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Posted on 6/12/22 at 9:57 am to TBoy
I think that is is safe too say that the sanctions are a failure up to this point. Europe could not or would not shut off the Russian oil and gas and that funded Putin's war. Sanctions never work. Ukraine is running out of ammo and never received enough heavy artillery. Too little, too late. This is effecting Ukraine's ability or success in any counter-offenses. Russia is simply out gunning them. Frick the Germans to hell. Europe was never determined to stop Putin. They had a chance to deliver him a serious blow but passed. Europe isn't serious regarding threats or its own defense. Germany,France and Italy are the leaders of this. I say frick them. Let the bastards defend themselves and pay for their own defense.
Ukraine: get ready for the sellout from the EU. Poland, the Baltics and all of Eastern Europe you better get prepared. Putin is going to be knocking at your door next, maybe not with invasion, but an all out blitz to destabilize you.
Ukraine: get ready for the sellout from the EU. Poland, the Baltics and all of Eastern Europe you better get prepared. Putin is going to be knocking at your door next, maybe not with invasion, but an all out blitz to destabilize you.
This post was edited on 6/12/22 at 10:04 am
Posted on 6/12/22 at 10:03 am to TBoy
quote:This would satisfy the Brussels bureaucratic playbook:
I’m also a believer that the EU will guarantee Ukraine membership in exchange for a buffer region which will include Crimea and Ukraine will refuse.
I can see this playing out exactly as you suggest.
1.) Never make a decision; and
2.) when forced to make a decision, see Rule 1.
The EU mandarins know that Ukraine will never concede a buffer zone from sovereign territory, so they frame the membership decision on this requirement. That's the Brussel's way.
Posted on 6/12/22 at 10:06 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
This would satisfy the Brussels bureaucratic playbook:
1.) Never make a decision; and
2.) when forced to make a decision, see Rule 1.
100%.
I heard yesterday that continued support is really crumbling in the EU. Does that surprise anyone? The EU never was all in nor 100% committed.
Ukraine is fricked.
This post was edited on 6/12/22 at 10:11 am
Posted on 6/12/22 at 10:10 am to AU86
The sanctions were never going to completely shut down the country. They are working in the sense that it is doing a ton of damage to their economy and therefore leading to little support for this war amongst the general population
Posted on 6/12/22 at 10:13 am to AU86
quote:
Europe was never determined to stop Putin. They had a chance to deliver him a serious blow but passed. Europe isn't serious regarding threats or its own defense.
I think you are right and it definitely sucks for Ukraine. The U.S. and Europe played a part in the situation being what it is today.
However, if Europe doesn't give a shite about what's going on in their backyard and doesn't want any involvement, we don't need any involvement either.
Posted on 6/12/22 at 10:16 am to TigerMan327
Russia's economy is oil and gas. That is the grease that turns the wheel.
The stabilization of the Ruble has helped dampen the effects on the average Russian. Putin even increased their pensions to offset the inflation. The first couple of weeks the stores were empty but they have been replenished.
The stabilization of the Ruble has helped dampen the effects on the average Russian. Putin even increased their pensions to offset the inflation. The first couple of weeks the stores were empty but they have been replenished.
Posted on 6/12/22 at 10:19 am to TigerMan327
Sanctions are a long-term tool, and the threat of them can deter, but once Putin made the decision for full-scale invasion, they weren't going to be decisive in any way in a short-term war. They can have a major impact in the long term, however, if they stay in place. The problem is Putin's plan is to revisit Stalin's playbook and use starvation politics to create a massive wave of refugees to overwhelm Europe and force capitulation.
Posted on 6/12/22 at 10:21 am to AU86
quote:
Ukraine is running out of ammo and never received enough heavy artillery.
Russia had around 2,000 152mm self propelled guns in active service at the start of the war. And at least that many in reserve.
Ukraine had perhaps 250 to 275.
Russia went to war with an overwhelming material advantage, that Europe couldn’t offset. Putting aside the issue of introducing a new weapon systems, with the training and supply hurdles, there wasn’t enough to send to Ukraine.
Posted on 6/12/22 at 10:21 am to AU86
Sure, in the short-run, but the Fed is going to put the world into recession to put the brakes on inflation and worldwide oil demand is going to go into the tank with it. Russia's going to have to go back into subvert-the-west-through-frickery mode rather than military adventurism soon.
This post was edited on 6/12/22 at 10:40 am
Posted on 6/12/22 at 10:34 am to TigerDoc
quote:
they weren't going to be decisive in any way in a short-term war. can have a major impact in the long term, however, if they stay in place.
I agree with your post. The sanctions cannot save Ukraine in the short-term, so you have to enable them to stay in the fight with sufficient arms/ammo/financial support. The West has not done that. We are witnessing that real time in the Donbass. So if Ukraine cannot stay in the fight, how do the sanctions help Ukraine? The sanctions were never going to stop Putin unless they included a complete shutdown of oil and gas. Too little, too late. Putin is committed to this now, he cannot stop. If he loses he is finished. And Europe never made the commitment that would assure that he would lose or be stopped.
This post was edited on 6/12/22 at 10:36 am
Posted on 6/12/22 at 10:40 am to red sox fan 13
quote:
It seems to me that Ukraine will remain an independent state and the question now is of Russia will hold on to territory in the breakaway states and southern Black Sea coast to Kherson. It also seems like the fronts are pretty stagnant. Is that a fair assessment?
Yes.
Posted on 6/12/22 at 10:54 am to AU86
I agree. Germany seems to be willing to sacrifice the Donbas. We've just got to hope that they have the will to take on the energy independence issue because if they do, Putin's leverage in European politics really shrinks. Of course, he'll still have starvation-migration ploys and more overt nuke threats, but he'll also have perilous internal politics. Even in the short-term US lend-lease has only barely made an impact, though, and we shouldn't underestimate it. As Yogi said, predictions are hard, especially about the future.
This post was edited on 6/12/22 at 11:25 am
Posted on 6/12/22 at 11:03 am to AU86
quote:
Ukraine: get ready for the sellout from the EU. Poland, the Baltics and all of Eastern Europe you better get prepared. Putin is going to be knocking at your door next, maybe not with invasion, but an all out blitz to destabilize you.
It's funny how that dirty, nasty petroleum can be used to bring countries to heel. It can be used to blackmail. Poland better be building nuclear power plants.
Posted on 6/12/22 at 11:13 am to TigerDoc
Germany has been a disgrace in this since even before 2014. Schroder and Merkel policies. Her official policy of believing by trading with a country you can and will moderate it and pull it into your camp was/is a disaster. (We tried that with China and see how it has worked. The Nixon/Kissinger policy is a total failure.) Nordstream 2, Minsk I and II are other examples of Germany stabbing Ukraine in the back or appeasement toward Putin. They have slow walked any and all weapon deliveries to Ukraine. They just announced that the mid range missle systems that they promised awhile ago will not be delivered until October!
This post was edited on 6/12/22 at 12:20 pm
Posted on 6/12/22 at 11:29 am to AU86
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/22/26 at 8:23 pm
Posted on 6/12/22 at 11:30 am to AU86
All true. They assumed that we could bring Russia along into Europe's post-war future, but instead of pacifying Russia, they Russified too much of Europe. We haven't exactly shone either, though. Obama really was disappointing on this and some are quick to forget we elected a pro-Russian president. Anybody see if Putin's gotten around to sanctioning Trump yet? (don't bother)
This post was edited on 6/12/22 at 11:31 am
Posted on 6/12/22 at 11:42 am to TigerMan327
quote:
They are working in the sense that it is doing a ton of damage to their economy and therefore leading to little support for this war amongst the general population
I’ve never seen sanctions do that
Posted on 6/12/22 at 11:45 am to OMLandshark
Now do Mariupol.
Posted on 6/12/22 at 11:49 am to LeClerc
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/22/26 at 8:22 pm
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