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Started By
Message
IHME now projects less Covid-19 deaths than bad flu season...
Posted on 4/8/20 at 12:14 pm
Posted on 4/8/20 at 12:14 pm
https://bongino.com/ihme-model-reduces-100k-200k-deaths-projection-to-30k-120k/
I wonder how low they can go...
I wonder how low they can go...
10
Posted on 4/8/20 at 12:16 pm to Anaximander
Clearly it's because our fearless government overlords protected us and not because everyone lost their minds
Posted on 4/8/20 at 12:16 pm to Anaximander
Here comes the pivot.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 12:18 pm to Anaximander
A large part of it is because poor/bad data was used early on and it is now correcting itself.
There is an element of reduction due to measures taken too.
There is an element of reduction due to measures taken too.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 12:20 pm to Anaximander
Posted on 4/8/20 at 12:21 pm to Anaximander
So you think this is just like the flu?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 12:21 pm to Anaximander
Sweet.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 12:26 pm to Anaximander
Antonio "the data scientist" Moss in 3,2,1...
Posted on 4/8/20 at 12:33 pm to crewdepoo
quote:
So you think this is just like the flu?
No, I do not. Why?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 12:34 pm to crewdepoo
quote:
So you think this is just like the flu?
No, it appears to be maybe 2-3x worse
Posted on 4/8/20 at 12:37 pm to Anaximander
Isn't this number only because of the shelter in place/ social distancing? If there was no mitigation wouldn't the numbers be a lot higher?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 12:39 pm to Anaximander
60,000 deaths seems pretty reasonable. We are at 14k right now with some fairly high daily death numbers. But I think those are gonna slow down real soon and by mid May we will be cruising.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 12:39 pm to Dizz
quote:
Isn't this number only because of the shelter in place/ social distancing? If there was no mitigation wouldn't the numbers be a lot higher?
Let's not act like people are really social distancing. Stores are packed, subways are packed. Delivery services are humming.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 12:40 pm to Dizz
quote:
Isn't this number only because of the shelter in place/ social distancing? If there was no mitigation wouldn't the numbers be a lot higher?
Don't let facts and science get in the way of a good political argument.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 12:41 pm to Dizz
Well yeah I mean just look at how it's kicking the asses of Italy and the UK.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 12:44 pm to Anaximander
quote:
No, I do not. Why?
Because you are comparing it to the flu. Many people here said it was not as bad as the flu.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 12:48 pm to Dizz
Sweden: No lockdown just suggests social distancing,,Yet numbers are not far off other Scandavian countries with lockdowns. And Sweden has far more international travelers than any Scandanavian country.
Sweden....834 cases per million citizens...68 deaths per million citizens
Denmark....933 cases per million citizens...38 deaths per million citizens
Norway.....1123 cases per million citizens...19 deaths per million citizens
Finland.....449 cases per million citizens...7 deaths per million citizens
Sweden....834 cases per million citizens...68 deaths per million citizens
Denmark....933 cases per million citizens...38 deaths per million citizens
Norway.....1123 cases per million citizens...19 deaths per million citizens
Finland.....449 cases per million citizens...7 deaths per million citizens
Posted on 4/8/20 at 1:36 pm to The Boat
quote:
Let's not act like people are really social distancing. Stores are packed, subways are packed. Delivery services are humming.
I don't disagree that people are going out but it is still a fraction of what is normal.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 1:42 pm to The Boat
quote:
Let's not act like people are really social distancing. Stores are packed, subways are packed. Delivery services are humming.
You don't understand social distancing. That guy in the grocery is contacting a dozen people a day instead of three dozen. And that's the idiot who is hardly doing anything. My wife and I are contacting almost no one - just our two grandkids and their parents. Social distancing is having a huge impact on the virus spread.
Also, the virus is no where near as bad as they were predicting. The contagiousness is fairly high, but the lethality is very low.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 1:49 pm to Anaximander
Such a tasty nothingburger
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