re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1535446555515310080

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Improved Russian electronic warfare is causing havoc with Ukrainian recon UAVs, C2 nodes, counter-battery radar, and radio network communications. With their heavy reliance on UAVs for targeting, RAF EW is hindering UAF artillery operations.

Battle Damage Assessment. The Ukrainian Government Authorities have acknowledged the heavy toll current combat operations in the Donbas is having on UAF manpower. The UAF is reportedly losing 100-200 KIA and 400-500 WIA a day.

The continued loss of a battalion equivalent a day will erode UAF overall combat effectiveness faster than it will the RAF, even with Russian force generation issues. The RAF cannot ignore growing resistance to coercive mobilization practices if it hopes to replace losses.

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Overall Assessment. The character of the war has turned more favorably toward Russia, a grinding attritional war of positional battles in which RAF ground forces can make steady incremental progress behind their advantage in artillery & close air support.

The UAF will struggle to gain offensive parity or localized superiority in a war based off this character, as evident by the limited success of the northern Kherson counteroffensive, despite the UAF advantage in maneuver units. More Western artillery & EW are needed.

Time remains the ultimate enemy of both belligerents. The UAF needs to contain the RAF to the occupied areas, acquire more modern Western weapon systems & train enough forces to turn the tide. The RAF needs to complete its conquest before the UAF can defeat it.

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What are you right about?

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my theories who have doubted my warnings from say 2020 are now oddly openly quiet. They’re are now whispering in my ear that I right.

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Wait, people are wispering in your ear that you are correct aboiut the probability of this ending in nuclear war?.... GTFO

You are a moron. Nobody with a brain agrees with you. You live in a fantasy land (somewhere between GOT and Watchmen, apparently).

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as my Leftie friends admit I was right.

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I knew it, you associate yourself with Lefties.

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You’ll see, you’ll look up and scream to the people who warned you “Save us” and we’ll look down and whisper “No.”

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the mercs working for Wagner Group in UKR are not official Russian military, does Russia count their casualties in their own statistics?

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The Russians are keeping track but have officially said no one has died since the 1300 about four weeks into the war. So my CZ friend confirmed that Wagner Group Base was the one that lost 350+ men and a ton of weaponry, Wagner Group folks are obviously better paid than RU regular army and are tracked carefully for financial purposes. So numbers I’m hearing are 9700 UA KIA 48000 RU including Wagner Group KIA the civilian death toll may be double UA army. On the other hand missing and wounded RU are now around 100000 the ratios of UA KIA to RU/Wagner we’re 4 to 1 but in recent days that has fallen to 2 to 1. So my Russian friend was talking about how a company VP went missing-he was Ukrainian by birth but his loyalties were being questioned, turns out he left Russia to fight for Ukraine. Keep hearing something big is happening soon with cyber and Russian infrastructure. More and more weaponry is coming into Ukraine but training time is lagging with 7-10 days being noticed.

Thank you for that.

British Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
12 June 2022

Russia is using its overmatch in force ratio and artillery to gradually seize territory in and around
Sieverodonetsk.

Russia continues to seek to generate more combat units to deploy to Ukraine. In recent weeks,
it has likely started preparing to deploy the third battalion from some combat formations. Most
brigades normally only commit a maximum of two of their three battalions to operations at any
one time. The third battalions within brigades are often not fully staffed - Russia will likely have
to rely on new recruits or mobilised reservists to deploy these units to Ukraine.

Deploying all three of their battalions simultaneously will likely reduce formations' longer term
capacity to regenerate combat power after operations.

What a great question. I’m at a bit of a advantage and disadvantage simultaneously I think. Advantage as I’m in Canada with a ton of European news and channels ie BBC Channel 4 Britain and TV5 from France Cbc CTV Canada and I’ve got a number of folks I talk to usually on weekends from CZ EST LAT LITh and RU. I’m at a disadvantage in that I don’t know how to confirm what people are saying to me. Cypher, Cents and a few other posters here have a knack for finding confirmation. I’m hearing this war is over it’s a matter of time and materials RU may make some temporary advances and may hold large towns and small villages until UA reinforcements and training is finished in 7-14 days. Regular RU army and even Wagner Group are angry that they have been sent on a nationalist whim to fight in Ukraine. The numbers of dead are adding up quick and Russia had grown used to bring a part of things and that’s gone probably for a generation maybe two. I’m told there won’t be a family in Russia that by the time this is done won’t have a direct connection to someone who died, was injured
Or affected by Russia being made a pariah state. Russians have fled the country in the hundreds of thousands…the youngest and brightest. my prediction is that NATO will at the end of this will create a new category of affiliates that they will pledge the materials for self defence. I’m also a believer that the EU will guarantee Ukraine membership in exchange for a buffer region which will include Crimea and Ukraine will refuse.