an unknown person stabbed an employee of the Russian Ministry of Emergencies in the back in the crowd for humanitarian aid near the METRO store. The wound was fatal.

Quote: "The city does not accept the occupation. Passive resistance in the form of sabotage has entered the active phase. These are just confirmed facts. I can’t comment more for obvious reasons.

We tell you, baZtards. Start looking around. Retribution is near."

Ukrayinska Pravda

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There is a bridge from Russia to Crimea, but it is a roundabout way to get there.

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Yes. The gist of the thread is that Russia's artillery/ammunition is a zero sum game. They are now faced with losing much of the Kherson Oblast, including the Crimean Canal and the road network between Crimea and the city of Kherson. To try to prevent this, they must transfer much of their artillery from the Donbas, including the associated support troops and transport. That could kill their efforts in the Donbas.

Here's the thread itself, addressing the recent Ukrainian advances in Kherson:

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Russia simply has to fight here for Crimea to remain viable.

So, important reason # 1. This development forces Russia to move forces & more importantly refocus it's artillery ammo supply chain from Donbas to Kherson or risk losing Crimea's water.

Important reason #2 Filling the Russia-to-Kherson logistical supply line for the same daily rate of shell usage as Donbas requires more shells to fill all the transport between Russia & Kherson.

Important Reason #3 The Russian Army is on the horns of a dilemma. A decision to reinforce Kherson now will cause a logistical pause where neither Donbas nor Kherson will have enough shells and Ukraine knows it.

Important Reason #4 There are four key distances Russia has to keep Ukraine more than a) 15 km, & then b) 8 km from Downtown Kherson and the Nova Kakhovka dam [the northern terminus of the canal]. 15 km is the range where Ukraine's drone directed 122mm guns start killing Russian vehicles. 8 km is the range Ukrainian drone directed 125mm tank gun indirect fire starts doing the same thing.

Important reason #5 Russia has got to commit its airpower to the South right now, whatever decision it makes on artillery ammo, because of those four range numbers, & Ukraine knows this too. That is, Ukraine has pushed SF teams with mines, drones, mortars, ATGM, & MANPADS to work with Ukrainian Partisans in those southern areas, no matter the choice Russia makes.

Shaping operations are about giving your opponent nothing but bad or worse options. Ukraine seems to have a nasty one in progress.

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Sounds like the Ukes have some pretty smart people doing the planning and strategizing.

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Yes, they’re called Americans.

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Ukraine has pushed SF teams with mines, drones, mortars, ATGM, & MANPADS to work with Ukrainian Partisans in those southern areas, no matter the choice Russia makes

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These SF teams will come into their own and be very effective in this fight for the Kherson region. Much of the Western training the Ukraine military got from 2015 to the outbreak of this war was focused on guerrilla warfare. No one expected the Russians to stink it up so badly, so the predictions were for an unconventional war behind the Russian lines. Different teams trained for different goals and targets, all using modern infantry weapons.

But the Ukrainians still have this training. We saw results to the north and east of Kviv in March/April when the Russians were forced to retreat. Since then, the Russians have placed their border to their backs in the Donbas and changed the nature of the fighting to their advantage with massed artillery supported by close and protected logistics and supply. In the Kherson fight, none of that will help and the Russians will suffer greatly from these SF attacks. I just hope there’s enough Go-Pros available to send us the videos.

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Sounds like the Ukes have some pretty smart people doing the planning and strategizing.

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Happy Birthday US Army!

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fight for the Kherson region.

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The fight for Kherson is a great example of Russian incompetence. They hollowed out the outer defenses on the only 3 highways leading to the region.

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The best scenario, right now, is for Putin to die. Then Russia's new leader can begin to reverse Putin's illegal course of action in Ukraine.

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If the health reports regarding Putin have any truth at all, the war may live longer than he will. However, there is no reason to believe that Putin's successor will unwind this mess. The more realistic assumption is that leadership in Moscow will continue indefinitely, putting the onus on Ukraine to defend their land regardless of health rumors.