re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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It seems like the Ukranians are doing as I suggested last week. Pulling back, retreating, to a better defense line.

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Seems you really were correct:

Well that explains it.

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It appears that Russia is throwing the kitchen sink at this one axis and Ukraine is trying to absorb the punch without reinforcements, on the theory Russia doesn't have enough to finish the job or have anything left to stop the counteroffensive

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This is probably hopeium, but as I'm watching the updates with the Ukrainian withdrawal I'm really hoping it goes like Kyiv. Pull back and expose the logistics then start attacking and force them to pull back.

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Does Russia have military assets in Crimea like say Sevastapol and are the people on Crimea fighting or willing to fight for the Ruskies? Sorry if dumb question. Just feel like I don't know what's going on in that area.

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Crimea was heavily pro-Russian prior to the Maiden. Russia's Black Sea Fleet is based in Crimea and so it does have naval units and naval infantry (aka marines) in Crimea. Russia illegally annexed Crimea 8 years ago and has been distributing Russian passports to the citizens of Crimea for the pass 8 years. It has also been "allowing" citizens of Crimea to leave for Ukraine or in some cases forcing them to leave for Ukraine if they did not want to be give up their Ukrainian citizenship in exchange for Russian citizenship. Plus Russia has been encouraging Russia citizens from Moscow, St. Petersburg, etc to relocate to Crimea. Given all of that I would assume that the citizens Crimea are pretty supportive of Russia. My Ukrainian friends and most of the Ukrainian citizens want Crimea back because the loss of Crimea is a source huge embarrassment for them. However, the Ukrainian leadership realizes that it is lost which is why they are saying they would consider pushing Russia back to the pre 2/23/22 demarcation line enough of a victory to allow them to negotiate from a position of strength.

About those sanctions…

ETA: made me curious so I checked the Ruble/USD exchange:



Ruble in better shape today than pre-invasion. Before the accusations, I’m just legitimately trying to understand where the sanctions went. Very rapidly and robustly effective on announcement, but now appear to be inefficient.

Domestically Russia lost some American fast food and coffee franchises, but ruble has recovered quickly and exceeds pre-invasion levels. Seemingly indicates the only Russian O&G not flowing is by their choice (cutting Finland and Poland off).

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I still want someone to explain the existential threat Russia faces to the United States should they take over Ukraine.

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Look at recent history. It was just last year that Russia took down one of the major pipelines in the USA by cyberattack. It launched multiple cyberattacks against US government agencies in 2020. Russia provide financial support to the socialist government in Venezuela and that government is funding and organizing the migrant caravans which have lead to surging crimes in the USA. The Russian government also funds ANTIFA and other groups looking to create trouble in the USA. Then there is the future conflict between the USA and Russia over resources in the Arctic. A powerful Russia is a bad neighbor and a global troublemaker. So it is in the USA's best interest to knock its troublemaking neighbor down before it becomes an even bigger problem.

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If this conflict has done anything, it has demonstrated that American involvement in NATO has reached it's expiration date.

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Are you not paying attention to what is happening or just down right stupid? Russia has not attacked the Baltic states, Poland, or Sweden and Finland because the USA has increased our troop deployment to Europe by over 30% this year and extended that protection to include Sweden and Finland. Europe has finally gotten the message and realized it needs to defend itself and it is defending itself by purchasing American made equipment. Poland, Finland, and Germany have all purchased F-35s in the last 2 years. Poland has purchased 250 M1A2s, Romania and Bulgaria have purchased F-16s and are in the process of purchasing M1A2s. NATO does not allow countries to purchase equipment from non-NATO countries which is why Turkey was sanctioned by NATO and kicked out of the F-35 program when it purchased the S-400 from Russia. If the USA left NATO then those billions of dollars worth of military purchases and the jobs that come with them would go to Germany and France.

Also participating in and working with out first world nations helps keep the American military the best in the world. The USA spent the 1980s working with and drilling in Europe to come up with tactics to defeat the USSR which is why we were able to destroy Iraq's USSR trained military in less than 100 hours in 1991. Hell just look at this current conflict. Prior to 2014, Ukraine mainly trained with itself and its leaders were educated in Ukrainian military schools. When the Ukrainian military went up against the Russian backed separatists in the fall of 2014 and winter of 2015 it got its arse handed to it. Ukraine then spent the next 7 years working with and training with NATO. By training with other nations it was able to learn tactics to defeat Russia despite still being mostly armed with Soviet era weapons. Russia does not train with other militaries and therefore it cannot take the blinders off and adapt.

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Russia is running out of tanks. That's the inescapable conclusion from reports that it's transporting some of its reported 2,500 stored T-62s to support its war in Ukraine. What does this mean logistically and operationally? A ?? with some observations and deductions. /1

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LINK

Starting to see the first pieces of evidence to back up what the UK MOD, the ISW, the Australian intel ppl, and the posters on who are paying attention and are honest have been saying. Russia is running out of tanks. It is now having to dig into its reserves to not only find unmodernized T-72 but it is also now sending T-62s to the front. That is just going to make Russia's logistical system even more difficult. The T-62 uses a one piece 115 mm round instead of a 2 piece 125 mm round used by the T-72, T-80, and T-90.

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They're unable to produce tanks, SAMs, aircraft, etc.

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Yes, but they’re economic sanctions that now seemingly lack economic effect relative to the strength of the announcements.

When our Javelins are averaging a 90% kill rate at whatever they are fired at then it’s not hard to see why they are running out of tanks. That’s not even accounting for the British NLAW which is a damn good weapon itself. Ukraine has also captured 300 of their more modern T-72 tanks.

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How much of that surplus is because they can't import anything. Money is worthless if nobody will sell to you.

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I feel solidly sure that’s a significant part of the change in surplus, but their exports are up as well, meaning O&G is still flowing which we all knew and continue to know was the bite in any sanction package. Russia runs on it and clearly the west has not taken it away despite their words.