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re: IHME model is getting better for the US...stabilizing as we get more and more good data
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:38 am to SuperSaint
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:38 am to SuperSaint
quote:
The one saying most of the OTers wouldn’t have any cases in their communities? That one?
I’m in BR and know ONE person who has contracted the virus and been confirmed positive.
0
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:39 am to lsupride87
quote:The entire reason was to flatten the curve.
I just find it frustrating the entire argument has gone fom "its about hospital capacity, not individual deaths" to "more people will die if we dont stay inside"
The mentality of many who did not understand the concept was that it would speed the stay at home process up.
I really do expect people to get angry as this continues.
The economic fear will start overtaking the infection fear, and public opinion will begin to shift.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:40 am to SuperSaint
quote:Already opened up to being wrong on that one.
The one saying most of the OTers wouldn’t have any cases in their communities? That one?
LA was hit a lot harder than I expected due to Mardi Gras.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:40 am to dukke v
quote:
Ever bookmarked any of my predictions????? Lol.
No. I let Caesar's Palace keep track of most of your predictions.
Fading Peeeeeeeeeej is the best bet in town.
We should start a website. www.alwaysbetagainstpeej.com
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 10:41 am
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:41 am to lsupride87
quote:
I just find it frustrating the entire argument has gone fom "its about hospital capacity, not individual deaths" to "more people will die if we dont stay inside"
Gotta agree here.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:41 am to Scruffy
Well those checks haven't started coming in yet and I'm sure it has people edgy. I heard they won't start hitting accounts until April 16th.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:44 am to lsupride87
quote:
I just find it frustrating the entire argument has gone fom "its about hospital capacity, not individual deaths" to "more people will die if we dont stay inside"
except when comparing to LA to Italy
that argument shifted to "deaths are a red herring" real quick
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:44 am to dukke v
quote:Even with the checks, it’ll be problematic.
Well those checks haven't started coming in yet and I'm sure it has people edgy. I heard they won't start hitting accounts until April 16th.
Despite what people on the OT say, most people don’t want to be on UE.
We have already hit 10 million UE requests.
How high will that be at the next count?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:47 am to lsupride87
quote:
I just find it frustrating the entire argument has gone fom "its about hospital capacity, not individual deaths" to "more people will die if we dont stay inside"
Yeah, I find that frustrating.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:55 am to BRIllini07
Things have to get back to some semblance of normalcy after April 30th. These measures just aren’t worth it after that.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:59 am to RB10
quote:
I used the projection for Covid rather than the top range
Which was the whole point of the argument and you still did it after being called on it
That's been the theme from day 1 on the OT. Virtually everyone has been using the top range of estimates for every other pandemic in their comparisons, but will use either the median or a lower number for Covid.
People are still clowning obama for not reacting this way to H1N1. We had more lab confirmed covid deaths YESTERDAY in the US than we had in 9 months of H1N1.
This post was edited on 4/8/20 at 11:00 am
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:59 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
I bookmarked ~100 posts from people. Might have a big thread with screenshots.
[/img]
Posted on 4/8/20 at 11:02 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Which was the whole point of the argument and you still did it after being called on it
You realize your "1000 deaths per day from the flu" was the low end of the estimation, right?
I'm guessing not.
quote:
That's been the theme from day 1 on the OT. Virtually everyone has been using the top range of estimates for every other pandemic in their comparisons, but will use either the median or a lower number for Covid.
The number for Covid has been dropping daily. Using the low end of the projections has been fairly accurate.
Keep in mind that the "low end" just last week was over 100k dead.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 11:04 am to RB10
quote:
The number for Covid has been dropping daily. Using the low end of the projections has been fairly accurate.
which is fine
but if you want to compare it to other viruses/pandemics, just be consistent and use the low end of those ranges too
thats it
Posted on 4/8/20 at 11:07 am to Salmon
quote:
which is fine
but if you want to compare it to other viruses/pandemics, just be consistent and use the low end of those ranges too
thats it
So 12K for flu and 30K for Corona? Got it.
The reaction to this virus is even more absurd than I originally believed.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 11:07 am to UnluckyTiger
quote:
Things have to get back to some semblance of normalcy after April 30th. These measures just aren’t worth it after that.
Public sentiment has already started to shift to that, even in liberal areas. And it is just April 8th.
If numbers continue to improve or be kept under control, by April 30th people will really be pushing politicians to open this up.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 11:08 am to RB10
quote:
Keep in mind that the "low end" just last week was over 100k dead.
No it wasn't.
Fauci said 2 weeks ago that we could see 100k deaths in the US.
You think Fauci used the LOW end number in that presser?
quote:
You realize your "1000 deaths per day from the flu" was the low end of the estimation, right?
quote:
You realize your "1000 deaths per day from the flu" was the low end of the estimation, right?
The worldometer number for daily worldwide flu deaths (based on WHO and CDC estimates) is a little over 1200 per day. That's the median estimate.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 11:10 am to RB10
quote:
So 12K for flu and 30K for Corona? Got it.
sure, kinda
that 30k doesn't account for the inevitable fall/winter COVID spike
quote:
The reaction to this virus is even more absurd than I originally believed.
not arguing otherwise
Posted on 4/8/20 at 11:11 am to RB10
quote:
Keep in mind that the "low end" just last week was over 100k dead.
For the world? Definitely not the US.
I'm looking at a screenshot from April 1st from the IHME model.
The low end was ~40k deaths. High End ~178k. Middle of the road, which most people have been using during this for COVID, was 93,531.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 11:12 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
The worldometer number for daily worldwide flu deaths (based on WHO and CDC estimates) is a little over 1200 per day. That's the median estimate.
So only 20% more than your 1000?
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