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3
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:45 am to Cosmo
The CMC is pretty much shite, but it is occasionally right. 
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:46 am to Ingeniero
OH CANADA!
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:46 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
They wreck Alabama, though. Frederick and Ivan.
Florida is more unisex, though, as they tend to get wrecked by hurricanes with both male and female names.
Solid Weather Historian stuff
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:47 am to Ingeniero
I’m leaving New Orleans this weekend for a trip. Will my house be underwater when I return?
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:48 am to Cosmo
quote:
The canadian model must just be a money laundering scheme
GFS finally passed the Canadian model for third most accurate after they revamped GFS a couple of years ago. Euro most accurate followed by UK. This isn’t tropical specific. Talking overall performance.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:48 am to jimithing11
quote:
leaving New Orleans this weekend for a trip. Will my house be underwater when I return?
Probably not underwater, but probably looted
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:48 am to Cosmo
Inject the Canadian model into my veins. Hitting south florida by tuesday and then being gone. Let's go.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:49 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
The CMC is pretty much shite, but it is occasionally right.
Sounds like peej
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:49 am to jimithing11
quote:
I’m leaving New Orleans this weekend for a trip. Will my house be underwater when I return?
Isn’t that a 50/50 shot on a random rainy day?
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:50 am to jimithing11
quote:
I’m leaving New Orleans this weekend for a trip. Will my house be underwater when I return?
Depends on when you return. 2085...allegedly.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:53 am to The Boat
quote:
Solid Weather Historian stuff
I like to contribute in any way that I can.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:53 am to maisweh
quote:
probably looted
Just leave all your canned goods on the porch. One man’s looting is another man’s survival stealing.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:55 am to Ingeniero
quote:
Hold on just a damn minute, wasn't the CMC sending it to Galveston a few days ago?
We are all CMC enjoyers now, kings.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:55 am to Oates Mustache
Kinda sad that European model is better than the American one when Europe doesn’t even get hurricanes
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:58 am to deltaland
Can someone list some sites to find all of these models other than tropical tidbits for us noobs.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:59 am to fightin tigers
The trend worth following right now is the same one we were talking about last night. I was finally able to get gifs from TT. It took forever, dial-up speeds were reached, but I got them.
Watch the difference in the Vorticity signatures between the GFS and Euro. The GFS counties on the 06z to fire convection downstream, and that drags the system to the SW. It doesn't feel the pull to the North like it does on the Euro.
How and where the system forms those storms and closes off over the next couple of days will tell the story. This is a known bias for GFS to do this, but at this point it is a trend. The more sensible bet would be some form of splitting the difference between the two.
Watch the difference in the Vorticity signatures between the GFS and Euro. The GFS counties on the 06z to fire convection downstream, and that drags the system to the SW. It doesn't feel the pull to the North like it does on the Euro.
How and where the system forms those storms and closes off over the next couple of days will tell the story. This is a known bias for GFS to do this, but at this point it is a trend. The more sensible bet would be some form of splitting the difference between the two.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:00 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
male names typically don't wreck louisiana
They wreck Alabama, though. Frederick and Ivan.
They wreck Houston. Our most recent bad storms were Ike and Harvey.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:02 am to deltaland
I miss the doomcane model that they updated. You'd run it right now and it would have that storm at 890mb after 48 hours.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:03 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
The GFS counties on the 06z to fire convection downstream, and that drags the system to the SW. It doesn't feel the pull to the North like it does on the Euro. How and where the system forms those storms and closes off over the next couple of days will tell the story. This is a known bias for GFS to do this
Do you think it’s a bias, or actually plausible due to the shear from Fiona coming from the NE? I could see the shear causing convection to be away from the center to the SW and it pulling the center that direction as Fiona moves away. However, it would need to actually develop a LLC early enough to create that scenario. If it develops a LLC later after Fiona moves away, it won’t be tugged to the south because convection will fire closer to the newly formed LLC
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