re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

If anyone knows anyone who lives around Trenton, Cheifland general area (near Gainesville) please ask them to email me at:

alphaandomegatd@gmail.com

That is a little farther south than we usually respond to but we could even go a little further south. We usually opt to setup in smaller areas that might not be served by the Red Cross. But in a place that can use the 1200 meals.

Also if anyone in that general area can email me info about other places we could go, maybe a little further south or east. We can provide 1000-1200 hot FREE meals every day.

What we need in a hosting site is:

1. Large parking lot with 2 entrances so food can be handed out "drive thru" style. Needs to be large enough for mobile kitchen, smoking trailer, sleeping trailer.
2. A few extra volunteers (3-4) to help assemble the plates and hand them out.
3. Running water is a plus but not a requirement. We bring a large amount but it makes cleaning up easier.

Thanks for any help.

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Bad news, Otis. They just closed Disney Wed. and Thursday.

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TuscanyWest

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Due to Hurricane Ian’s anticipated impacts on Central Florida, Walt Disney World has announced park closures, reduced operating hours, and cancelled entertainment through at least Friday, September 30, 2022.

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4pm CDT; 5pm EDT advisory cone and forecast discussion:



Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

The pressure on the last Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft fix
fell to about 952 mb, indicating that Ian is restrengthening
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The eye of Ian remains
well-defined on visible imagery, although radar data from Key West
suggest that an eyewall replacement could be in the initial stages.
The initial wind speed is set to 105 kt, matching a blend of
earlier SFMR and flight-level wind data. The plane data also
showed that the area of hurricane-force winds is growing on the
east side of the cyclone.

Ian is moving east-of-due-north, or 010/9-kt, with occasional
wobbles to the north-northeast. A track toward the north-northeast
is expected for the next couple of days while it moves between a
ridge over the Bahamas and a trough over the western Gulf of Mexico.
There has been some model convergence this afternoon showing Ian
remaining stronger and vertically deeper through landfall. This
solution results in a faster track, again adjusted to the southeast,
and the new forecast is moved in that direction. This new NHC track
is close to the corrected model consensus and between the quicker
ECMWF and slower GFS models. It should be emphasized that this
track remains uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering
features leading to big speed and track differences down the line,
not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. In a few
days, more of the guidance is showing Ian interacting with a
shortwave trough over the southeastern United States, causing the
system to move back over the northwestern Atlantic in the longer
range, before turning northwestward back over land. The day 3-5
track forecast is also shifted eastward, although significant
re-strengthening is not expected at long range.

The outflow pattern of the hurricane is beginning to be impinged
upon in the southwestern quadrant, a sign that upper-level
southwesterly flow is starting to affect the outer circulation.
While the shear should increase up through landfall, it is just too
close-to-call whether it starts to weaken Ian or not, or whether the
larger system is able to resist the shear. Additionally, an eyewall
replacement cycle could be in its initial phases, although
predicting these structural changes is extremely difficult. The new
forecast is near the last one, a little higher than the consensus.
I should note that whether Ian comes ashore as category 4 hurricane
or a large category 3 after an eyewall cycle, avoiding a large and
destructive hurricane for Florida seems very unlikely, and residents
should heed the advice of local emergency management officials.

The new forecast necessitates a Hurricane Warning for portions of
extreme southwestern Florida, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the
rest of southeastern Florida that wasn't previously under a warning.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact track as some
additional adjustments to the track are possible. Significant wind,
storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is increasingly likely along the
Florida west coast where a storm surge warning is in effect, with
the highest risk from Naples to the Sarasota region. Residents in
these areas should listen to advice given by local officials and
follow any evacuation orders for your area.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning
with tropical storm conditions expected overnight. Devastating wind
damage is expected near the core of Ian. Residents should rush all
preparations to completion.

3. Heavy rainfall will affect most of the Florida Peninsula for the
next several days, spreading to the rest of the Southeast U.S. by
Thursday and Friday, likely causing flash, urban, and small stream
flooding. Considerable flooding is expected with widespread,
prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected across central
Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 24.0N 83.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 25.3N 82.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 26.6N 82.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 27.6N 82.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 28.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 30/0600Z 29.4N 81.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 31.0N 81.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/1800Z 34.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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Forecaster Blake

Hurricane and tropical storm warnings were expanded.

Ian is gonna drag his balls all the way across this state! No tea bagging allowed!

A few shot before. The back of our house is facing east which is where the big winds will come from. Front is facing west towards the gulf.

We are right at I75.

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MoarKilometers

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Can you email me at alphaandomegatd@gmail.com?

Storm already knocked chairs in pool, I see.

My boss is in Bradenton, fiance on the A team at one of the hospitals. One of my other colleagues is just east of Bradenton i think. Both were really calm all day. Then just before close I start gettin seemingly frantic messages about covering their duties and reports and other stuff they generally do. I was 3 steps ahead though (Thanks TD) They were just acting like they would have electricity throughout this whole thing. I think our hurricane meeting might have gotten their attention some.

clearly they have not been following TD.