Is an invasion of Taiwan by China next on the 2021 Bingo Card?

Another 10% for the big guy

would just be another problem to blame on the previous administration or white supremacy

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Is an invasion of Taiwan by China next on the 2021 Bingo Card?

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It's more like the Free Space in the middle.

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(I do not think they will invade, but will essentially have Taiwan fold to them and become the next Hong Kong...)

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This isn't really comparable. China already had security forces and the People's Liberation Army in Hong Kong. Moreover, China undermined several aspects of civil society, business, law, and education in Hong Kong over the past couple of decades.

What would hold China back is honestly the level to which they're still dependent on Western cities and institutions for their wealth. Despite the bluster, top Chinese communist party officials all have an "escape plan" to the West for when/if Chinese society falls apart, and they keep large amounts of money and valuables (expensive paintings, jewelry, gold) in ports around the world. An invasion of Taiwan places all of that at risk, as well as their cushy lifestyles.

Statements like this one from the Global Times are pure propaganda intended to undermine Taiwan's confidence from within and give pause to US allies who might be willing to help.

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Become the next Hong Kong

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Taiwan and Hong Kong are in very different positions.

What’s happened in Hong Kong was that China cut short a deal it had with England that the status quo (self governance) of Hong Kong would remain in place for 40 years following the transfer of Hong Kong from England to China. The “National Security Act” of last year cut that 40 year period to about 25 years.

Taiwan is the former Chinese government in exile on an island after reaching a “stalemate” in the Chinese Civil War (albeit a 95% loss).

Notably, this island is separate enough from the mainland to be immune to an actual army invasion (6x English Channel width). China possesses no ability to economically starve it.

The main reason Taiwan isn’t a country already is the (IMO) vain hope the KMT have that they can outlive the CCP and retake the Chinese mainland. However, the KMT is losing ground in Taiwan in favor of a Taiwanese identity/independence movement during Xi’s reign in China.

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They have zero reason to actually invade. They'll lose more than they gain. I'd say the status quo is working out pretty damn well for China given their ascendance over the past 20 years. This isn't to say they won't sabre-rattle and make threats, they've got to keep the possibility alive, but I don't think they'd actually proactively invade.

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China is GOING to take that island. Sooner. Or later. But they're going to do it. It's a matter of pride for them. Further, it's a signal to the GwaiLo that the whole area belongs to China.

China has been humiliated by the West since at least the Boxer Rebellion. They've had American gunboats patrolling their rivers. The British owned Hong Kong, right on their coast. America protected Chiang Kai Shek on Taiwan, essentially setting up a rival China, right off of their coast.

Oh yes, they're going to take Taiwan. The question is just a matter of when.

Yes and the Democrats will let them.

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I think the dominos have started falling and China will make a move soon. They know the USA is weak now and Biden is an idiot. If they wait too long then Trump or Desantis will be in office in 2024. They have to strike while the iron is hot.

I expect Taiwan will give in without much of a fight. They know they cannot rely on the US to support them anymore and dont want to see their people slaughtered.

This could cause more dominoes to fall like South Korea and even Japan (though I think we would draw the line at Japan and fight for them. Even the soy boys might get their testosterone up to save beloved Nintendo).

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This could perhaps be the most ill informed foreign policy post I've read on this board, and that's saying something. Japan? South Korea?

Tell me, o' wise one, WHY would China do those things, knowing full well they'd not only start WWIII, but they'd shut off nearly all of their trading partners?

The Chinese are a lot of things but impulsive sure as frick isn't one of them.