re: Israel Pfizer efficacy against covid-19 hospitalizations broken down by age group

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They’re about putting the group above oneself

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unfortunately that's not the reality

if it were, we would be giving vaccines out to the vulnerable and older populations in other countries who do not have access

it's actually unethical to force guys like me to get one when others actually need it

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That's how it should go. People should make a personal decision whether they want to get the vaccine or not.

Let me ask you (and anyone willing to answer) a question.
The vaccine is free. If it weren't free, how much would you be willing to pay for the vaccine to get the additional protection that the vaccine offers?

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I'd probably pay up to about $35 for it.

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I’m not anti-vaxx, but a lifetime of boosters doesn’t make me want to get the shot.

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It's more deadly than flu shot and about half of Americans get that. A lot of parents give their infants the flu shot.

I don't expect 90% of Americans to maintain their covid shot unless covid remains an issue.

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A maximum of 6.2 severe cases per 100,000 for anyone under 40 and unvaccinated but yeah we need to vaxxx everyone over 12

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This is a percentage of 0.0062.

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Reports of death after COVID-19 vaccination are rare. More than 357 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the United States from December 14, 2020, through August 16, 2021. During this time, VAERS received 6,789 reports of death (0.0019%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine. FDA requires healthcare providers to report any death after COVID-19 vaccination to VAERS, even if it’s unclear whether the vaccine was the cause. Reports of adverse events to VAERS following vaccination, including deaths, do not necessarily mean that a vaccine caused a health problem. A review of available clinical information, including death certificates

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For anyone younger than 30 its 0.0015% severe cases.
CDC

ETA: this is the point we are at. People will downvote raw data because it doesn't support their view that everyone should be vaxxed. You are anti-science pieces of shite.

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To make it slightly clearer, the OP data says that 1 out of 500k people aged 30-39 vaccinated will get a sever case while 31 out of 500k will get a severe case in not vaxxed.

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No it doesn't.

OP's data says that 1/500k and 31/500k currently have a severe case of covid. This data is to compare risk of vaxed vs not, NOT the risk of ever contracting a severe infection at all.



If you want to figure the chance of will get a severe infection, you have to look at the current severe cases in terms of current infections and assume that everyone will be infected at some point. That means we have to take the 6.2/100k and 0.2/100k (the updated data is 8.8 and 0.5, so I will use these) and divide by current infections per 100k, which are presently 964/100k and 650/100k respectively.

So as a vaccinated 30-39 year old in Israel, you have approximately 0.5/650 = 0.08% chance of developing a severe illness if you contract covid. About 77/100k, or 384/500k to compare with your terms.

And as an unvaccinated 30-39 year old in Israel, you have approximately 8.8/964 = 0.9% chance of developing a severe illness if you contract covid. About 913/100k, or 4564/500k to compare with your terms.

But again, that assumes everyone is equally likely to contract covid at all, and that everyone will contract it eventually. Neither is quite true. To start, in the 30-39 age bracket in Israel, 78% are fully vaxed, and another 6% have one dose, so I will leave them out as done in OP's link. As above, current infections are 650 and 964, so (964/16)/(650/78) = 7.23. The unvaccinated are developing a detectable illness at roughly 7X the rate of the vaccinated.

I’m 6’2” - right around 185 is about perfect for me - 180 would be fine. I’m not trying to play middle linebacker for the Chiefs.

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vaccines have never really been about individual risk. They’re about putting the group above oneself. They obviously limit your individual risk quite a bit, but, more importantly, they help slow/stop the spread of a virus altogether.

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The vaccine doesn’t stop the spread. It masks the symptoms. The vaccinated are more likely to spread because we don’t know they are infected.

shite got real around August 1, the data is almost useless. It was barely a blip during the time this data was collected.

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To make it slightly clearer, the OP data says that 1 out of 500k people aged 30-39 vaccinated will get a sever case while 31 out of 500k will get a severe case in not vaxxed.

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No it doesn't.

OP's data says that 1/500k and 31/500k currently have a severe case of covid. This data is to compare risk of vaxed vs not, NOT the risk of ever contracting a severe infection at all.


If you want to figure the chance of will get a severe infection, you have to look at the current severe cases in terms of current infections and assume that everyone will be infected at some point. That means we have to take the 6.2/100k and 0.2/100k (the updated data is 8.8 and 0.5, so I will use these) and divide by current infections per 100k, which are presently 964/100k and 650/100k respectively.

So as a vaccinated 30-39 year old in Israel, you have approximately 0.5/650 = 0.08% chance of developing a severe illness if you contract covid. About 77/100k, or 384/500k to compare with your terms.

And as an unvaccinated 30-39 year old in Israel, you have approximately 8.8/964 = 0.9% chance of developing a severe illness if you contract covid. About 913/100k, or 4564/500k to compare with your terms.

But again, that assumes everyone is equally likely to contract covid at all, and that everyone will contract it eventually. Neither is quite true. To start, in the 30-39 age bracket in Israel, 78% are fully vaxed, and another 6% have one dose, so I will leave them out as done in OP's link. As above, current infections are 650 and 964, so (964/16)/(650/78) = 7.23. The unvaccinated are developing a detectable illness at roughly 7X the rate of the vaccinated.

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I was going to say the same thing, but you did it much better. Many are misinterpreting the data to assume the chart indicates OVERALL risk - The numbers are only valid to compare the two data points (vaccinated vs. unvaccinated).

Common sense should inform people that these cannot be the numbers of overall risk. For example, the numbers in the study show the number of severe cases for unvaccinated people is 16.4 per 100,000.

Applying these numbers to Louisiana, with 4.7 million population, and assuming EVERY SINGLE PERSON gets covid, you multiply 14.6 x 47 to get 785 total severe cases in the entire state. Again, assuming every single person contracts covid.

If there were only 785 severe cases, your average person probably wouldn't even be aware covid-19 exists. It would be noise in the background of existing coronaviruses that already infect hundreds of millions of people each year.